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Danville

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The Russell 2000 (small-cap) value stocks fell -2.03% compared to the Russell 2000’s -1.74% decline. The Nasdaq 100 printed a pinbar reversal after failing to hold onto its intraday record high, effectively closing flat. The Nasdaq banks index fell -2.00%, biotech sector was down -1.09% whilst FAANGS escaped the pressure by closing -0.01% on the day. The S&P 500 printed a bearish outside day and closed at a two-day low, falling -0.35%. 10 of its 11 sectors closed in the red led by real estate (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-1.17%). Still, these are not terrifying numbers overall and there is plenty of earnings reports to mull over before we see if equities extend their downside or break to new highs.

 

The ASX 200 is expected to open 4-poijnts higher (effectively flat). Take note of yesterday’s bearish pinbar which reaffirmed its sideways range around 7216 – 7370, which is basically within the bearish engulfing candle on June 21st. That said, bulls may need to wait for a break above 7403 before popping open the champagne. Until then, range-trading strategies are preferred between 7216 – 7403.

 

 

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/delta-lo...20210714-p589m0

 

Delta lockdown will shrink GDP, cost thousands of jobs

John Kehoe

 

Sydney’s prolonged lockdown for an anticipated two months will cause the national economy to shrink in the current quarter and cost thousands of jobs according to economists, stalling momentum in Australia’s bounceback from the virus recession.

 

The $5 billion in government support payments to businesses and households, however, will cushion the blow and help the economy to follow past lockdown and reopening trends by swiftly rebounding once restrictions are eased, market economists said.

 

The spread of the highly infectious COVID-19 delta variant, Melbourne on edge over the discovery of seven new virus cases and Western Australia restricting the entry of Victorians has exacerbated uncertainty over the outlook for businesses, investors and consumers.

 

After 97 locally acquired COVID-19 cases took NSW’s total active community cases to 785, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday extended the greater Sydney lockdown for at least two weeks to July 30, taking the total shutdown to five weeks at a minimum.

 

The intensifying downside risks as a consequence of the virus lockdown could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider delaying a planned tapering of its $200 billion government bond-buying program from September to November, ANZ economists said.

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but from RBNZ to some others central banks start to tapering,

i don't think they are aggressive enough though!! :o

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Indices: US advise against travel to UK

Bond yields were broadly lower as investors remained concerned that the rise of the Delta Variant will weigh on growth. Global stock market indices were broadly lower as investors rushed for the exit, which saw the S&P 500 shed -1.5% with all sectors in the red, led by energy and financial sectors. The Dow Jones fell -2% and cut through its 50-day eMA to a 4-week low whilst the Nasdaq 100 held up relatively well at -0.9% after gapping lower.

 

The Russell 2000 (RUT) is on track to break a 9-month bullish streak, unless it can recoup the -7.8% lost this month with the 8 trading sessions remaining in July. At the current rate of volatility, it is about 1-2 trading days away from testing the January low, but the 200-day eMA is also in the vicinity so there is potential for technical support, even if only briefly so.

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SPX is right on 50 day ma at it's current level, if it go under 4250 next two session, then bulls should give it up .imho

 

asx200----- the future is under 7225, more likely more selling for our market when our cash market opens, the down side target is 7025ish for near term.

if one try to scalping trade ---the it might bounce at 7100ish!!

 

 

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As we know, the SPX spun at its 50-Day MA yesterday, but when the index has dropped back to (or even through) the line over the last year and change, it often tested the moving average AGAIN soon thereafter.

NO pullback (not even last September’s 10% correction) has shaken the SPX loose from its uptrend just yet. And a major reason for this is that bearish chart patterns have failed to play out. There is another chance to change this now, as yesterday’s early break below the 4,290 zone triggered the latest bearish pattern (target 4,185).

The SPX’s 14-Day RSI finished at 43.7, which is near the lower part of its range since April, 2020. The SPX got close to the Lower Bollinger Band discussed yesterday, as well.

SPX: 28% stocks > 20 Day MAs: This is near the lower end of the range, but still is not extreme. The % got lower this past June and January and a handful of times last year, too.

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SPX tested it's 50 day's ma and bounced right back up -----AGAIN !! I CAN see shorts on the run!! [include me]

but the one day sell off that shake the "bulls" i reckon!!

 

 

as for asx200, . stay aside , until things clearer......

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Three days into the week… and we’ve seen a 1% decline, a 1% gain, a bearish pattern triggered, a bearish pattern negated, a bullish pattern threatened, the 50 Day MA successfully tested and a key uptrend line respected.

 

 

 

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Indicator-wise, the 14-Day RSI held in the low 40s again. And while the odds suggest an eventual return to overbought territory at some point, if the same pace is repeated from earlier this year, that may take a bit longer to play out.

 

 

 

3

The Williams %R indicator, however, gets pushed around with more ease on big moves. And that’s nearly back to overbought already. This may mean things could slow down again over the short-term, too

 

 

 

4

From a pattern perspective, it was close, but the most recent breakout held again. The 4,460-target now is just 2.3% away.

 

 

 

5

 

There were a number of marginal head fakes in March, May and June before those patterns worked.

 

If the action repeats what we’ve seen over the last few months, another trustworthy breakout may take some time to materialize.

 

 

 

6

 

So far, the back and forth price action has continued to fit into the YTD upward sloping channel. That, too, was threatened on Monday but never gave way.

 

 

 

7

 

If/when the SPX does make new highs again, we’d like to see the Cumulative Adv-Dec Line breakout, too, at relatively the same time. The last two days have helped, which was especially important after last week’s 70% negative reading and this Monday’s 15% day.

 

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so. SPX gonna targeting 4600ish!!

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34% of the SPX and 38% of the NDX are reporting over the next five days, with many of these components being held by both indices – 33 in total.

 

 

 

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The focus will be on those high profiled shared names. The reason is obvious – those 33 largely have been responsible for the extension of the Large Cap Growth space and its clear relative strength over the last few months. Clearly, the reactions to earnings will tell the story this week, with the obvious question being how much of a “good number’ is already priced in for many of the biggest names.

 

 

 

3

The NDX just logged its ninth weekly advance in the last 10 weeks, which prompted overbought readings in both its 14-Day AND Weekly RSI indicators as of Friday’s close.

 

 

 

4

27% of the NDX’s stocks now above their Upper Bollinger Bands (UBB), as well, the highest % since early April. The number got even higher over the last year and a half a few times, but the NDX, itself, was lower in the near future each time. This suggests that the short-term risk-reward scenario is challenging again now.

 

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SPX keeps going, so as whole US market. so bullish from chart point of view!!

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The SPX logged its fifth straight advance on Monday, which has arrived within a month of the seven-day advance from 6/24 – 7/2.

There have been various “clusters” of five-day winning streaks since 2009.

 

 

 

Years in which the SPX had clusters of five-day winning streaks: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009

 

 

 

Years in which clusters of five-day winning streaks did NOT occur: 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011

 

In other words, MULTIPLE long winning streaks only occurred in years that the SPX experienced long periods of uptrending price action. The more volatile years had trouble establishing consistent demand, thus, long winning streaks rarely appeared.

Post March’20, it’s safe to say that the index has been in an uptrend once again. And while we know it won’t persist like this forever, clusters of five-day winning streaks have not led to immediate market crashes since the 2009 market lows.

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The ASX 200 rose to a record high overnight to finally see it break out of its 1-month range, in line with its bullish trend. However, futures point to a soft open around 7400 and its prior record high, which could prove to be a pivotal level this session.

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asx200 looks firmly in the uptrend.....

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