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Danville

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The NDX, XLK, IWF and OEF made new highs after last week’s bounce back, but their respective 14-Day RSI indicators did NOT. Those are clear negative divergences.

 

This isn’t a huge surprise given how extended the momentum indicators had gotten through the middle of July: each RSI reading hit the mid-70s. At some point the pace just has to slow. That may have begun to happen again now.

Best case, this just gives the NDX (and others) now time to consolidate, regroup and construct fresh bullish formations. Worst case, a bigger drawdown could materialize. We’ll see it in the pattern work over the next few days and weeks.

 

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big tech name looks ok!"! so as SPX , plenty peoples out there try to "buy the dipper" these days!!

 

 

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The S&P 500, one of the most widely followed US stock indices, closed the week within a whisker of record highs the index has consistently found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a strong, healthy uptrend. That said, the RSI indicator is showing a bearish divergence, forming lower highs at each of the last three price peaks; this divergence signals waning buying pressure and elevated odds of a near-term top, especially if this week’s earnings report come in soft or the highly-anticipated US infrastructure bill encounters a hiccup.

 

Regardless, traders are likely to buy any short-term dips in the index unless and until support at the rising 50-day EMA is conclusively broken.

 

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SPX STILL BULLISH. bet for the upside, but with the stops little tighter .

 

as for ASX200 cash

think it will have a battle at 7400, there will be no surprise to me that bulls win the battle. imho

 

 

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S&P500: Keep the bigger picture in perspective with the recent moves as this chart suggests there is a lot more room to move with the overall bullish run. However, this does not discount the odd pullback along the way as trends do not travel in straight lines forever; they tend to zig and zag their way along either bullish or bearish paths. Note how the recent Covid dip does not even figure on this chart!

 

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jump start then pulling back action last night, gives bearish feeling, for scalping trade. but over all picture is still bullish.

 

 

so as ASX200 TODAY. more likely bit of pull back, given strong performance triggered by MA activities.

 

 

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The SPX has traded in a 1.3% range (4,372 – 4,429) since gapping higher on Friday, 7/23 – its second 1% gain of that week. And while it’s failed to extend that pop, the index has been doing its best to digest that quick and fervent bounce from the 50 Day MA.

 

 

 

2

 

That’s been kind to its pattern work up to this stage. Below we take a closer look of each of the SPX’s live and potential bullish and bearish variations.

 

 

 

3

First, the most recent breakout through 4,375 (which took place on that same day of 7/23) was quickly tested 7/27. It held. The 4,515 target remains in play.

 

 

 

4

The 6/24 cup and handle breakout was threatened on Monday, 7/19, but that downturn was short-lived. It now has a good deal more wiggle room, and the upside target of 4,4600 is about 1.6% away as of last night’s close.

 

 

 

5

That particular pattern breakout is reminiscent of the April 1st version; it took 11 weeks before that target was achieved. Ironically, that finally happened on 6/24, the SAME day that the June breakout occurred.

 

 

 

6

By holding in place since 7/23, a potential bullish flag has developed. That target would be above 4,600 if we do, indeed, see a breakout that’s extended upon in quick order.

 

7

 

As is frequently the case, a consolidation phase can often result in a bearish formation, as well. This happened again now. While a break wouldn’t result in an aggressive downside target, it could BEGIN to alter momentum…

 

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which eventually could make a pattern like this a reality. There’s a while to go before this happens – and the biggest bearish formations have not been successful for over a year now - but it’s something to monitor if the bullish flag isn’t’ completed soon.

 

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do think "buy the dippers" still alive at this stage

 

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After yesterday’s decline, the SPX now has logged five declines and four advances in the last nine trading sessions. That’s stunted the prior upside momentum, but in chart form, it’s helped the index continue to trace out the potential bullish flag formation.

 

 

 

2

 

Let’s not forget that this period has included the biggest names reporting earnings and the latest FOMC decision – the combination of which was thought to be a catalyst for the next big move.

 

 

 

3

With the preceding lift being so light, the concern was that said “next big move” was going to be down. So far that hasn’t happened…

 

 

 

4

Even though we’ve seen discouraging adv-dec sessions, like yesterday, breadth has bounced backed each time over the last few weeks and months – sometimes quite strongly. In fact, the A/D line quietly made a new all-time high on Tuesday – ahead of the SPX.

 

 

 

5

As we know, the SMH Semiconductor ETF seemingly can do no wrong recently. It logged its sixth straight advance for the first time since May, 2020 on Wednesday and extended its breakout from that sizable bullish pattern, too.

 

 

 

6

It will be a key test now for SMH, knowing that past big multi-week moves have NOT seen follow through YTD.. And, as noted earlier this week, a Demark Sell Signal (13) just hit as the SMH broke out.

 

 

 

7

 

Each prior Sell Signal led to pullbacks soon thereafter in 2021. None of these wrecked the bigger pattern, but another quick pullback again here could have implications to the greater Tech space and the market in general.

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1

The SPX now has alternated gains and losses the last eight days. Prior to that, the index logged a five-day winning streak and then a quick two day sell off. If we put that all together, we get a pretty tight, sideways market, i.e., a bull flag pattern.

 

 

 

2

 

The bull flag simply shows that SPX has digested a rally without incurring much price damage.

 

 

 

3

Currently, the SPX remains in the middle of both the YTD channel and LONG-TERM channel.

 

 

 

4

The long term channel (in log scale) show just how minimal the moves have been in 2021 vs. last year. The market’s complexion changed September, 2020 after a tranquil July and August, a period that was led by Large Cap Growth. That, undoubtedly, will be on all our minds in the coming weeks once again.

 

 

 

5

The SPX has been shielded from the volatility under the surface. But adding up all of the moving parts results in the uptrend we have now, with rotation arriving when and where we’ve needed it.

 

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still bullish.

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As noted in yesterday’s Performance Breakdown piece, last week marked the SPX’s 11th straight week of weekly higher highs for only the NINTH time since 1985 – 36 years.

 

 

 

The last 11-week streak occurred nearly 10 years ago – from 12/13/11 – 3/2/2012.

 

 

 

The last longer streak happened from 12/3/2010 – 2/18/2011 (12).

 

 

 

The LONGEST weekly streak since ’85 was 16, from 4/25/1997 – 8/8/1997.

 

 

 

In looking at the table and following charts (below), a few things stand out:

 

 

 

1 – The late 2010-early 2011 and late 2011-early 2012 occurrences bookended the intensely volatile 2011 August – November period.

 

 

 

2 – Three streaks happened during the Internet boom (’95, ’97, ’98), including the LONGEST run of 16 in 1997.

 

 

 

3 – Big drawdowns happened within three months twice: ‘97:-13%, ‘98:-22%

 

 

 

4 – Three occurred in the middle of extended uptrends, with no immediate pause – 2006, 1995, 1993, 1989.

 

 

 

5 – NONE led to immediate major market tops.

 

 

 

The takeaway: this is yet another rarely seen bullish reading born from one of the strongest bounces off a key market low. And like so many before it, history suggests that while we shouldn’t expect this type of persistent uptrend to continue into perpetuity, there’s little precedent to suggest a major top is forming.

 

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all history stats . but from chart point of view -----market are bullish

 

 

asx200 looks more bullish than others, as commodities had retrace from record high, focus on banks and utility might be better bet!! imho

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The SPX is up 0.01% for the week after the first two days. That’s hardly impressive, but yesterday’s barely noticeable 10 bps gain was good enough for the index to notch its 12th straight weekly higher high.

 

Not every one of the prior 11 weeks led to a weekly gain, though. Three times, the SPX reversed lower and finished in negative territory by Friday’s close. The biggest down week over that time was the -1.9% loss for the week ending 6/18. But, needless to say, that was just a speed bump in an otherwise persistent summer extension.

Said extension has allowed various bullish patterns to form, fire and achieve their upside targets. And yesterday brought the SPX even closer to acquiring the 4,460-objective from the 6/24 breakout.

The 7/23 breakout was tested twice and held

And the bull flag has remained in play despite the SPX’s non-movement the last few days.

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please check out SPX chart to see above comments , it's just one of the studies after all!! looks bullish !!

 

we might see little bit pull back as RIO goes x--divy today, i guess people will sell it within next few days.

 

 

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ASX200 finished +4 points higher yesterday at 75888, another fresh record closing high, supported by the Communications Sector following a good FY21 earnings report from Telstra, which closed +3.66% higher. The ASX200 is expected to open higher this morning at 7612. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7620, and support viewed at 7575.

 

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bullish as asx200 is, it is Friday, not favour of getting too long, esp for short term trade. imho

 

 

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ASX200 finished -46 points lower yesterday at 7585, rejecting the top of its eight-month trend channel, as softer China data weighed on the Energy and Materials sector. Bucking the trend A2 Milk (A2M) rallied 12% on takeover speculation. The ASX200 is expected to open slightly higher this morning at 7588. Resistance on the day is viewed at 7620, and support viewed at 7555. BHP reports full-year earnings after the market closes this afternoon.

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bit of retrace, nothing to worry about it at moment ,

 

 

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