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Danville

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The ASX 200 was effectively flat yesterday after early gains were later reversed. Oil prices weighed on energy stocks yesterday whilst travel stocks rallied as the travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has opened up.

 

The day closed with a bearish pinbar on the daily chart, which shows buyer exhaustion just below our 7100 target. Whilst this warns of a potential retracement over the near-term the trend remains bullish above the 6957.40 low.

 

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DYOR

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from https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/04/19/cha...ative-elements/

 

 

In recent years, [there has been a] two-speed nature of stock markets globally. As interest rates fell and investors searching for returns entered the market, their strong preference was for 'low-risk' assets. At different times they have found these qualities in defensive companies, such as consumer staples, real estate and infrastructure, and at other times, in fast-growing businesses in areas such as e-commerce, payments and software. At the same time, investors have been at pains to avoid businesses with any degree of uncertainty, whether that be natural cyclicality within their business or exposed to areas impacted by the trade war. Last year, this division was further emphasised along the lines of 'COVID winners', such as companies that benefited from pantry stocking or the move to working from home, and 'COVID losers', such as travel and leisure businesses. Over the last three years, these trends within markets created unprecedented divergences in both price performance and valuations within markets.

 

 

However, as we noted last quarter, this trend started to reverse at the end of 2020, as a combination of successful vaccine trials and the election of US President Biden pointed to a clearly improved economic outlook. The result was 'real world' businesses in areas such as semiconductors, autos and commodities started to see their stock prices perform strongly and this has continued into the opening months of 2021.

Meanwhile, the fast-growing favourites continued to perform into the new year, though these have since faded as the rise in bond yields accelerated. Many high-growth stocks have seen their share prices fall considerably from their recent highs, with bellwether growth stocks such as Tesla (down 27% from its highs), Zoom (down 45%) and Afterpay (down 35%).

 

Theoretically, rising interest rates have a much greater impact on the valuation of high-growth companies than their more pedestrian counterparts. As such, it is not surprising to see these stocks most impacted by recent moves in bond yields and concerns about inflation.....

... and the ASX is definitely not dominated by high growth, so yes your question is relevant, eb ....

It is kinda strange to me that aussie market not out perform other major market during last three months!! unsure.gifi consider aussie market as conservative market. do i got it wrong?

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ASX 200 Market Internals

 

The ASX 200 began it corrective phase after breaking beneath Monday’s bearish pinbar and snapping a 5-day winning streak. The daily trend remains bullish above 6954, which leaves just under 20 points of downside util this level is tested. Given the weak lead from Wall Street overnight, it may well test (or even breach that level) today. Take note that BHP Group (BHP) release corporate sales at 08:30.

 

SPX had long overdue retrace last session , looks going to test that 4105ish support soon.

 

 

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7095, Almost touched that high EB. Divergence did form and showed an entry on 4H chart.It didn't trigger a trade on the previous setup on 14th.April on 4H.

You would think another test of 7100 at some point. No idea where this support is. May be6870s. Would have to see how todays Daily candle ends, so that's tomorrow morning.

post-10244-1618971564_thumb.png

 

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10 minutes to 4 pm as i typing, asx200 rallied from day low to 6980ish atm, the daily candle looked bullish, also it will finished the day above that 6950 bullish support level.

looks promise for the bulls for cash market at least to say!!

 

thanks cooderman for the chart!! :P

 

 

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ASX 200 was on track for its worst close in two month’s yesterday, dragged down by technology and energy stocks. Yet it managed to recoup losses in the second half of the session to close just -0.3% down for the day, leaving a bullish hammer in its wake. Given the positive lead from Wall Street overnight and recovery on the ASX 200, we could be in for less severe start to today’s session.

 

Whilst the bullish hammer is larger than we’d like, there are key levels nearby which may help splice it up into a more manageable size. Note the lower wick (buying tail) pushed prices back above the 20-day eMA, prior record high and 6957 swing low, which provides a potential support zone between 6938 – 6957. It also suggests strong buying demand above 6900.

 

A break above 7018 confirms yesterday’s bullish hammer.

Our bias remains bullish above the 6938 – 6957 support zone.

The initial target is 7100, followed by the previous record high (just below 7200).

 

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lot of TA stuff. bullish price action as yesterday, it could carry asx200 to all time high soon enough imho.

 

 

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ASX, we doubt US tax news will weigh on it much today. Yesterday, the ASX 200 broke above Wednesday’s hammer high from the get-go, which further suggests the ‘buying tail’ above 6900 has conviction. Barring a sudden shift in sentiment (locally or globally), the bias remains for a run for, and beyond, 7100. However, also take note that like its European counterparts, the ASX 200 is also forming a large bearish hammer, so it would need to close convincingly above this week’s highs to help eradicate that technical warning next week. Ultimately, today’s bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low.

 

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it is Friday, traders will close their positions [long or short].

 

SPX looked bearish -----at least for a short term pull back?? :unsure:

 

 

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So far in 2021, seasonality has worked well. A trading high was notched in February; a trading low was etched in March and so far, April has been decidedly higher, which all has lined up with the 20 year “average†intra-month movement.

 

 

 

2

 

Another trend that we’ve seen since last June that is NOT talked about as much is the appearance of late month weakness. While this hasn’t happened every month, it’s something to monitor, as some of those weak periods have resembled topping patterns, as well.

 

 

 

3

Even as the uptrend has persisted in 2021, there have been a few scares (late January, February and March). We wouldn’t exactly label last week’s digestion as a “scare,†but it was the first slowdown we’ve seen since the March lows.

 

 

 

4

Now, if/when a bigger drawdown happens again soon, let’s remember how the prior tops played out… they didn’t. The downside break attempts were temporary, which only resulted in bear traps – and ultimately new highs yet again.

 

 

 

5

 

Among others, the R2k IWM ETF and the Small Cap Growth IWO ETF both punched through two month downtrend lines last week. Those were necessary FIRST steps.

 

 

 

6

 

The US Dollar is holding where and when it needs to – near a three-month uptrend line. Seeing how it does if/when it reencounters the 50 Day MA near 91.66 will be telling.

 

The 10 Year Yield is bouncing near the 50 Day MA and challenging an important multi-week downtrend line.

 

 

 

9

 

Uranium is trying to bounce near its 50 Day MA for the third time this year. Prior attempts led to strong multi-week rallies.

 

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another solid day for SPX last night session. the bulls in USA seems unstoppable .

 

asx200 future still weak from yesterday, not sure why it has not follow the US market?? :unsure:

i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!

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i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!

 

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:weirdsmiley: , it went opposite to my " prediction". test 7000 and bounced so far. bought few weighing stocks see how it goes !!

asx200 index long has been stopped out!! might go long again if it can close above 7025 by end of cash market!!

 

 

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