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Danville

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In reply to: early birds on Friday 27/06/08 10:03am

i think more than Q2 earnings, it will be the Q3/Q4 forecasts that will determine market direction..

 

remember since the last reports most analysts were expecting a bounce in Q3 and Q4, and market priced in a 20%+ growth for S&P 500 earnings.. there will be some major dis-appointments..

 

wats worse is bernanke and paulsons cards are on the table .. no more rate cuts .. most of free money has already been handed out to consumers ... and it looks like this time no one will save the markets..

 

on the contrary can anyone see a glimmer of positive here?

 

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In reply to: thresher on Friday 27/06/08 11:51am

remember since the last reports most analysts were expecting a bounce in Q3 and Q4, and market priced in a 20%+ growth for S&P 500 earnings.. there will be some major dis-appointments

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not 20% plus theresher,

i can recall that they predict the growth will be 12--15% for x--financials for S&P500,....that is when spx traded 1380---1400ish.

 

it is perfect storm for market, GS come out "conviction sell" on Citi, predicting another massive wright down and capital injuction to come for Citi, and ML. then hot money all flow out of market into commodity, especially oil.

 

stand here alone, i think this funny cycle will be broken. either, commodity crash down or market rally up.......one has to be right.

keep eye on aussie top 20's, it is best indication for where smart money is heading.

 

thumper, that 200week ma looks like nothing, or is it??

me expirence tells me that market will snap back to retest it very soon. most of major long term support line will be retested when it didn't acting at first place.

 

it is bear market, but plenty trading can be done, long and short!!

 

 

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In reply to: early birds on Friday 27/06/08 01:57pm

Hi eb,

 

heres the latest data from S&P themselves.

 

2007 q4 15.22

2008 q1 16.62

2008 q2* 22.23

2008 q3* 24.53

2008 q4* 26.00

 

* estimate

 

so for Q208 expecting 33% rise from Q108 (22.23/16.62)..

note: in april they were forecasting Q108 to be 19.56.. but it came in at 16.62 (15% lower than expected !)

 

here another interesting one.. they are currently expecting Q308 to be higher than july 2007 (24.06)..

 

put another way they rekon US companies will do better next quarter than July 2007 - before all the sub-prime, debt collapses, credit issues, bank failures, consumer sentiment plunge, oil price spike, unemployment rise etc etc .. !!

 

my belief is this is just starting to be factored in now, as the market suddenly realises that quick recovery they were expecting for Q3 and Q4 was a delusion ..

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In reply to: Danville on Friday 27/06/08 04:19pm

have you see the "shoping list of JPM" Dan??

 

WAMU is on the top line.

 

can big hedge wins the war aganst Fed??

 

looks like they are gaining up hand atm.

 

remember, soros won the war aganst BoE back then.

 

my bet is still on Benny the commie Fed, although the doubt is start to creep in my head.

 

 

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