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Hi veeone,

 

Thanks for that,

 

I have the feeling that we have NOT seen the end of this deal as yet.

 

Interesting times ahead and at least we have now a figure where to start from....

 

 

IVA wants EXS probably more then most appreciate...

 

 

jojo

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I don't think there will be a counterbid. Although it is possible that IVA will make a move.

 

IVA appear to have been involved in negotiations until late in the piece and it seems clear that the involvement of IVA was not particularly in shareholder interests vs the deal on the table.

 

This implies to me that IVA wanted to take a substantial percentage 'direct' interest in the remaining tenements which is anyones guess how high a percentage they were expecting. My interpretation is that they were effectively asking for control of a number of deposits in return for the rubberstamp on the sale of CCP.

 

Again, at a guess, they were unwilling to pay a premium for control hence this current deal has been offered to shareholders. The ball is in IVA's court and they have all the information they could possibly need to make a bid. Any bidder knows they partially fund the offer to the tune of $175m if they wish.

 

We will see whether IVA want to take the whole lot now. I believe they are more likely stay on the register and move on the reduced group when/if there is further drill success.

 

There will almost certainly be a 28c ff div announced when/if the sale goes through formally.

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Nice work Wolverine.

Quarterly out now.

White dam continues to perform.24+ million net cash flow for the quarter.

Almost 36 million in cash at present. 175 million to come

100 million coming back to holders with a likely and very handy 28c ff divvie

Leaves a fat bank balance even after the dividend.

Plenty of prospects to prove up, so nowhere near an empty cupboard post CCP disposal.

Current market cap of about 232 million.

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Mr Anderson is doing his best to talk it up with another BRR release.

Holders however continuing to exit with the cap gains rather than the uncertainty and longer time frame of the divvie.

Obviously the question is, will it react better with holders agreeing to the CCP sale and at what level it will drop to by the time the sale is pushed through and then when ex dividend?

At the current rate it is going to be sfa.

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Hi B

 

At some point when they announce the form of the capital return (assuming IVA don't sneak a bid in) the buyers should step back up.

 

I have reworked some numbers and don't anticipate that the div will be 28c ff. I think the tax they will pay will only allow them to frank it to about 80% of the mooted 100m.

 

So it will be a fully franked div and possibly a small capital return??

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From Shaws morning notes:

 

Break-up of the 53c is as follows:

 

Current Cash $35m

 

CCP Payment $175m

 

Potential CGT $25-35m

 

Cash from White Dam over next 12mths $45m

 

NPV of Great Australia royalty payments $25m

 

Other copper/gold assets left behind from Xstrata deal $10-15m

 

Hazel Creek $10m

 

Other exploration JV $10m

 

Total $285 - 295m or 82.5 - 85c

 

Less Cash payback to s/holders $100m or 29cps

 

Net total $185 - 195m or 53 to 56cps

 

Current share price of 64.5c is tending not to reflect other potentially excellent assets of EXS and management's proven ability to generate value from these assets longer term.

 

"In summary:

 

We had a much higher valuation for the CCP asset, even adjusting for the fact that Xstrata only bought 75% of the total resource. We suggest that this is a function of there being no other buyer for the asset and an unwillingness of the EXS board to perhaps look to develop the project on a stand-alone basis. BUT the board of EXS have delivered 150% return to shareholders over a 10 month period. Clearly management has the skills to identify excellent project areas into tangible assets for shareholders. Assuming the company pays out the $100m or 29cps, on an adjusted basis this would see the share price fall to 35.5c, clearly cheap compared to our forecast asset valuation post distribution of between 53c and 56c (50% upside).

 

We have lowered our BUY recommendation to an Accumulate in-lieu of a few months of negotiations ahead of the company and an EGM at the start of June."

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