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Shares March 2004

RDF Redflex Holding

 

RDF services the aviation and defence sectors, with the former being affected by depressed conditions in the commercial airline industry in financial year 2003 due to SARS, terrorism and the war in Iraq. In the last six months, RDF has won four contracts, one with the US Department of Defence for the provision of its patented Switchplus Communication Systems. Revenue from this division is unpredictable, and RDFÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s main reliance in terms of establishing some much needed stability and reliability of earnings lies in its Traffic Systems division.

RDF is a provider of end to end traffic camera systems and services. It designs, manufactures and install high resolution digital cameras and handles the notice issuance and court service procedures. This is a niche area with high barriers to entry and RDF recently acquired AustraliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s only other listed competitor, Poltech International (ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s nice isnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ). Management believes that the transfer of contracts will result in a doubling of its installed systems in Australia and thee n contracts in the US, one of RDFÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s key markets. In Dec/Jan RDFÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s traffic division was awarded five contracts in 14 cities, totalling more than $80 million.

The challenge for RDF has been turning Revenue into earnings however, it appears to have turned the corner and positioned itself as a dominant player in its core market. Management is predicting a substantial profit at levels in excess of those previously experienced.

 

GG

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  • 2 weeks later...

Redflex Holdings on the move

5-10% in three days

Well will see anyway, the graph enclosed shows some pretty consistant climbs with relative even highs and lows.

This company should boom (for the want of a better word) over the next couple of years.

Long term holders, buy now,

Short term holders buy now and sell at $1.65 to $1.70.

Cheers

GG

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  • 3 weeks later...

Article from press . trying to promote a side of the company that usually gets the bagging at AGM. Does this mean they have a media strategy. If anyone is going today can they please give us a report of what is said. Thanks

 

 

Redflex springs back on defence contracts

By Ian Porter

March 18, 2004

 

 

 

Redflex Holdings share price surged yesterday after the company reported three more contract wins in the local and overseas defence markets for its communications technology.

 

Investors halted a seven-day slide in the share price yesterday, adding 5ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ to the price to leave it at $1.48.

 

The latest contracts, worth about $1 million, build on the success achieved earlier in the financial year when Redflex won contracts to supply the US Department of Defence directly.

 

"It is only in this financial year we have made direct sales to the US Department of Defence; two to the Army and one to the Navy," said Redflex managing director Graham Davie.

 

He said those systems would soon be in place and would be able to be used as reference sites in the US.

 

"That is a key part of being able to present yourself as a credible supplier in the US defence market," he said.

 

"It is a significant breakthrough that Redflex has made direct sales to the US Department of Defence."

 

Redflex has already installed its Switchplus communications systems on Australia's Anzac frigates, the Collins Class submarines and on the Landing Platform Amphibious ships and the helicopters they carry.

 

 

Redflex will hold a shareholder briefing at the ASX Theatrette today at noon at which directors will give an update on operations.

 

 

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They employed a media person some time back when the SP was quite low. From what I could see, he didn't have much effect of the price.

 

It's interesting to see the Comms article in the paper, though, as that division is very political at the moment (with directors debating whether to get rid of it). I'll bet Mr. Davie was very pleased to see the article. He might have even been involved in getting it to the paper.

 

More Traffic announcements today. This company has not only enormous upside, but it's not just potentiial. They've turned the corner into profitability and positive cashflow and it should all be good news from hereon in. There are thousands and thousands of municipalities in the US, and they will (almost without doubt) all install traffic cameras. The only question is whether they choose RDF (with proven performance) or a more risky option such as Transol or one of the others. It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

 

Unfortunately, I can't go today, but I'd also be interested in hearing what was said. With some luck, the institutions will take note, especially as RDF is now in the ASX300.

 

Actually, this company seems similar to ERG in that they're both in new technology etc. The difference is that RDF is further ahead on the "curve". An RDF employee told me the other day (so it must be true http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/rolleyes.gif ) that with the huge number of intersections, RDF should one day be bigger than the likes of NAB etc. Who knows? If it keeps going at this rate, it may happen. There are relatively few obstacles in their way.

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More bullish media from the Age. Are these guys journalists or just parrots?

If anyone went to the meeting I would like to here how many attended and any "after talk"

Thanks

 

Jess

 

Redflex counts down to red-light blast-off

By Ian Porter

March 19, 2004

 

 

Redflex Holdings expected the number of installations of its red-light camera systems in the US to rocket from 244 now to around 1000 in as little as three years, shareholders were told yesterday.

 

Directors showed Redflex had not lost any momentum when they also revealed the company had won another two contracts in the US, further enlarging its order backlog.

 

Investors warmed to the bullish news from yesterday's shareholder briefing, pushing the shares up a further 8ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ to $1.56, close to February's three-year high of $1.59.

 

Redflex now held a dominant position in digital traffic cameras in the US and demand was expected to grow rapidly as more states passed legislation allowing photo enforcement, traffic systems chief Bruce Higgins said.

 

Including the wet film operations it acquired in a 1999 takeover, Redflex holds a 45 per cent share of the US photo-enforcement market.

 

Mr Higgins said only 15 US states currently permitted local municipalities to use photo enforcement, and eight more were considering legislation.

 

"Two of those eight are Texas and Florida; big states. Look at what Redflex has achieved in California and consider what is possible in Texas and Florida; we've just seen the first wave."

 

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QUOTE (CarBroker @ Tue 16/03/04 07:01pm)
IN REPLY TO A POST BY CarBroker, Tue 16/03/04 07:01pm

HereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a different chart to have a look at CarBroker.

The significance is the volume and $rise, (volume) there has never been this much interest in this stock until now, ($rise) the fact that itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s climbing at such a steep rate shows that thereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s money to be made.

If you look at the graph, what is interesting is the previous climb, Tuesday 15th Dec, opened at $0.549 till Wed 16th 2000, high $4.24.

WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll see how high she goes this time, but once thing is for sure, youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re in at the right time now.

$1.60 is cheap if all the info relating to potential profit is true, and by George donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t we love a company that makes money instead of just talking about it. I recon it wonÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t be long to we see her at $3.00. My graphs show could be early as Aug 11th 04, latest Sept 20th 04.

DonÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t take this too literally, as graphs change daily, but letÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s hope.

 

Jessica, keep up the news articles, now I know were starting to get some interest IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll read this board daily.

 

CarBroker, if you wont a more accurate graph, let me know and IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll sit down for 10 minutes and nut you one out.

 

GG

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