Jump to content

EXT


ShareCafe

Recommended Posts

Harlee, if that next venture is the one I'm thinking of, I'm very envious LOL.

 

Koslowski, we stopped hearing from Marben sometime around when the shareprice peaked if my memory serves me correctly. I'd say he took his money and ran - the suggestion that he was working for KAH may well have been correct, but we will probably never know.

 

Cheers

 

KC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 8.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Hi,

 

No his last post is posted below (he posted it on Jul 8 2011, 11:32 AM) and he was "last seen" according to ShareScene on 16th October 2011 - 12:33 AM

 

in July the share price was around $8. His last post indicates nothing about leaving the forum... Anyway, I've IM'ed him. Perhaps he'll return to share his thoughts if he's so inclined. I really appreciated his input and insight.

 

marben100 http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/folder_profile_portal/gender_mystery.pngView Member Profile http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/folder_profile_portal/send_pm_small.pngSend Message http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/folder_profile_portal/find_posts.pngFind Member's Posts ipsmenu.register( "post-member-760624", '', 'popmenubutton-new', 'popmenubutton-new-out' ); Posted on: Jul 8 2011, 11:32 AM

 

Group: Member

Posts: 812

http://www.sharescene.com/style_images/ip.boardpr/spacer.gif Abner - thanks for posting that article but LOL. Katali shooting his mouth off again and displaying his ignorance: he clearly doesn't understand the difference between PROSPECTS and RESERVES (either that or, less charitably, he's trying to mislead his audience). The chance of all those prospects turning into reserves (which would take probably 10 years of explo and then appraisal drilling) is pretty much zero. If even 10% turn into commercial reserves, the country will be very lucky.

 

For anyone that's interested, here is Tower's statement on their CPR: http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?...06300700244111J

 

These estimates are based purely on seismic and indirect indicators. Nothing has been drilled yet, so nothing has been proven. It is misleading to claim: "...Delta Prospect contained recoverable resources of up to two billion barrels of oil", as Katali is quoted as saying. Note the "up to" - that doesn't exclude zero! ;) This is directly analogous to making a claim that the Husab project has RESERVES of 1bn lb U before a single hole has been drilled. Under ASX rules such a claim would be illegal. The CPR indicates two main prospects, one with a 40% COS (chance of success) and the other just 24%. Even if successful the chance of oil (rather than gas or gas/condensate) is only 50% - so only a 20% and a 12% chance of each of those prospects containing the suggested quantity of oil.

 

Best,

 

Mark

 

In Topic: EXT Abner - thanks for posting that article but LOL. Katali shooting his mouth off again and displaying his ignorance: he clearly doesn't understand the difference between PROSPECTS and RESERVES (either that or, less charitably, he's trying to mislead his audience). The chance of all those prospects turning into reserves (which would take probably 10 years of explo and then appraisal drilling) is pretty much zero. If even 10% turn into commercial reserves, the country will be very lucky.

 

For anyone that's interested, here is Tower's statement on their CPR: http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?...06300700244111J

 

These estimates are based purely on seismic and indirect indicators. Nothing has been drilled yet, so nothing has been proven. It is misleading to claim: "...Delta Prospect contained recoverable resources of up to two billion barrels of oil", as Katali is quoted as saying. Note the "up to" - that doesn't exclude zero! ;) This is directly analogous to making a claim that the Husab project has RESERVES of 1bn lb U before a single hole has been drilled. Under ASX rules such a claim would be illegal. The CPR indicates two main prospects, one with a 40% COS (chance of success) and the other just 24%. Even if successful the chance of oil (rather than gas or gas/condensate) is only 50% - so only a 20% and a 12% chance of each of those prospects containing the suggested quantity of oil.

 

Best,

 

Mark

 

Cheers,

Kos

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Privatisation of Russian state nuclear giant 02 February 2012

 

Having spent five years combining its nuclear power, engineering and research enterprises into the single entity of Rosatom, the Russian government now sees privatisation of the firm as part of a plan for industrial modernisation.

 

Rosatom is just one of several vertically integrated state holding companies Russia established to "discourage the decline of the more intellectual sectors of national industry" in the post-Soviet era, wrote Vladimir Putin in the Vedomosti newspaper on 30 January.

 

Currently in the role of prime minister, Putin served the maximum two terms as president from 2000 to 2008 and is now campaigning to return to that position in March 2012. He used the lengthy article to set out a range of government targets for Russia to develop its infrastructure, innovation and private enterprise while curbing corruption and improving the legal and investment environment for business.

 

Speaking of sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding and nuclear energy, Putin wrote: "We had to consolidate those assets which were officially government-owned but managed disjointedly, and which had lost all links with their respective research and design centres."

 

Government efforts "were focused on restoring Russia's ability to compete in those sectors which involved only a few players on the global market," Putin wrote, emphasising that the "expansion of state capitalism" only occured because there was no private initiative in those sectors. He stressed the scale of state action had no bearing on "our work to accumulate and restructure assets and get them ready for sale."

 

Accordingly, Russia has "compiled a plan for the reorganisation of each [state holding] company and their subsequent entry into the market."

 

"Russia's new economy will be a diversified economy where many competitive sectors will be developed alongside a modern fuel and energy industry."

 

Certain divisions of Rosatom manage Russia's military nuclear program and these will remain under full control of the state. However, its civil nuclear assets - for example nuclear fuel, reactor technology, supply chain, power plant operation, services and waste management - are to become a "public liability company" with its shares "subsequently sold off."

 

Rosatom director general Sergei Kiriyenko told the Regnum news agency: "The civil part of nuclear industry has already been developing with partnerships in mind. He added that he interpreted Putin's task as an "encouragement to continue developing partnerships in nuclear industry on prospective projects with not only state investments but also with the increasing share of private investment to be considered."

 

Rosatom had a preliminary agreement with Siemens to partner in nuclear energy in 2009, but this faltered and in 2011 it signed with Rolls-Royce to consider possibilities "for mutually beneficial cooperation in a comprehensive series of activities in Russia, the UK and third countries." And while Rosatom has a domestic supply chain, its subsidiary Atomenergomash nevertheless forged a joint venture with Alstom for nuclear power plant steam turbines. Today, this enterprise announced an ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬880 million ($1.1 billion) contract to supply turbines to the Baltic nuclear power plant in Kaliningrad. This new build project is itself the first for which Rosatom has held talks with potential private equity holders for a stake of up to 49%, entertaining CEZ, EDF, Enel and Iberdrola.

 

Putin said the government was expecting Russian capital to "take an active part in the privatisation process" for all the state holding companies, citing 2016 as a likely date "it may be possible" to reduce state involvement in non-commodity and non-military holding companies. He also set out a wide range of objectives in a program of modernisation for Russia, ranging from education and science to expansion of cities and their infrastructure to underdeveloped land. Bureaucratic corruption should be curtailed and the legal environment improved to improve business competitiveness.

 

"Russia's new economy will be a diversified economy where many competitive sectors will be developed alongside a modern fuel and energy industry," Putin concluded.

 

Researched and written

by World Nuclear News

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rio wants in at Husab uranium mine

 

The Australian Financial Review

PRINT EDITION: 08 Feb 2012

Resources Daily

Luke Forrestal

Cap Town

 

Rio Tinto energy chief executive Doug Ritchie has for the first time openly stated the company's desire to partner in the development of the giant Husab uranium deposit in Namibia.

 

Husab is owned by Perth-based Extract Resources, which is expecting a $2.2 billion follow-on takeover bid from China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corp after the Chinese company secured control of almost 90 per cent of its 43 per cent shareholder, Kalahari Minerals.

 

Rio owns the Rossing uranium mine, which neighbours Husab (or Rossing South as it is otherwise known) and is the largest open cut uranium mine in the world.

 

The mining giant was a shareholder in Kalahari before accepting into the CGNPC bid and is the second largest shareholder in Extract with a 14.2 per cent stake.

 

Speaking to ResourcesDaily at the Mining Indaba 2012 conference in Cape Town on Tuesday, Mr Ritchie reiterated Rio's position that it would wait for a recommendation from Extract directors before deciding whether to accept the CGNPC bid.

 

He confirmed that the company was interested in a joint development of Husab regardless of which company ended up owning it.

 

"I think we've said consistently that the most efficient and beneficial [way forward] for all of the stakeholders - government as well as shareholders - is a joint development of Rossing South and Rossing and I don't think that there's anything about the industrial logic that's changed.

 

"In fact, I would say that conditions in the uranium market say that you find your economies wherever you can." Asked if Rio would prefer to be the operator of a mine at Husab, Mr Ritchie said it would make sense.

 

"There's lots of ways of how you can put these two assets [Rossing and Husab] together," he said. "But one's got an existing infrastructure, workshops, a plant and the other's just a deposit at the moment."

 

As CGNPC, which is state-owned, is a nuclear power company and not a miner, there is strong speculation it would be happy to cede operational control of Husab to a group like Rio.

 

Under terms imposed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, CGNPC has until March 1 to make an $8.65-a-share takeover offer for Extract.

 

Extract said earlier this week that it continued to investigate whether there were any available alternatives that could maximise value for shareholders.

 

The company's London-based managing director, Jonathan Leslie, presented at Indaba on Tuesday, but declined to go into detail about the CGNPC bid.

 

Mr Ritchie said Rio was actively looking to grow its energy asset base. He said there was no preference for uranium over coal, or vice versa.

 

"I'm a bit agnostic in terms of what I would rather be in. We've got a huge amount of expansion capability, whether it's in Mozambique or the Australian coalfields, inherent in the system "We've just made an acquisition in uranium and we've very positive about uranium in the medium to long-term.

 

"I'm quite happy with the mix that we've got and the way in which it will evolve.

 

Rio paid $C654 million for Canadian uranium explorer Hathor Exploration in November, trumping a rival bid by Cameco.

 

In April the company paid $4 billion for Riversdale Mining, giving it a large position in Mozambique's Moatize Basin.

 

The Riversdale tenements contain mostly coking coal, which is used in steelmaking. But there is some thermal coal present.

 

Rio reports its full-year financial results on Thursday.

 

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/ri...acacfAsW5RYh6SJ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now there is a twist. . . Rio want in but they just sold out of KAH.

 

Will we see them make an offer for the remaining portion of EXT which Taurus do not own?

 

One can only assume a deal has been done to clean up the messy cross share holding situation which presently exists.

 

f so, one would have to presume a deal has been struck behind closed doors with the Chinese. OK, so deals are done all the time - my only questions are:

 

(1) is such a deal legal?

(2) presumably such a deal being between RIO and the Chinese (and not involving EXT) was never required to be made public to SH's?

(3) if such a deal is in place; we already know Taurus must put the $8.65 on the table for EXT, and presumably RIO then come in with a superior offer; but just how big will that offer be? Will the Russians, Canadians, French or others come in with a bid if they see RIO getting their slice of Husab on the cheap? I wish they would but somehow don't expect we'll see any of those parties coming in when they know they will never control the entire asset and will have to end up in a complex JV with the chinese and whoever else. . .

 

Will be interesting weeks ahead team.

 

Cheers

 

Peter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gero, thankyou very much for this article.

 

This statement from RIO`S Energy Chief Executive Doug Richie puts a different light on things, a little bit.

 

Stating that they will wait for EXT`S recommendation before deciding to except CGNPC`S bid.

 

 

If I was on the board I would knock back the offer, and I hope the board does, reason being, there is $55 Million

 

in the bank, they EXT should keep drilling and continually prove up the resource for at least another 18 months, and by

 

then Uranium will be in short supply, and the price of Uranium would have risen quite nicely.

 

We would have all the big boys sniffing around by then wanting to get a bit of this Montrous resource, we would have money

 

throen at us left right and centre.

 

Unless of course the world economies fall over, and with RIO`S & CGNPC`S collective holdings of roughly 56%, they may take

control of the board and over rule us,

 

Hang on, I have just realiosed that is what this is all about, they get control and we are f-----d.

 

We are stuffed.

 

I am a dumb arse it will not let me edit, and I am not smart enough to find another way to do it,

 

Cheers.

 

Simmo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is all starting to come together. It now appears that the likely end game for EXT is going to be a RIO / CGNPC owned company (with Namibia taking a government holding). CGNPC are not going to mine Husab - they want the yellow cake and they want guaranteed supply. I wonder if the deal done in the UK could actually have been engineered by RIO for their benefit. I believe RIO is going to go after the remaining non-CGNPC share holding. In doing so they have managed to get themselves one hell of a low base price to bid from $8.65 for an asset this good. I believe RIO will trump the $8.65 see through bid from CGNPC and CGNPC expect this. The question in my mind now is what is the percentage loading above $8.65 that RIO will offer. Some have suggested 5% - maybe, maybe more.

 

There are two key things in RIO's favour:

 

1) The base bid price for EXT by RIO has been set by CGNPC at a bargain $8.65. This is important as RIO is only after 57% of EXT (less if Itochu stay on and they already have 14%) so there will be no forced surrender of the last 10% of the EXT share register (you and me!) as there would be under a 100% take over. RIO are going to have to buy out you and me on the market - they know this so keeping the base price down is important.

 

2) The EXT share price has been manipulated over the last few months around the $8.50 to $8.60 range.

 

The only thing I'm struggling to get my head around is Itochu's role in EXT. Will they sell to RIO or will CGNPC and RIO let them be the third minority share holder? If Itochu hold their EXT shares then RIO can get the rest on market BUT they are going to have to pay for it.

 

It has been mentioned many times before from our dear friends on this forum that top dollar will be paid for the small amount of the last remaining shares on the register.

 

Like many of you I have been holding since 2005 and RIO have always wanted this deposit. They will get it. China is the customer not the miner. My strong belief is that all the machinations with KAH have simply been to provide RIO with the lowest possible base bid price for the remaining EXT share register. At the same time China has just sured up its yellow cake supply for decades. RIO is suring up is ability to make mining profit. The Namibians (some of them) will get their cut too from taking a piece of the CGNPC holding and a piece from the future RIO holding.

 

Guys I would encourage you to hold out. As a block of minority holders we make up 10% of the share register. I believe RIO will need to pay up on market for the residual holdings. Let's hope so anyway.

 

Keep pressing on,

 

Paytrade

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too right Sulla.

 

I really don't care who is in bed with who as I own part of the bed! I'm happy to sell my part of the bed for the right price. Rio wants the bed and with their Chinese bed-fellow they have opened the bidding war for $8.65 for my bit of the bed. I kindly decline as this is one very very valuable bed! If I'm the last plank in the bed that they don't own, then the fun bit is I get to set the selling price as I'll wait and wait until they offer the price that I want.

 

Paytrade

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...