Cobalt (The next Uranium)

[woteva]

Does anybody know of any ASX listed companies with major Cobalt deposits?

 

Cobalt is currently selling for around $30 per lb having doubled in recent times and this is just the begining.

 

Cobalt a metal that many have never heard of and when mentioned to people is greeted with looks of bewilderment. Cobalt in my opinion, has the most bullish medium term picture of all commodities at present. I believe that Cobalt will see $100 + in 2008 and will go even higher in 2009-2011.

 

It has a miriad of industrial uses with the most prominant being its use in HEV's(hybrid electric vehicles), new technology mobile phone batteries and high temperature alloys used in the latest jet aircraft. Of which China has orders for over 2000.

 

At present a HEV uses about 7-8lbs of cobalt and by 2010 there are expected to be 35 HEV models on the market and sales worldwide are BOOMING.

 

At present annual demand for Cobalt is growing at 5000-6000t pa and there currently exists a annual shortfall of 4500-5000t. With no new mine supply expected to come on line in the next 12 months, by mid 2008 the annual shortfall will be 10000t + and upward pressure will be immense.

 

Cobalt is set to go ballistic. It is where Uranium was in 2002.

 

And you heard it here first on SS http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[King Baz]

look at HAV

[woteva]

In reply to: King Baz on Thursday 19/04/07 04:33pm

Might have known you'd come good Baz http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

How ya been?

[King Baz]

In reply to: woteva on Thursday 19/04/07 03:35pm

woteva - goooood http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif

 

HAV have a respectable Cu/Co deposit . . .

[kosmos]

In reply to: woteva on Thursday 19/04/07 03:35pm

Apart from ZINC, lead, gold and copper, I understand that Westgold Resources might also expect to see some Cobalt from their Tennant Creek project.

[moosey]

For a junior you could also try this one-:

Metals X Limited - Investor InformationMetals X Limited is traded on the Australian Stock Exchange. Ordinary fully paid shares in Metals X are traded under the code MLX and options expiring 31 ...

metalsx.com.au/investors/ - 6k - Cached - Similar pages

 

MLX METALS X LIMITED

April 2007

18th Becoming a substantial holder

12th Wingellina - Scoping Study Results

2nd Appendix 3B

March 2007

29th Collingwood Tin Project

21st Change in substantial holding

20th Appendix 3B Placement to Jinchuan Group Limited

20th Wingellina Attracts Chinas Largest Nickel Producer

20th Change in substantial holding

16th Wingellina - World Class Nickel Deposit

14th Half Year Accounts

January 2007

 

 

[woteva]

QUOTE (kosmos @ Thursday 19/04/07 04:56pm)

Thanx kosmos, but I'm thinking more of pure Co play.I do hold a TSX listed company called Caledonia Mining that has a large Co deposit in Zambia that they are currently bringing to market, however it is all but impossible to find an Aussie producer, but that is what makes the whole Co picture so bullish. It is produced as a by-product by many Cu/Ni producers but very few principle producers.

 

Demand is increasing dramatically and supply is, (if anything) at present declining as the US and Russian defense has all but run out of stockpiles and will very shortly dry up completely.

 

The current annual shortfall could will increase drmatically in the next 12months 10K t by mid 2008 is conservative.

 

End users will pay the prices too because overall a quadrupling of the current price will not effect their bottom lines very much. For instance a HEV,at current prices contains around $250 Co. Considering that consumers are prepared to wait months for delivery of a HEV at present and ever rising oil prices I can't envisage of a drop-off in sales. In fact quite the contrary. Sales of HEV's are increasing dramatically.

 

Combine the above with moblie phone sales in China and India and the Co story couldn't be better.

 

The problem is finding a vehicle to exposure.

[will_smith]

In reply to: woteva on Thursday 19/04/07 04:12pm

Commonly refered to as the I-Pod metal

 

yeah I too like the long term growth prospects

 

for mkt cap v resource my mulla is on VCN

[kahuna1]

Hmmm ...

 

Yes market is tight ... ....... lots looking and I believe 50 or so listed on the asx with JORC deposits. Don't doubt the price goes up this year .... or out to 2011-12

 

One in fact has a JORC deposit with 150,000 tons of cobalt along with 2 million tons of Nickel.

 

As for new mines and none opening .... I disagree totally .... if a new Nickel mine is opening its usually an associated metal ... cobalt.

 

Sometimes also found with Copper and deposits in PNG in particular seem to be found with CO.

 

Just some of the companies with Cobalt interests ...... there are over 200 globally.

 

 

All companies with cobalt properties

BAJA MINING CORP.

CHINA NONFERROUS METALS INT'L MINING CO. LTD. (CNMIM)

COLUMBIA YUKON EXPLORATIONS INC.

ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION

EQUINOX MINERALS LIMITED

ESO URANIUM CORP.

FIRST NICKEL INC.

FNX MINING COMPANY INC.

FORTUNE MINERALS LIMITED

NAMEX EXPLORATIONS INC.

NEWMONT MINING CORP

SCANDINAVIAN MINERALS LIMITED

SOLEX RESOURCES CORP.

ABITEX RESOURCES INC.

ACCLAIM EXPLORATION NL

ADITYA BIRLA MINERALS LIMITED

ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL

AFRICO RESOURCES LTD.

ALBERTA STAR DEVELOPMENT CORP.

ALBIDON LIMITED

ALTAI RESOURCES INC.

ALTIUS MINERALS CORPORATION

AMADOR GOLD CORP.

ANGLO AMERICAN PLC

ANOORAQ RESOURCES CORPORATION

 

And it goes on and on ....

 

As for demand side ... well your number on cobalt global demand GROWTH is about what I think same sort of thing as Nickel ....

 

Supply ..... your thoughts are wrong ..... I know this because the Ravensthore Nickel mine opens next year and is in current ramp up ..... and its production will be

 

QUOTE

The project involves open pit mining from three adjacent ore-bodies, and a hydrometallurgical process plant to treat both limonite and saprolite ores to produce up to 50,000 tonnes p.a. of contained nickel and 1400 tonnes of contained cobalt in MHP

 

When in full tilt .... without looking at some of the other I know produce Cobalt as well as Nickel ....

 

There are a lot and I mean a lot of others .... Cobalt producers coming on line .... dont get me wrong I agree demand growth is also moving with it. Main uses are the old batteries and super alloys which account for around 50% of its use.

 

HIG's Ramu mine .... another one

 

QUOTE

The feasibility study envisaged production of 32,800tpa Ni and 3,200tpa Co as cobalt salt, over a 20-year mine life.

 

And a swag of others...... and i mean 50 or more out to 2010.

 

Do not disagree however the price remains well bid .... very much like Nickel the outlook the same ... but there is quite a large chunk of supply coming on line in coming years for cobalt ... as well as Nickel but demand is driving things. Supply is chasing the demand growth and unlikely to catch it till 2010 or 2011.

 

Not all of the following are Cobalt .... they are Nickel mines new ones and expansions so u will have to look to see if the Nickel is associated with Cobalt but Ravensthorpe is .....

Ramu didn't make it onto this list for some reason .... but it does ... 2009 start ...

Berong is ... 1.3% NI and 0.74% CO ....

Caldag .... is same grade 1.30% nickel and 0.07% cobalt

 

 

You can check the rest if u want.

 

Then we have copper mines new producers with associated Cobalt and there are lots of them coming into production 2007-12 but tiny Cobalt from each of them.

 

Like Nickel also ... and Cobalt but not too much higher I think. Market is valuing Nickel and cobalt via association with a long term price of about 33% of the current spot.

 

Think this is wrong ... demand is going nuts and Nickel is struggling to keep up with demand growth ... so too cobalt alongside.

 

Basically I don't think you will find a cobalt mine as such ....

the ratios are about 30% from Ni Co deposits mainly Laterite ones and rising with developments ... then 35% from Cu Co deposits which are suplhide deposits

Then the rarer Ni Cu Co Suplhide deposits about 18 % and the balance being made up from secondary sources.

 

Pretty sure I read out to 2010 ... the cobalt market gets around 20,000 more tons of production out to 2010 from the CU CO and Ni Co alone .

 

Spent the weekend looking at both so pretty sure of the outlook and numbers. Xstrata and BHP and quite a few others all the same sort of tune. The 7 listed below, Ni Co laterite ones make up the lions share of new CO supply I think ... 15 k tons or so between them.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

 

Berong ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Toledo Mining +10,000tpy 2006 Q4 Ore Production

Caldag ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ European Nickel +21,000tpy 2007 Heap Leach

Ferronikeli ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Int. Mining/Alferon +10,000tpy 2008/09 Smelting to FeNi

Goro - Inco +60,000tpy 2008 HPAL

Onca-Puma - CVRD +57,000tpy 2008 Smelting to FeNi

Ravensthorpe ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ BHP Billiton +45,000tpy 2008 HPAL

Vermelho - CVRD +46,000tpy 2009 HPAL

Total +249,000tpy

 

 

Brownfield Expansions, Committed:

Moa Bay / Sherritt +16,000tpy 2007 HPAL

PT Inco +19,000tpy 2009 Smelting to Matte

Rio Tuba II +10,000tpy 2009 HPAL

Total +45,000tpy

Grand Total +294,000tpy

 

The above are Nickel laterite expansions and Most have associated Cobalt ....

 

Below are the Nickel Suplhide expansions planned and less will have associated Cobalt .....

Suplhide deposits individually obviously smaller and easier to produce ..... less capex up front. Obviously the only ones which will have Co are the ones also with Cu as a by product about 33% of them without checking would be a fair call.

 

 

Greenfield Projects, committed: Capacity Timing Product

Avebury ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Allegiance +8,000tpy 2007 Concentrate

Bostwana Activox ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ LionOre +23,000tpy 2009/10 Metal

Enterprise ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Albidon +8,000tpy 2008 Concentrate

Flying Fox ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“Western Areas +12,000tpy 2006/07 Concentrate

Nickel Rim South ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Xstrata Nickel +12,000tpy 2009 Concentrate

Total +63,000tpy

 

Brownfield Expansions, committed:

Black Swan - LionOre +5,000tpy 2006 Q4 Concentrate

East Alpha ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Consolidated Minerals +5,000tpy 2007 Concentrate

Jilin ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Jilin Huarong +15,000tpy 2008/09 Matte

Jinchang ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Jinchuan +15,000tpy 2007/08 Metal

Maggie Hays ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ LionOre +6,000tpy 2007 Concentrate

Miitel South ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Mincor Resources +2,000tpy 2007 Concentrate

Nkomati I ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ ARM/LionOre +5,000tpy 2007 Concentrate

Phoenix ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Tati Nickel +2,000tpy 2006 Q4 Concentrate

Prospero ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Jubilee Mines +8,000tpy 2008 Concentrate

Raglan ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Xstrata Nickel +5,000tpy 2008 Concentrate

Taimyr & Kola ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Norilsk Nickel +15,000tpy 2010/11 Metal

Total +83,000tpy

Grand Total +146,000tpy

 

 

As for the Cu Co producers ... dont have a list but its longer than both the above but the actual amount of Co pruduced by them each is tiny.

 

Biggest supply source will be the Nickel laterite and Lamomite projects coming on line or expanding. Basically there will need to be one new Ravensthorpe sized Nickel mine announced each year just to keep up with demand growth. There ar equite a few likely deposits which surely will be coming on line post 2012.

[woteva]

QUOTE (kahuna1 @ Thursday 19/04/07 06:15pm)

kahuna as I said Co as by product of Cu Ni will add some supply to market but taking into account the increase in demand and drop-off of stockpiles then Co will remain in shortfall until 2010.

I still expect we will see a rapid increase in price due to a sudden spike in that shortfall into 2008 as the market digests the fundamentals. After 2009 the shortfall will begin to decline as new supply comes to market...but the price will still be over $100 by 2011 as by 2011 global demand has been estimated at a min. 120 000 t pa, double current levels.