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Danville

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Gollygosh,

 

I think it is too early to say whether we are bouncing in any sort of sustainable way. We started the year at about 5435, broke through 6000 in April and it has been downhill from there. As a headless chicken I did ok calling that when a few notables were counselling me on the wisdom of going short..several saw blue sky to 6500 and then stocked up when the index faltered to 5650 alas a false rally and again at 5500 and down it went into 4800. Big miners slaughtered and sliding down to lows previously seen in 2008...yep it's all beer and skittles for the perma bulls. And depending on whether this rally can stick or not, and a lot of dedgy economic data would indicate not , then we'll leg down again at some point.

 

 

 

 

 

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if you can't see the trading plan long or short. why bother reply to me ??

as i said i do think base metal will be back as over supply will be eased by extreme low price, and i still think it is the case

that is why my longer term cash position is in there apart hold chunk QBE.

as for index A50. i always use stops, only you who try to be smart--- trading index without stops and trading plan......

don't like to waste my time .

 

if you have anything to provide here ---go for it.

 

index option expiry tomorrow. should see some round number action. time for intra-day scalping.

 

 

 

 

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i always use stops, only you who try to be smart-

 

 

 

 

No not trying to be smart mate..I've explained why I rarely use stops on index positions but to reiterate, the CFD provider I use tends to harvest the crap out of any stops, that is unless they are placed so far away as to be virtually meaningless to me because if I'm taken out at that point I've lost more than I wanted to lose. If for example I put a long on the Dow tonight and left a stop in say 70 points under it's London to a brick that will get cleared out in the chop overnight and then the index might move up and consolidate higher. It happened to me so many times I stopped using stops most of the time- not always. If I decide to build a position which is beyond what I am comfortable with leaving the computer for half an hour then I will use stops. I've found this method works better for me as I'm not losing chunks of money as often on trades which I get shaken out of by the volatility - particularly the volatility we're seeing now and in between market rollovers which can see major swings based on nothing other than someone putting the cleaners through stops.

 

As for a strategy - I think I do have a strategy most of the time. Right now I've made it clear I don't think this rally will hold and as indexes put on one of the best weeks in recent times last week I took a short on the Dow which I closed this morning. Is that a strategy? Don't understand why you think it is superior to have a notion that commodity supply will eventually give way at lower commodity prices and trade long on that? To me that is putting the cart before the horse until we can see evidence of the supply drying up. Fe- Gina will start shipping 50mt's from Roy Hill on October 20 while steel prices are looking sick again in china- lets see how this plays into your strategy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Don't understand why you think it is superior to have a notion that commodity supply will eventually give way at lower commodity prices and trade long on that? To me that is putting the cart before the horse until we can see evidence of the supply drying up. Fe- Gina will start shipping 50mt's from Roy Hill on October 20 while steel prices are looking sick again in china- lets see how this plays into your strategy.

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very simple reason for low commodities price---over supply! { cheep money to fund more production line plus chinese econimy transtion to slowdown the demond for china}

lower price will kill the high cost producer or production line...that will bring supply demand into more balanced situation.

i thought it is really simple logic. not sure why you it don't click with you?? :unsure:

 

about ore Gina..... i read all about it. CITI called ore price gonna go under usd$40 by next year. i for one think ore price will stay around usd$55 ish this year at least.

so i hold heaps of RIO {just in the money by 70cps at today's price}. if you think ore price gonna collapse from current level you have very good shorting target----FMG

still hold a lot of s32 { still under water everage at 1.75ish} as i think base metal price will up from current level as lower price will kill some production line or small producers.

it's longer term cash holding. and i accept that i bought in way too early. but not gonna give in yet as i see that much money been printed around world---it's gonna jack up these basic lifelyhood thingy. i'm not a gold bugger and don't like invest in property{it's mistake that i made through the years}.

so where am i gonna put my money. bond price gonna go down soon as they start to raise rate.

hope i explained my action to this board.

 

as for long A50------now it traded near 10000 level. i will move up my stops to 9700{ free hit for me}. but suggest you guys can take the profit at 10000 as this index option will expired tomorrow. so the 10000 is the big round number.

 

asx200. i will move up my stops if it go over 5250 tonight.

 

 

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Following the example I used yesterday.

 

Had I taken a long on the Dow last night when it was trading at 17020 in the late afternoon I would have needed to put the stop under 16943 to have that survive the night. As I usually go for something around $10 per point or above that would have lost me up t0 USD800 if triggered and now the Dow is at 17142 . Alternatively I needed to figure out to put a stop under 16940, a level I would have thought unnecessary if my entry was any good and been prepared to have over $800 of leeway in the stop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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asx200 closed at 5270 last night. so i moved my stops to 5200. target is 5400 for this trade and i will move up my stops if index march higher.

 

a50 closed at 10120 last night session. my target is 10450. looks i'm gonna make good money on this trade.

by the way, a50 is listed at SGX and FTSE and it tracks 50 largest stock in china.

 

we are here to share trading idea, info. try to make little money here and there. please try not to waste other people's time.

 

 

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Oh you legend Eb,

 

Like you never posted anything off topic! I only bothered to explain stops thing so you MIGHT stop to think there is more than one way to skin a cat. But no you want to be a smart ass again..very well.

 

Market going your way for now so you make smart ass comments at will, when it reverses no doubt you'll pull your head in.

 

 

 

 

 

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Market going your way for now so you make smart ass comments at will, when it reverses no doubt you'll pull your head in.

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;) you done??

ok, i'm asking you again ----PLEASE, DON'T WORRY ABOUT WHAT I TRADING AND SAYING. JUST IGNORE ME!

it is not a big ask i reckon.

 

if you have any trading idea, infos that you like to share it with many others here, i'm sure everyone will be happy to hear it.

 

i have been wrong many times as i usually put my trading idea up front most of time. i know i'm not that smart, that is why i use stops all the time.

 

back to market.

seems Q4 will be some more up side by the look of it's way going at moment. i use wide stops try not to get shakeout on this ride. but we all know how fast market can turn

so, move the stoploss point to protect capital or profit.

 

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