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Danville

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While month-end flows can undermine technical setups, it can be seen on the chart below that the S&P500 formed a Doji candle at the top of the trend channel from where we have been expecting a pullback. Should the S&P500 now break and close below near-term support at 4500, it would signal a correction towards trend channel support at 4420/00 is underway. Keeping in mind, if the S&P500 were to see a sustained break (at least two consecutive closes) above the top of the trend channel, it would indicate further upside potential towards 4700.

 

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keep eye on SPX. i for one lean to retrace, but market will give a final answer i guess!!

 

 

ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7506. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7540, and support viewed at 7475.

 

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bit of hit and run tactic to trade these index for me atm!! :o

 

 

 

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Ahead of tomorrow night’s highly anticipated US payrolls data, the S&P500 formed a second consecutive Doji candle at the top of the trend channel from where we have been expecting a pullback. Doji candles will often form ahead of big data releases reflecting squaring up/indecision, so we don’t want to over emphasise this development. However, should the S&P500 now break and close below near-term support at 4500, it would signal a correction towards trend channel support at 4420/00 is underway. Keeping in mind, if the S&P500 were to see a sustained break (at least two consecutive closes) above the top of the trend channel, it would indicate further upside potential towards 4700

 

think of pull back is likely case. imho

 

as commodites weaker last night's session and BHP GO X--DIVY. bit retrace for asx200 today!

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Fresh record highs overnight for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq as initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 340k, resetting expectations for a strong US payrolls report this evening. The S&P500 closed higher at 4537. (+0.28%), the Nasdaq eased lower into the end of the session, closing at 15604 (-0.05%), while the Dow Jones closed 131 points higher at 35444. The pattern of consecutive Dojis in the S&P500 is also being replicated in the Nasdaq as viewed below. As noted yesterday, Doji candles often form ahead of big data releases reflecting squaring up/indecision, so we don’t want to over emphasise this development. However if the same pattern was to occur without a significant data print to follow, it would be the set-up to a short trade, every time!!! Returning to the S&P500, providing it remains below trend channel resistance now at 4550, a break and close below near-term support at 4500, would signal a correction towards trend channel support at 4420/00 is underway. Keeping in mind, if the S&P500 were to see a sustained break (at least two consecutive closes) above the top of the trend channel 4550, it would indicate further upside potential towards 4700.

 

ASX200 finished 41 points lower yesterday at 7485, with more than 30 points of the fall dividend related as two index big hitters, BHP and CSL, traded ex-dividend. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7500. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7530, and support viewed at 7460.

 

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After a fifth consecutive Doji candle in a row, providing the S&P500 remains below trend channel resistance at 4550, a break and close below near-term support at 4510/00 would signal a correction towards trend channel support at 4420 underway. Keeping in mind, if the S&P500 were to see a sustained break (at least two consecutive closes) above the top of the trend channel 4550, it would negate the risks of a pullback and indicate further upside potential towards 4700

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not so sure SPX will pull back at it's current level as this study suggested . keep eye on the charts,

 

prepare to be wrong [ use stops for both----long or short]

 

 

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US stock markets were closed overnight for the Labour Day holiday. In their absence, European share markets rallied after US jobs data on Friday heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay its tapering announcement. Boosting sentiment ahead of the European open, another day of solid gains in the Nikkei as it closed 1.83% higher on prospects of new economic policies (stimulus) once Prime Minister Suga steps down at the end of this month. The Nikkei remains on track for a test and break of the February 30,715 high as outlined in this article last week here, before a rally towards 32,000.

 

ASX200 finished 6 points higher yesterday at 7529, after rallying 88 points from its intraday 7440 low as dip buyers again stepped in to buy weakness. The ASX200 is expected to open 15 points higher his morning at 7544. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7560, and support viewed at 7500.

 

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When we left off on Friday, 8/27, the SPX had just acquired one of the, then, two live bullish targets of 4,515. And with last week's continued tepid advance, the index achieved the slightly higher objective of 4,535, as well.

 

 

 

2

The subsequent indecision disallowed any further breakouts from occurring. Thus, we come into the post Labor Day period with ZERO live bullish or bearish formations – a rare scenario.

 

 

 

3

In 2021 alone, we’ve now witnessed NINE bullish patterns achieve their upside targets vs. just ONE bearish pattern attain its downside objective.

 

 

 

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This means that every consolidation phase simply has been used as a building block for the next bullish continuation pattern to form, the next breakout to happen and the next set of new highs to materialize.

 

 

 

5

 

We need to continue to respect this, while understanding that the preceding period has been even quieter than normal: The SPX’s last 1% loss happened on 8/12 – 12 days ago.

 

 

 

6

 

The index’s last 1% gain occurred on 7/23 – now 30 trading sessions ago. Now THAT particularly is striking given that the longest prior streak in 2021 was 20 (5/21-6/17). In fact, August was the first month in which the SPX did NOT log a 1% advance since December, 2019.

 

 

 

7

 

Considering we’ve now entered the typically volatile September-October months, many market participants are anticipating a change of character. That potential can’t be denied, especially with the drawdowns so shallow lately.

 

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SPX juat had little pull back as i'm tiping........ looks a pause ........

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So far, traders have been content with treating September like August, with the SPX having been confined to a tight trading range over the last six days (8/30-yesterday).

 

n fact, it looks quite similar to the period just preceding this one, when the index traded in a narrow band for five trading sessions.

 

Two names on the above list are Semis, and their prowess has helped the SMH remain in proximity to its own recent highs, too. While SMH has done well in 2021, it’s struggled when trying to immediately extend breakouts. In other words, buying dips within the uptrend has been a better strategy. It will be interesting to see if this time is any different.

 

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we’re still waiting for the next pattern to present itself. Indeed, a break above – or below – this range would prompt a new price target. But it would be only 30 points away and not exactly a gamechanger for either side.

 

 

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September is beginning to remind why it’s one of the weakest months of the year on a seasonal basis. The S&P500 and the Dow Jones fell for a third straight session on concerns over the delta variant's impact on economic growth, following disappointing payrolls last week. The S&P500 closed at 4514 (-0.13%), the Dow Jones closed 69 points lower at 35,031, while the Nasdaq closed at 15621(-0.35%). While the S&P500 failed to register a daily close below near-term support at 4510/00, there are signs the expected correction towards trend channel support at 4430 is begrudgingly underway. The Dow Jones appears to be a more willing participant, closing for a second day below trendline support from the March 2020 low. Should the Dow Jones break and close below the August 34690 low, look for the correction to extend towards the 200-day ma at 33,000.

 

 

ASX200 finished 18 points lower yesterday at 7512, once again recovering from early losses as dip buyers stepped in to buy weakness. A break/close below support 7440/25 would likely see an end to this trading pattern before a push towards support 7320/00, my preferred buying level. The ASX200 is expected to open 34 points lower this morning at 7478. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7515, and support viewed at 7445

 

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please DYOR as always!!!

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The SPX’s strongest rallies in 2021 have come from dips within the uptrend, not on breakouts. Thus, the best risk/reward set up would be seeing the SPX:

 

 

 

1. Drop to the bottom of the 2021 trading channel and hold.

 

2. Seeing a bearish pattern form, FAIL and create a bear trap.

 

3. Visit and hold above the 50-Day MA.

 

4. Drop from the Upper Bollinger Band to the Lower Bollnger Band, hold and reverse.

 

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the chart looks that way......

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The S&P500 and the Dow Jones fell for a fourth straight session as September begins to live up to its reputation for the weakest month of the year. The average decline in September for the S&P500 over the past ten years has been -0.60%. Negative prints can be observed in five of the ten years, including a -7% fall in 2011, a -2.5% fall in 2015, and a -4% fall in 2020. The overnight close in the S&P500 below support at 4510/00 indicates the expected correction towards trend channel support at 4435 is underway. The Dow Jones closed for a third session below trendline support from the March 2020 low. Should the Dow Jones break and close below the August 34690 low, look for the correction to extend towards the 200-day ma at 33,000.

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more of stats and basic TA stuff, with loosen monetary policy for most of central banks, a correction is the worst [ i doubt market can go that low esp for DOW] imho though.

 

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The ASX200 closed 142 points lower yesterday at 7369. The break of the band of support noted at 7440/25 triggering a wave of sell stops and momentum sellers, as all sectors finished in the red. Our articles and the Morning Brief have noted the 7320/00 trend channel as the preferred buying level in recent weeks. As such, we are now looking for stabilisation/basing in this region, aware that should this fail to materialise, a deeper decline is likely underway. The ASX200 is expected to open 10 points higher this morning at 7383. Resistance on the day is expected at 7418, and support viewed at 7340.

 

 

 

 

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