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Danville

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The SPX’s ebbs and flows in 2021 continue to closely match its 20 Year Seasonality path.

 

The SPX’s Cumulative A/D Line and the RSP S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFs both made new highs yesterday ahead of the SPX.

 

That being said, the 14-day RSI of the RSP/SPX ratio just hit its most overbought level since July, 2005

 

With today’s early strength, the XLK, NDX and NASDAQ Composite (among others) all will be above last week’s breakdown points. They look like bear traps at this stage.

 

The USD is back under 92 and testing its prior trading range. A failure to hold that point would make the recent bounce look like a BULL trap

 

 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index held at an important support zone last evening, while South Korea continues to build a bullish wedge pattern.

 

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the gyration of the markets [ esp US market, that trapped bulls and bears]. SPX is bullish as it repair the damage last few session.

 

 

asx200 index might follow it today, [ it's Friday, and last few sessions selling , with some of short cover today] at least can see 6775 or even 6800. IMHO

 

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At yesterday’s high point, the SPX got to +6.4% from the 3/4/21 low, which currently ranks as the second-best rally since November 9th. Over that period, the SPX now has logged four trough-to-peak moves of at least 4%, all of which have led to new highs… including this one.

 

 

 

After hitting new highs, an immediate extension today would be the BEST-case scenario, but it’s not a necessity given the strong comeback over the last week and change.

 

That being said, holding near 3,915 today would keep the latest bullish pattern alive, which was triggered yesterday. The upside target is at 4,105.

 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gave up the prior day’s gain, as the topping pattern mentioned yesterday continues to build.

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most of the shorts on SPX has been crushed on Friday's session. inflation expectation up again.

 

expecting asx200 to rise above 6800 on Monday, bullishness will be back as RBA goona keep loosen monetary policy for little longer times. :blush:

 

 

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The SPX begins the second half of March with three live bullish formations vs. zero bearish versions.

 

Seasonality continues to favor the bulls, although the “average†second half rally started a few days early this year. The SPX has had solid success during March’s expiration week recently, up 10/13 times. Last year was an obvious laggard. The SPX’s 15% plummet for the week ending 3/20/20 was the 3rd worst since 1935.

 

The R2k is flashing extreme readings in three categories: % of stocks with overbought 14-Day RSI, % stocks making new highs and % stocks > 200 Day MAs. This suggests short-term caution, but also connotes long term strength.-----sound like a short term pull back for russell200!! :unsure:

 

The US Dollar has been trading decidedly under the 200 Day MA since last May. It’s now a point away. If its downtrend is going to break, a necessary step would be getting back above the 200 Day MA.

Fed still on the loosening term, that will push down dollar i guess!!

 

The VIX is coming off two straight -10% weeks for the first time since last April. Since 2015, it was lower again the next week 5/11 times (45%).

 

The UK’s FTSE 100 is testing a key level today, with a potential double bottom breakout in play.-----------EU market seems is best bet for the bulls from TA, FA point of view!!

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SPX is out of bear trap, seems gonna shoots up again!! :unsure:

 

asx200, it didn't go over 6800 in cash session yesterday, but it's future is closed just above 6800 for last night's session. looks gonna rally up in today's cash session, 6825---68500 would be today's upside target imho!!

 

 

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The SPX achieved a major upside target (3,965) yesterday, which was born from the trading range breakout last November. Another such breakout is in the works again now.

 

With today’s early action, the VIX now has touched the 19 handle for two straight days for the first time since 2/20-2/21/20. Up to this point, the index only closed below the 20 level once since last year’s crash (2/12/21).

 

================================== kinda bullish

 

Calm before the Storm? S&P 500

 

It was a quiet day for the S&P 500. The Index was near unchanged on Tuesday as we head into the Fed meeting on Wednesday afternoon. The big question everyone is waiting to hear the answer to is: Will the Fed address the move high in interest rates (some 65 basis points in 10-year yields) since the last meeting, and if so, how? Will the Fed be restructuring the bond buying program (currently at $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion MBS per month)? Perhaps they will provide a rosier outlook in the dot plot, in which they would move the timeframe forward as to when they would expect to hike rates. Or maybe they do nothing…and continue with the ongoing theme that inflation expectations are transitory and the rise in yields is unsustainable.

 

It seems though, that the large cap S&P 500 is in wait-and-see mode. The index is near unchanged on the day after reaching new highs earlier in the session. However, the range on the day is only 28 handles. If prices do decide to pull back after the meeting, it wouldn’t be that unexpected. Price is grinding up against the top trendline of and ascending wedge and the psychological round number resistance near 4,000. The RSI is diverging with price. Perhaps a spike through 4,000, take out stops, then a pullback? Maybe.

 

But if price did pullback, how low could it go? The most immediate level is the confluence of support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of March 4th to the highs on March 16th, and the upward sloping bottom trendline of the ascending channel near 3876. Below there is the 50% retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the same timeframe near 3846 and 3816,25, respectively. Below there is March 4th lows near 3719.25.

Longer term, if 10-year yields continue to rise, we can expect S&Ps to fall even further. The upward sloping green trendline dates all the way back to January 2018, which crosses near 3675. And then is horizontal support from previous highs near 3587, which also happens to be the 50% retracement level from the September 24th lows to Tuesdays highs.

 

If price breaks below there, the expected target for an ascending wedge, which is a 100% retracement, comes into play. Below 3587, price looks like if could fall rapidly to the target and horizontal support near 3190.

 

It was a very quiet Tuesday. Expect the same heading into the meeting on Wednesday. If the Fed gives the sense that they may begin sooner than later, the Jenga tower may be ready to fall over.

=================================== not so bullish on this study.

if one wants better on the SPX [long or short] set stops little tight. even SPX made new highs, but market breath seems not that decisive !!

 

asx200 future had down session last night., but still think 6800 would be hold , use 6788 for stops , bet on the long side when our cash market starts.....imho!!

 

 

 

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thanks tombeet.

 

my intention is to make this chating room help each other to be better prepared to trade or invest market. exchange infos eg.

 

bit side show is a good way to get on the boring life of traders!! :P

 

seems that i said something that upset nipper, c'mom nipper !! i always appreciated your contribution to this site , if i said something that upsets you, here is my apology [ even i thought i didn't do the crime] :P

 

c'mom nipper!!

 

 

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