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In reply to: thresher on Saturday 21/06/08 08:23pm

really appreciated theresher,


if we can get over night rate update every day that will be much better.


my guess for this late round bashs on financials has more to do with set good bases for sector consolidation than anything. i do notice that us bank sector made new lows few days ago, but it bounced off downtrend support line last night, if i'm right, it will have sizeble rebound next week. let's face it, all these financial firms are in better shape than few months ago when bear stearn fiascle strikes and unlikely to see any of major banks go through that agian any time soon, thanks to Benny the commie Fed.

the problem for financials going forward is too many firms chase much smaller pie, so that leads to need of re-shuffle within the sector-----big fish eats small one, and the one who is more close to Fed will get better meal[likes of JPM}. once it get started, then massive short cover will sent market back up agian.

when i saw those major IBs come out bash it's own sector all together{likes of GS, ML, MS, BARCLAY eg......} that made me wondering........... why?? and above is my answer.


whether my guess work is wrong or right?? we shaw see it within next few weeks.




it mentioned LIBOR rate in this clip.





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McHugh today:


Stocks could be approaching a short-term bottom soon, and it is possible our June 20th +/- phi mate turn date will be a bottom. However, this bottom is not "the" bottom, just the first leg of Minuette degree wave iii down, micro wave 1 down. That's how we see it. If we are wrong, then stocks will crash over the next two to four weeks. It is pretty much one of the two, a multi-week corrective rally of the decline from early May starting nex week, or a crash. How's that for a bizarre forecast? We do believe stocks will nosedive, but we expect that will more likely occur after this coming short-term corrective bounce. So the alternate labeling shown over the past week is at least equal to our top scenario, and we lean toward it having a slight edge. This doesn't mean we couldn't see the coming bottom much lower than Friday's close, after more selling early next week. In Bear markets, catching a bottom is like grabbing a javelin bare-handed in mid-flight.

The Industrials plunged 220.40 points Friday, closing at 11,842.69. Our top count considers wave 3 down of {iii} down of {3} down has started, a sharp decline. There is the alternate possibility that higher degree micro wave 1 down, within wave iii down, is completing, and wave 2 up will soon start, from our June 20th +/- phi mate turn, perhaps lasting into our July phi mate turn. We show that alternate labeling later in this report. We've been saying for weeks that we believe prices could be headed for the 11,500ish area over the next month, with 9,750 a strong possibility in 2008 should prices drop decisively below 12,000. The Industrials are getting pretty close to that 11,500 target. The Industrials fell 450 points from the closeMonday when the latest Hindenburg Omen was confirmed, through Friday's intraday low of 11,818. They are down 827 points from the most recent phi mate turn date, May 29th's top.

The Dow Industrials are sporting a  Head & Shoulders Top pattern, which is confirmed, meaning the probability of the downside target being reached is quite high. That downside price target is 11,500ish.  On page 20 we show the S&P 500 has a confirmed H&S top with a downside target of 1,230.

There is a 34 year rising trend-channel from 1974, and its bottom boundary is passing through the 12,050ish area at this time. And the Industrials closed 200 points under that level Friday, close to a decisive break. Think about this. The 1987 crash did not breach that bottom boundary, nor did the 911 decline. If we break decisively below that trend-channel, it would signal a devastating Bear Market is confirmed, one that has much farther to go on the downside. We show that trend-channel on page 13.

The Russell 2000 fell 12.10 points Friday, closing at 725.73. The NASDAQ 100 plunged 54.30 points Friday, closing at 1,928.39. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 6.17 points Friday to close at 415.43. Gold rose to 901.8, Silver closed at 17.40, Oil rose, Bonds rose, and the Dollar fell.

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Hi EB,


Ive usually tracked the 3 month LIBOR rate rather than overnight .. you will find that the overnight US LIBOR has been coming down and is very close to fed rate .. here is the problem with it, if you can get funds from fed and also swap crappy debt at same time, why get cash from other banks .. also because fed facilities have been extended to primary dealers (IBs) and not just deposit holding banks its even more vague .. when fed stops these facilities, then i'll use overnight LIBOR as a true indication to measure "true" cost of money..


whereas 3 month LIBOR avoids that problem to a degree.. as fed is only extending money in max 1 month windows (last i checked).. also much more debt is priced based on 3 month LIBOR so its impacts goes beyond those banks to hundreds of trillions of debt/CDS on those debts..


if my statements are incorrect please do inform me, as im still learning bout all of this and its relatively new to me..

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This is what Colin Twiggs said in his trading diary:



The Dow broke through 12000 and is headed for a test of primary support at 11750. Large volumes are attributable to triple witching hour: the simultaneous expiry of stock index futures, stock index options and stock options on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.



Long Term: Failure of primary support at 11750 would offer a target of 12000-(13000-12000)=11000. Twiggs Money Flow fall below its March low signals unusual selling pressure and support is unlikely to hold.

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In reply to: thresher on Saturday 21/06/08 10:33pm

if my statements are incorrect please do inform me, as im still learning bout all of this and its relatively new to me..



no, thresher. your statement is correct.

reason i'm asking you to up date e over night rate, is that i like to see if there is another liquidity crunch in the financial system. and i think best way to track it, is to see if there is any unusual movement for the swaps overnight.

i notice that you are the one is focus on this market, that's why i ask you to keep us informed with this market. it is important piece of data these days.


when Danville open up this board for few of us index sclapler, is to help each other with infos and thoughts with the market, and share our little tricks how to make few bucks here and there.


so if we all provide the infos to this board, then all of us will be much better informed to dealing with this market. especailly at current market condition we need to help each other even more.


i do appreciate your posts mate, just that i'm a greedy bugger, try to squeez more out of you. sorry if that cunsums too much time of you, you don't have to do it if you feel anoying.








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In reply to: early birds on Sunday 22/06/08 11:49am

Hi EB,


just thought id provide my views about overnight LIBOR vs 3 month and which one i track.. I am more than happy to help .. this is a great forum and thread .. have learnt much from you, danville and other here.. so if i can help in any way, my pleasure .. not annoyed at all.




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[my logical is if globle economy going to be stuffed, why BHP still near all time high?? if that is wrong case, then why NAB can't make more money than few years ago?? one has to be right!! ]


Thanks EB, your logic makes sense


I got a quick profit on NAB http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif out again now though




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In reply to: thresher on Tuesday 24/06/08 06:07pm

thanks thresher, really really appreciated.


so, it is 85pips to Fed fund. swap is geting little wider. not dissaster though, after GS scared crap out of market last night.


oil seems still be the string to pull market down atm!!

it is up to $38/b right now.


tough going for the bulls!! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif



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