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I am trying to get a metric for assessing risk reward ratio for oilers. A few on different forums have referred to a 10% well success ratio which sounds a bit like a rule of thumb. So in the interests of science........This is what I have so far.........

 

 

Geoscience Australia web site, Oil & Gas Well Success rates:

 

The success rates shown are based on the number of petroleum discoveries and new-field wildcat wells drilled in Australia onshore and offshore from 1990 to 2002. No assumptions have been made about whether a 'discovery' has proved or will prove to be commercial. Geoscience Australia defines a discovery as a well from which a measurable amount of oil or gas has been recovered and also includes those discoveries inferred from well logs.

 

Success rates, 1990-2002

Year Success Rate

Onshore Offshore Combined

1990 1:2.8 1:4.2 1:3.3

1991 1:2.4 1:8.0 1:3.1

1992 1:3.3 1:4.7 1:3.7

1993 1:2.6 1:3.3 1:2.8

1994 1:1.8 1:3.3 1:2.1

1995 1:2.5 1:3.8 1:2.8

1996 1:2.8 1:2.7 1:2.8

1997 1:1.9 1:4.6 1:2.3

1998 1:2.1 1:4.1 1:2.7

1999 1:2.5 1:3.5 1:3.0

2000 1:3.1 1:2.2 1:2.4

2001 1:1.8 1:3.6 1:2.4

2002 1:1.5 1:3.0 1:2.4

 

Since 1993 (10 years data) success percentages are 31%, 23% and 28%. Offshore is twice the risk of onshore.

 

 

From Industry Tourism resources web site:

 

Australia's Estimated Petroleum Resources

 

Economic Demonstrated Resources(1): Sub-economic Demonstrated Resources(2): % Economic

 

Crude Oil (million Barrels): 1129, 386, 74.5%

 

Condensate (million Barrels): 1735, 673, 72%

 

LPG (million Barrels): 1725, 460, 79%

 

(1) Economic Demonstrated Resources are resources judged to be economically extractable and for which the quality and quantity are computed partly from specific measurements, and partly from extrapolation for a reasonable distance on geological evidence.

 

(2) Sub-economic Demonstrated Resources are similar to Economic Demonstrated Resources in terms of certainty of occurrence and, although considered to be potentially economic in the foreseeable future, these resources are judged to be sub-economic at present.

 

Source: Estimates as at 1 January 2001 published in the Oil and Gas Resources of Australia 2001 (in accordance with the McKelvey classification), by Geoscience Australia, Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, 2002.

 

 

Assuming "success" definition from the first data set is equal to "Economic Demonstrated + Sub-economic" - now that's debateable but would at least include Economic and Sub-economic classification, we get economic success percentages as follows, using an overall economic percetnage of 75%:

 

Onshore 23%, say 1 in 4.5 wells

Offshore 17%, say 1 in 6 wells

Overall 21%, say 1 in 5 wells

 

Offshore is 50% riskier than onshore (I think we suspected similar).

 

From other data, success rates in North Sea (success being defined as hydrocarbon discovery, however defined) vary from 25% to 30%, and NZ Taranaki basin as "1 in 4 up to 1 in 3 recently". Australia's 1:2.57 overall (28%) seems to be consistent.

 

The real question is definition of "Sub-economic resources" as it relates to "well success". Is there a disconnect here? Oilers, industry experts etc. done this already? Help??

 

Krumbs.

 

 

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The analysis you seek may already have been done at Macquarie University. I understand this GEMOC group at Macquarie University in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences has done just such an oil and gas analysis for comparison with mining exploration which needs to catch up on risk management.

 

I've an idea the analysis has shown the success rate for oilers has recently improved to 1 in 2. Could be a part of the reason why oilers have become such successful shares to be in lately. Maybe the big end of town hasn't understood this paradigm shift yet. I vaugely recall it used to be as high as 1 in 10 or 1 in 20.

 

http://www.es.mq.edu.au/GEMOC/annrep2002/Part02.htm

 

QUOTE
Another highlight of 2002 was the beginning of a new venture with the part-time appointment of Adjunct Professor Mike Etheridge to investigate the Management of Risk, Uncertainty and Value in Mineral Exploration.  This has brought important links with Macquarie Graduate School of Management, added a different interface with the exploration industry, and created a new lively group of researchers.  Mike s research has evolved from work that he has been doing with mineral exploration companies over the past 5 years as a Principal of SRK Consulting, one of the world s premier science and engineering consulting firms.  A number of recent studies of the mineral exploration industry have clearly demonstrated that new mine discovery rates have fallen and discovery costs have risen steadily over the past 10 to 15 years, to the extent that investors are questioning the value fundamentals of the industry.  Countries like Australia, whose economic performance depends heavily on its resources industries, need new discoveries to prevent a gradual erosion of its standard of living.  Mike s research focuses on defining the causes of the drop in exploration performance and developing new systems, tools and practices to reverse the decline.

 

There will be a paper "Improving exploration performance" that may cover the stats for petroleum and oil as a comparison to mining at the April gold conference in Perth.

 

http://www.conference.australiangold.org.au/program.asp

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY Blue_Sky_Harvest, Sun 22/02/04 06:30am   [READ POST]

The analysis you seek may already have been done at Macquarie University. I understand this GEMOC group at Macquarie University in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences has done just such an oil and gas analysis for comparison with mining exploration which needs to catch up on risk management.

I've an idea the analysis has shown the success rate for oilers has recently improved to 1 in 2. Could be a part of the reason why oilers have become such successful shares to be in lately. Maybe the big end of town hasn't understood this paradigm shift yet. I vaugely recall it used to be as high as 1 in 10 or 1 in 20.

http://www.es.mq.edu.au/GEMOC/annrep2002/Part02.htm



There will be a paper "Improving exploration performance" that may cover the stats for petroleum and oil as a comparison to mining at the April gold conference in Perth.

http://www.conference.australiangold.org.au/program.asp

Thanks BSH, I'll try to follow them up when I get back to town - I live close to Macquarie. It's inconceivable that this type of analysis has not been done, and I suspect what does exist is proprietary.

 

I screwed up the success calculation - staring at too many numbers for too long! The 10 -year table is success:drilled, not success:failure, so the percentages should read:

 

"Since 1993 (10 years data) success percentages are 44%, 29% and 39%. Offshore is 1.5 times the risk of onshore."

 

Applying the 75% factor:

 

Onshore 33%, say 1 in 3 wells

Offshore 22%, say 1 in 4.5 wells

Overall 30%, say 1 in 3.4 wells

 

Yogi .... I had already been there, but if you're into this stuff (!!) then I think this has more. (http://www.ga.gov.au/oceans/projects/20011023_29.jsp) Having said that though, when I looked into some of the detail I observed some apparent inconsistencies which is why I did not update the 2003 figures. I'll sort this out, eventually .... the reason for interest stems from this paper, which claims a 1:1.2 hit ratio.

 

 

Managing Exploration Risks: Lessons Learned from Surface Geochemical

Surveys and Post-Survey Drilling Results

 

SCHUMACHER, DIETMAR, Geo-Microbial Technologies, Inc., Ochelata, OK,

74051, USA

 

It has been long known and documented that most oil and gas accumulations

leak, that this leakage is predominantly vertical (with some obvious geologic

exceptions), and that this leakage can be detected and mapped using any of a

number of direct and indirect methods. It has also been documented that the areal

extent of the surface geochemical anomaly can approximate the productive limits of

the reservoir(s) at depth. How reliably this can be done depends on the geologic

setting, the choice of method, survey design and sample spacing.

 

Proponents of surface geochemical surveys contend that proper use of surface

geochemistry -- and proper integration of geochemical results with conventional

geologic and seismic data -- leads to better prospect evaluation and risk

assessment. This may be true but the significance of surface geochemical

anomalies in hydrocarbon exploration are not always readily apparent.

 

How can one quantify the value added by surface geochemical data when it is

integrated with conventional exploration methods? One way to do so is to compare

survey results with results of subsequent drilling. The results of such a comparison

are summarized here for more than 1000 U.S. and International wells, all drilled on

conventionally developed prospects after completion of surface geochemical

surveys The prospects are located in both frontier basins and mature basins,

onshore and offshore, and occur in a wide variety of geologic settings. Targets

ranged in depth from 300 meters to more than 4700 meters and covered the full

spectrum of trap styles. Prospects were surveyed using a variety of geochemical

exploration methods including free soil gas, sorbed soil gas, microbial,

radiometrics, micromagnetics, etc.

 

Of all wells drilled, 52% resulted in commercial discoveries. However, of wells

drilled on prospects associated with positive geochemical anomalies 83%

were completed as commercial discoveries. In contrast, only 13% of wells

drilled in negative geochemical anomalies resulted in discoveries. Had

drilling decisions included consideration of the geochemical data, exploration

success rates would have more than doubled!

(Oral presentation, 2002 AAPG Convention, Houston TX, and CSPG in Calgary)

 

Pre-Drilling Geochemical Surveys and Post-Survey Drilling Results

 

Results of post-survey wells drilled on prospects associated with negative and positive geochemical

anomalies. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“DryÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ means dry or non-commercial; ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“DiscoveryÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ means the well resulted in a commercial

discovery.

 

Location: Negative Anomalies: Positive Anomalies

 

Amazon Basin, Brazil: 18/19 wells dry 6/16 wells discoveries

(Petrobras, microbial)

 

USA - CO, KS, NE: 33/33 wells dry 3/6 wells discoveries

(Barringer, microbial)

 

Western Canada: 30/38 wells dry 10/14 wells discoveries

(Can. Hunter, soil gas)

 

USA, Kansas Wildcats: 55/68 wells dry 13/18 wells discoveries

(Phillips, microbial)

 

USA, Williston Basin: 43/54 wells dry 30/39 wells discoveries

(Sun Oil, radiometrics)

 

USA and International: 42/43 wells dry 74/98 wells discoveries

(Santa Fe Min., soil gas)

 

Argentina, San Jorge Bsn.: 0 wells drilled 155/164 wells discoveries

(Vintage Petro., soil gas)

 

USA, Powder River Bsn: 18/31 wells dry 50/60 wells discoveries

(W. Curry, radiometrics)

 

USA ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ CO, WY, ND, IL: 53/58 wells dry 27/31 wells discoveries

(TPA, iodine)

 

Aberta, Canada: 8/11 wells dry 35/37 wells discoveries

(Topaz , micromagnetics)

 

USA, Texas: 7/8 wells dry 28/34 wells discoveries

(GMT, microbial)

 

Northwest Europe: 112/117 wells dry 83/103 wells discoveries

(Several companies, microbial)

 

SUMMARY of ABOVE:

419 of 480 wells dry (87% dry, 13% discoveries)

514 of 620 wells discoveries (17% dry; 83% discoveries)

 

from D. Schumacher, 2002, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Managing Exploration Risks ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Lessons Learned from

Surface Geochemical Surveys and Post-Survey Drilling ResultsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ --- AAPG Oral

Presentation, AAPG Convention, Houston, TX

 

Krumbs

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY chiller, Mon 23/02/04 12:38pm   [READ POST]

Hi,

Is there a glossary website relating to oilers in particular.

Cheers Chiller

Chiller,

 

I find this useful .... there are plenty around though. You can download lots of Oil & Gas industry info from here too.

 

http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/oilandgas/...of_terms_a.html

 

Krumbs

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  • 7 months later...

 

 

QUOTE


Oil futures end above $55 for 1st time
Natural gas jumps 21% for the week to a 19-month record
By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:41 PM ET Oct. 22, 2004 


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed Friday to close above $55 a barrel for the first time in New York as heating-oil prices continued to tap new records in the face of dwindling U.S. supplies.

At the same time, the strength in the petroleum market helped lift natural-gas prices by 21 percent this week to a fresh 19-month high.

"Heating oil is definitely helping crude oil forge higher prices, and as we move into the winter heating season, demand remains strong," said Michael Cavanaugh, an analyst at MyFuturesOnline.com.

And "even though it appears supply numbers were positive for oil, fear of greater demand and the ever-present terror fear continue to drive the market higher," he said.

Crude for December hit an intraday record of $55.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing the previous record of $55.20, reached Oct. 20 during the regular session and the $55.33 peak in overnight trading Oct. 18.

The contract closed at $55.17, up 70 cents for the session, and up $1.20 for the week. Futures prices had never closed above $55 on the exchange.

November heating oil closed at $1.5944 a gallon, up 1.49 cents, after an intraday record of $1.603. November unleaded gasoline rose 2.68 cents to $1.439 a gallon.

"Evidence of consistent stockpile replenishment or global economic contraction would have to be generally acknowledged before prices could change course," Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA said in a note to clients.

The Energy Department reported Wednesday a fifth weekly drop in distillate supplies, which include heating-oil inventories for the winter season, even though crude stocks climbed. See full story.

Right now, distillate "inventories show no signs of rebuilding, therefore the market will continue to trend higher," said Michael Armbruster, an analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading, adding that he sees "no price ceiling."

Cavanaugh believes the next stop for crude prices is $60 a barrel. But as distillates registered another drawdown this week, crude oil continues to build so "in all probability, distillates will show its first of what might possibly be successive builds next week," said Fitzpatrick.

On the global demand side, "signs of economic contraction, particularly as a consequence of higher energy prices, are sprouting," he said. China's economy grew more than 9 percent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, marking the third-consecutive quarter of slower growth.

Natural gas up 21% for the week

Elsewhere on Nymex, natural-gas futures marked a five-day gain, climbing 21 percent for the week to end at a fresh 19-month high on the back of strength in oil prices as well as forecasts for a cold winter.

November natural gas closed up 40.8 cents, or 5.3 percent, at $8.105 per million British thermal units after an $8.23 high. Futures prices haven't closed at a level this high since March 2003. A week-ago, natural gas closed at $6.709.

High oil prices and forecasts of a normal or colder-than-normal winter provide support for high prices, said Ron Denhardt, a vice president at Strategic Energy & Economic Research.

But natural-gas supplies have been running above the five-year average, even with around 1.5 million barrels a day of output still shut in the Gulf of Mexico, he said.

That could mean that the supply-demand balance could be 2 billion cubic feet a day looser than the five-year average, so if the market sees mild or even normal weather for the next few weeks, "the downward pressure on prices will increase," he said.

In equities, energy shares were higher, with the Amex Oil Index ($XOI: news, chart, profile) leading the climb among the sector indexes. See Energy Stocks.

In Nymex metals trading, gold futures logged a gain of nearly $6 an ounce for the week. Prices are holding at their highest in six months. See Metals Stocks.

The Reuters/CRB index, a broad measure of commodity futures markets, was down 0.1 percent at 286.55 points.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.


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  • 1 month later...

Hi All,

 

Some Interesting comments by Christian DeHaemer on Oil prices - US$100 a barrel?

 

Cheers,

Brantley

 

QUOTE


Interesting comments by Christian DeHaemer on Oil prices - US$100 a barrel?

From the Desk of Martin Denholm at Bull MarketÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Dynamic Market Report:

December 2-3, 2004

Dear Friend,

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“Get used to itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦oil is on a crash course for US$100 a barrel and we will
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ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“I became a subscriber less than two weeks ago and made a 35% return in
less than 10 days. I'm a believer.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚    -A.M.

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A large portion of the world's oil comes from three countries with a deep
history of chaos: Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

The other top oil producers are equally volatile. The Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia gave birth to Osama bin Laden and 15 of the 19 Sept. 11 hijackers.

President and former KGB chief Vladimir Putin is currently nationalizing
the private oil companies of Russia. Gasprom, which is majority-owned by
the Russian government, will likely take over Yukos (estimated worth
between US$17 billion and US$30 billion) for the deeply discounted price
of US$8.6 billion. Let me remind you that the State of Russia drove Yukos
into bankruptcy for failure to pay back taxes. The benefits of state run
companies are few.

Consumption Climbs

Meanwhile, China has increased its oil consumption by 2.5 million barrels
per day over the past decade. When China reaches the point where the
country's per capita energy consumption rivals that of the United States,
China will need 80 million barrels of oil per day ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ incredibly, more than
the rest of the world combined.

Today's annual global consumption of oil is about 30 billion barrels.

Worldwide oil production is expected to peak somewhere between 120 million
and 130 million barrels per day. Forget about cutting back ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ even getting
rid of all SUVÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s would only reduce the U.S. demand for fuel by 0.6%.

But thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s just background. The real problem isÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦

The ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“Tet offensiveÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ on global oil production is scheduled for the Iraqi
elections of January 30, 2005. Attacks against the Iraqi oil system have
gone up dramatically from just two in February 2004 to 17 in July of 2004.

These attacks have been hugely successful, as Iraq's oil exports have
totaled less than 1/3 of those projected by the coalition planners.

As a result, oil production in Iraq is still well below pre-war levels and
declining. This pattern of attack suggests that the terrorists have gone
from suicide car bombs to a global economic strategy. These Islamic
fascists can disrupt oil output at will and are attempting to gain pricing
power over oil like an underground OPEC.

I can almost guarantee that this scenario will be priced into the oil
markets before January 30, 2005 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ the date of the Iraqi elections.

Whether or not it comes to fruition is beside the point. The price of oil
is going higher and many a portfolio will likely suffer as a result.

But my Red Zone VIP investment service has found a small, little-known
company that will reap huge rewards as the price of oil doubles from here.

And the best news is that you can read all about it here in this FREE
REPORT. The 18-year embargo has been lifted!

Click here to learn more:

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/TRV/WTRVEB15/

Best regards,

Christian DeHaemer

Editor, Red Zone investment group

Contributing Editor, Bull MarketÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Dynamic Market Report

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