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In reply to: Danville on Tuesday 01/07/08 08:04pm

will it never end?






Crude rebounds on Iran-Israel row

Wire services


Crude rose more than a $1 today after slipping from a record above $143 a day ago as tension surrounding Iran's nuclear programme returned to focus and outweighed concerns over eroding US demand.


US crude rose $1.15 cents to $141.15 a barrel by 0607 GMT, while London Brent crude rose $1.08 cents to $140.91.


Fears of crude supply and flow disruption in the Middle East, as the Iran-Israel row over Tehran's nuclear developments escalates, had helped pushed crude to a $143.67 peak yesterday.


"The market has been worried about the tensions involving Iran and that remains a supportive factor for the oil price," said David Moore, a commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.


In a war of words between the Iranian and US military, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Tehran would impose controls on shipping in the Middle East Gulf and Strait of Hormuz if it were attacked.


The US Navy's Fifth Fleet said the US and its allies would not allow Iran to hamper shipping in the Gulf.


Roughly 40% of the world's traded crude moves through the narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula.





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Overnight US LIBOR 1st June ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ 2.54


US overnight LIBOR back to 2.54 last night (still the spread remains relatively high), lets see if it comes down over next week or so. Im still really surprised by the massive move on 30th June.. I could be crazy, or it looks like banks are ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“playingÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the system by hoarding cash on the day their books are revealed, and thus are providing a completely false picture.

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Might be time to try a few longs. But don't get too attached to them. Bear market rallies are short and sharp. Stay nimble. Stop losses everyone.




Okay. We think we saw selling capitulation Tuesday, a V bounce which formed a Hammer Candlestick pattern on the daily charts, often seen at the end of multi-week declines. We believe a multi-week bottom has finally arrived, and prices should correct the decline from May 2008, perhaps into our July 22nd phi mate turn date.

We recently showed a Fibonacci Cluster turn window that was from June 17th to July 1st. The Dow Industrials had a closing low for the recent decline on June 27th, 2008 at 11,346.51. That could represent the closing bottom. The intraday bottom was likely today, July 1st at 11,183.43. If the July 27th closing bottom sticks, that would likely be our June phi mate turn, coming five trading days after our best mathematical fit date of June 20th. We do not believe the coming rally will represent the end of this Bear market. No, just a temporary reprieve to work off extreme oversold conditions. We believe there is a nasty decline, very nasty, coming once this multi-week rally ends, probably starting in mid to late July. hat decline could last deep into the autumn.

The Industrials got crushed for 166.59 points in the morning, but that was likely a selling capitulation, and a V bounce followed, the Industrials rallying back 198 points, ending the day up 32.25 points Tuesday, closing at 11,382.26. Our previous first scenario count considered wave 3 down of {iii} down of {3} down was in process, a sharp ecline. We believe that labeling is an alternate now, and that what had been our alternate labeling is now our top count, a higher degree micro wave 1 down, within wave iii down just completed, with wave 2 up starting now, perhaps lasting into our July phi mate turn. NYSE volume was higher at 116 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 51 percent, declining issues at 58 percent, wth upside points a 55 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 2 points to 372, while Supply Pressure fell 1 point to 451, telling us selling action was reversed by buying, with neither side dominating.

Tuesday's McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to negative -200.66. Another small change in the M.O. Tuesday, suggests a large price move is likely over the next two days. The Summation Index fell to negative -1,093.46. We have seen bottoms near this negative summation index level. NYSE New Highs fell to 48, with New Lows rising sharply to 652, also a level where we have seen bottoms.

The NASDAQ 100 rose 25.62 points Tuesday, closing at 1,862.71. The Russell 2000 rose 1.93 points Tuesday, closing at 691.59. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 8.77 points, closing at 458.65 Tuesday. July Gold closed sharply higher at 942.5, inside an accumulation opportunity short-term. Silver rose sharply to 18.24, and Oil closed at a new all-time closing high at 141.75. The Dollar fell 0.13 to 72.39, along its journey toward the sixties, then eventually the 40's. Bonds were flat at 115^16. The VIX fell 0.30 to 23.65.

We show several indicators are at levels tonight that have traditionally been associated with bottoms, so if you have the time, you might want to study the newsletter.



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In reply to: Danville on Wednesday 02/07/08 12:35am



this market is out of my trading range, so my view, might misleading, that's why i better stay sideline.



as i said yesterday, the LIBOR rate spike is trigered by both end of months thing and rumours about Lehman go broke.


LIBOR, and oil price are the two things that i'm focus at atm.



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Hi All,


The following is the performance of our major Indices since their highs as at close of business on 30th June 2008.


Top 20 - 22.4%

Top 50 - 23.3%

Top 100 - 23.7%

Top 200 - 23.9%

All Ords - 22.4%

Discretionary - 46.2%

Energy - 1.6%

Financial - 39.1%

Gold - 22.2%

Health - 15.9%

Information - 24.9%

Midcap 50 - 26.3%

Materials - 9.9%

Metals - 9.9%

Industrial - 39.5%

Property Trust - 44.5%

Staples - 22.5%

Small Ordinaries - 27.0%

Telecom - 18.2%

Utilities - 34.0%


The Index that is of interest is the Discretionary Index, down 46.2%.


This index is made up of stocks which in the good times surge ahead. In other words people are spending their spare money on what we could call non essential items (though I am sure there are some that would not agree). The stocks in this Index include : ABS, ALL, BBG, FLT, HVN, JBH and others.




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