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Danville

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US markets managed to grind higher and it's rallying despite weak data like the last NFP. It will be interesting to see how well bull's absorb Alcoa's results due after the US close tonight.

 

With aluminium prices sliding away since the last report Alcoa is likely to report some weak numbers. My guess is there could be one more tepid up day and then Alcoa's results will make a dent. Might only be temporary but I reckon early tomorrow morning could be a good time to load up some shorts for a blip down, that is before the release. JMHO

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I have a higher target for the DJI 16960 this swing high.

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hi mista DJI went as high as 16966 last night. did you short it?? nice job if you scalp it. :P

 

shabghai market will open today ..after long week shut down. looks it has a lot of catch up to do.

expecting it will hit through 3200 resistance within two session and target 3500ish in two weeks and target 3800ish for Q4.

 

like i said.......long bias, hop on for the ride for Q4.

 

asx200 gonna hit 4250, and looked up for near term.

 

 

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Hi EB,

Was long, took 3/4 off @ target, holding 1/4 but expect to be stopped.

My guess is sideways or down tonight so if I get a sell signal, I'll go short then. I've been burnt way too often trying to tell the market what to do.

Current volatility swings are approx 660 points so I dont need to nail the entry exactly to still make something out of the swing.

BTW, my data shows slightly different to yours, my high shows 16963.

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Mista,

 

What's your sell signal if I may ask.

 

Dow shorts are in at average of 16900 and I'm looking at a profit on the futures now..I suppose futures might wind back up before the open tonight in which case I'll probably cash out and look to get back in. Not sure yet as it might just open down tonight as the short covering won't be there if the futures are pointing down and nervous bulls will grab any profits they've just made.

 

Have sold most local stocks now. Only holding OSH and short NCM. Dumped the likes of BHP, looking for it to retrace as I can see oil struggling to hold this rally and the outlook for Fe is still dismal imo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Barra, about 95% chance the futures will correct to NOT gap the cash open.

My short entry signal is volume based negative daily bar/candle (sorry, its complicated). I dont expect that tonight, think it will be held up and go sideways, then

 

Either the demand extinguishes the increased supply and we go another leg higher after 1 or 2 more cash sessions or...

 

Supply extinguishes demand and we take a leg lower. (this is the outcome I suspect ) Possibly a weak down swing, approx 70% of the current volatility.

 

I'm still looking for greater up swings than down swings at this stage which makes me more hesitant to take an early short signal.

Reasoning is , of the last 4 swings the first down was the weakest. This is in context to the bigger push down prior, suggesting the fear has subsided and with 80% of the cash market long only traders, it makes for bigger up swings than down.

 

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Iron ore futures in China have climbed nearly 3 per cent with steel mills looking to replenish inventories of the raw material after a week-long National Day break.

However, gains could be short-lived, traders and analysts warned, as a weak steel market forces producers to curb production, cutting demand for iron ore.

"Because everybody's back from holidays, there could be some mills who need to replenish their inventory," said an iron ore trader in Shanghai. "So iron ore prices could see some gains this week and next."

The most-traded iron ore for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 2.6 per cent at 376 yuan ($US59) a tonne. The spot price fell 5.2 per cent to $US53.14 on Friday when it last traded.

Other China-traded commodities such as copper and nickel also spiked along with equities, catching up to a global rally in risk assets.

Shanghai Futures Exchange copper jumped by nearly 4 per cent as shorts were forced to cover their positions, before trimming gains to 3.2 per cent at 39,420 yuan ($US6196) a tonn

 

Here are five reasons why the S&P/ASX 200 Index has rallied nearly 7 per cent since it hit a two-year low on Tuesday last week:

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-liv...l#ixzz3nx2VmXK3

Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

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Thanks Mista,

 

I'd be keen to see how this volume based negative candle looks when it shows up if you could show me.

 

I closed my Dow shorts on the dip to 16800 and went long after it tested stops below and after seeing DAX and FTSE looking ok. As you say the futures are not likely to leave a gap so really this long trade up 80 to 100 points is fairly safe (gulp - should never state that but I did!)

 

 

Edit and there it is ...dipping as soon as I said it was a safe bet!

 

 

 

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Well that long ran beyond my expectations. Thank Mrs Yellen and Co for your dovish minutes.

 

Now shorting again. Alcoa results were suitably disappointing reflecting weak aluminium pricing and headwinds from the stronger USD and weaker Chinese growth. Does anyone care? Used to be a bellweather stock...first down quarter in 7 and the company is splitting itself in two (a bit like BHP) to reinvent itself after the stock fell 25 to 30% over the last year.

 

While it is hard to pick where these Fed inspired 'hot air' rallies fade, I'm pretty confident reality will show itself shortly (tonight perhaps?) and the Dow will retest 1680. I recall on the way up past 16800 a year or two back that level was quite a hurdle.

 

And here are the words which moved the markets last night

 

 

 

 

"Nevertheless, in part because of the risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation, the committee decided that it was prudent to wait for additional information," the Fed said in the minutes.

 

 

 

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Alcoa kicked off the US earnings season after the market close, reporting profit that missed the average of analyst estimates. Alcoa shares slipped 3.2 per cent after ending the regular session 0.6 per cent higher. Corporate profits will provide the next barometer of the economy's health, with analysts projecting that earnings for S&P 500 members dropped 6.9 per cent.

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-liv...l#ixzz3o1Qa6OjR

Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

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on the face of this, our market keeps up and up,

like i said few sessions ago "hop on for the ride" when you see all those bears come out of woods and market turned up----that is sign of rally to come as we see it now! :P

don't get shacked out half way. HOLD ON FOR THE RIDE!!

 

 

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