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Here is a contrary view for you, Telcos in particualr one like Telstra will become cashflow giants over the coming years.

 

Already we are seeing Mobile players experiment in other countries with the use of a mobile phone as a payment card, this trend will continue to grow and Telstra with it;s abundance of mobile customers will be well situated to process a lot of these payments, drinks from vending machines, rail tickets, bus tickets, movie tickets, newspapers, all sorts of small purchases and a whole lot of cash flowing through their already ample billing systems.

 

I have Telstra as a great 3 - 5 year investment and view either the endowment or long dated installments as a good play.

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Moneyman, I agree that the market for telco services are going to contiue to grow in the medium term. Paying via mobile being but one of the new services on offer. I don't expect TLS cash flow to crash overnight, rather I suspect a long decline or at best flattening off of revenue is likely to occur.

 

I reckon smaller more nimbler players are going to take slice after slice off TLS market share. The cost setting up alternative networks will continue to decline. For example the rollout of WiFi services in Australia is virtually non-existant at the moment, compared to say Europe or parts of Asia (Korea in particular).

 

Once WiFi is out there, it will be possible for smaller players to selectively target markets or locations and steal the cream of TLS business.

 

 

 

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I agree it is likely to affect regional areas in the near future as they are already screaming about the dodgy infrastructure they are left with. Even ADSL is beyond reach close to several large towns and the demand for internet access for students alone is becoming huge. Can't see cable providing a solution for this market, only WiFi and TLS seems uninterested.

 

jarm

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Another item in support of moneyman:

 

 

 

http://hiddenwires.co.uk/resourcesnews2004...0040723-01.html

 

Potential users of networked devices will pay particular attention to the usability factor, demanding "safety and comfort at low prices ". A smoke detector - available at 5 euros in a DIY store - and connected by wireless bluetooth or ZigBee link to the internet, will report to the PC in the home which in turn will inform security services. Similarly, sensors will be able to detect glass breakage and burglary. Smart IP components such as these will be the ones to kickstart the home automation revolution, since they are cheap and simple, and their benefits are obvious for all to see.

 

Home automation will also open up a world of opportunities for service providers. Home service providers will act as a hub for regional services or services assisting the home and will be the focal point of frequently complex processes. Providers in these cases would include security services, hospitals, energy suppliers, telecommunications networks or media companies.

 

Additional business via blue tooth should occur rapidly to offset losses in STD and ISD.

 

jarm

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Hey Jarm,

 

interesting point regarding the regional centers and the lack of service that they're being provided with.

 

Co-incidently there was an article in the AFR last week about some of the regional players who are looking at trying to build a base in these areas, including Neighbourhood Cable.

 

They're languishing around the 1c mark at the moment, and seem to have some problems in marketing themselves.

 

 

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Disco, I would love to see small players like SKG get their act together and address these areas of desperate need as well as the high-rise urban applications.Just a couple of local applications would do wonders for this peripheral technology area.

 

jarm

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The more I read about mobile technology developments the more the apparaent upside for TLS. The incredibly cheap purchase into the 3G network means Hutchison must be about to be subsumed or die. They must prefer the former option.

 

Swiping your mobile at train stations and the like rather than directly buy a ticket is on the cards near-term as is the ability to use your mobile as a cash card. I assume ISD/STD income will be entirely replaced with a new cash cow. I'll keep the shares after all!

 

jarm

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THE KING says Jumped out of TLS at $4.75 some time back [Loss] and is reluctant to ever jump back its now G3 time next week G4,5,6 this will never stop the changes since 1996 makes the head swell the money lost and now a 80% div payout at last, but the real worry still and seems not much public talk is for the GOV to jump boy more BLOOD,, http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/king.gif
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