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In reply to: slayer on Thursday 03/02/05 09:18am

It's amazing how quickly chartists recover their poise. I betcha on Tuesday this same chartist would have going "significant break of support @ 49c - look for continued weakness".

 

Not that I have anything against chartists - I'm one myself. My beef is with the notion that every move that a stock makes, big or small, on every day, is capable of being framed in a "technical" context.

 

I'm a heretic, but I reckon you can only pull a meangingful message out of a stock chart perhaps once or twice a year.

 

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In reply to: slayer on Thursday 03/02/05 10:18am

Thanks for all that Slayer.

 

I for one had glossed over the reference to licensing negotiations with global pharmaceutical companies to be conducted during the next 12 months.

 

On the strength of that I picked up another 50K at 50c this morning.

Looking at the chart, there does seem to be a pretty solid base at around 50c, so unless the half yearly turns out to be a shocker, there should be little risk. But I thought the same thing at 55c late last year.

 

I really don't think that any sophisticated investor is expecting a profit for near future. They will all be adding back in R&D spend to examine the ongoing margin on sales. What would be annoying is another bout of "one off" costs.

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QUOTE (ty.webb @ Thursday 03/02/05 01:03pm)

QUOTE
I'm a heretic, but I reckon you can only pull a meangingful message out of a stock chart perhaps once or twice a year.

 

So in purely behavioural terms, describe what happened from the market participants point of view .. on an intraday basis during that day.

 

In one sense I agree with you ... in that there is really no foundation for a price prediction based on one days trade, but there is something to be said for the observation of the players as a result of the days trading. In a broad sense it was a "bullish" sign to reject the push down and for it to then close up .... but that single event does have to be placed into the broader picture of the stocks price action.

 

The interpretation of a move above 53c is more justified

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In reply to: ty.webb on Thursday 03/02/05 11:03am

fair call ty but in defense of this guy I did ask him a few weeks back what a break of the 49c area would mean and he said it's hard to tell because it's been supported here for so long. His summary was that you would have to see the behavior when then move happened hence his more bullish interpretation now - the move below flushed out buyers rather than more sellers is what I think he is saying and his interpretation of that is bullish but requiring confirmation above 53c.

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In reply to: thekiwi on Thursday 03/02/05 10:20am

Hi Kiwi

 

QUOTE
So in purely behavioural terms, describe what happened from the market participants point of view .. on an intraday basis during that day

 

Who knows?

 

Slayer has admitted to dumping 100k 'cos he wanted to buy his missus a car. Maybe he was in the bad books there and decided that chocolates and flowers just wouldn't do the trick. BC has admitted to developing misgivings over a period of time and he finally pulled the trigger. Maybe he just woke up in a grumpy mood.

 

What difference does it make?

 

The whole day was a minor skirmish in a war where the major divisions on each side are currently having a break back at the rear. In this situation, a 5-yard advance of the trench-line by either side is insignificant. It can just as easily be lost the next day.

 

QUOTE
The interpretation of a move above 53c is more justified   

 

Why?

 

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In reply to: ty.webb on Thursday 03/02/05 02:20pm

QUOTE

Slayer has admitted to dumping 100k 'cos he wanted to buy his missus a car. Maybe he was in the bad books there and decided that chocolates and flowers just wouldn't do the trick. BC has admitted to developing misgivings over a period of time and he finally pulled the trigger. Maybe he just woke up in a grumpy mood.

What difference does it make?

 

Mainly for the other side of the coin ... those are the ones we know who sold.... and there would have been others. What makes the price action for the day more interesting ... is that despite being sold down, buyers moved in to say "OK thats enough ... and its too cheap ... I'll get some of that". Its that response to the sell down which alerts those looking for such things and makes the days activity "bullish". If the stock had less "interest", Im pretty sure we would have seen an avalanche occur.

 

As to the 53c. Thats merely a psychological landmark, drawn in the sand so to speak, at which enough people have bought/sold, observed the stock at. A resistance point is merely where those holding say ... "Phew ... my buy price ... finally I can get out at break even". Its just a landmark around which the herd gathers to make a decision. A move above this area will signal that those for whom the price has been significant havent contributed and the price moves on. Really its nothing mystical ... its purely individual/group psychology.

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hey all been watching this one for a while without buying, mainly due to my hesitation with all biotechs due to the fact i have very little scientific knowledge and no real idea of how to predict potential profits from looking at "potential market size" which is so often spoken off. AGX have made this easier by providing the best possible esitmate off sales and profit, showing they are investor focused. I just have a few, probably simple questions for those here with more knowledge on boitechs and AGX in particular.

 

They expect to start phase two trials this month. Whats the best estimate of the time for this process? and then the following trials that need to be conducted and eventual product release? i noted from previous announcements they forecast a launch by early 2008 and the rest of the world by 2010?

 

What part of this process proves the technology is sucessful or not sucessful? phase two or future phases?

 

They forecast only 7% peak penetration in their valuation released last year. This is obviously based on the view that there is a strong competitor that will continue to dominate? note the below quote from the recent update

 

QUOTE
Whilst other imaging modalities
such as Doppler ultrasound and Computerised Tomography (CT) are expected to dominate in detection of
DVT and PE respectively, market penetration models show that even with modest peak projections 7
years post-launch, expected global sales of ThromboViewÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚® are upwards of A$570 million.

 

Does anyone have enough knowledge to say why this low penetration rate and expected dominance of competitors? Surely this should not be expected for new technology?

 

 

Has anyone had any contact with DH as to asking when/if they may come out with a new valuation report?

 

What is the significance to this 2L-10L testing??? what will 100L mean? I presume its in relation to blood ??

 

They have bank facility's that should allow them to issue to no extra shares right through to the commercialisation on Thrombo? just confimation enough

 

In relation to the other business units. What kind off profit do you guys think they would/could be making if they were not dragged down by the R+D? It seems a growth business from their presentations so any potential ideas of rough ballpark value for all the non-thrombo/research stuff. I note 40 mil in rev so 5% margin (arrow pharma margin) would give around 2 million or maybe 30 million in value???? Isolating this is important from a minimum value perspective.

 

 

I know I have asked a lot of everyone but am really interested and prepared to do some more research myself if i can be guided in the right direction. if anyone also knows how to simplyfy a description of how the test works that would be good also.

 

Cheers

 

Roddombo

 

 

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After reading today's post will wait for the results before deciding next course of action. The head says stay put until the numbers are out, think the market seems to have the same idea.

 

And yes, I was having a bad day - selling AGX took some doing - but worse is to keep drawing lines in the sand and then ignoring them. That cost me a LOT of money in the past, hope it doesn't this time!!

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In reply to: roddombo on Thursday 03/02/05 06:42pm

Not much time tonight so it will be brief I'm afraid. Welcome to AGX world.

 

They expect to start phase two trials this month. Whats the best estimate of the time for this process? and then the following trials that need to be conducted and eventual product release?

 

2 parts to this - DVT in the 1st half of the year and then PE in the second half. A separte Phase 1b PE trial is also being started by May and this could be a huge catalyst - once people see it can do DVT & PE safely this will be a company changer IMHO. Phase III will take even longer - my guess is start 2006 and end 2007 but you never know - if they sign a licence deal and the buyer is funding it and want it quicker they may set up so many trial sites it is over in 6 months - it's all about how much you want to spend.

 

What part of this process proves the technology is sucessful or not sucessful? phase two or future phases?

 

I think you will get about 75% plus after Phase II but as I said the Phase 1b PE trial will probably be explosion point.

 

They forecast only 7% peak penetration in their valuation released last year. This is obviously based on the view that there is a strong competitor that will continue to dominate? note the below quote from the recent update Does anyone have enough knowledge to say why this low penetration rate and expected dominance of competitors?

 

They don't expect TBV to replace the tests when they are just looking for either a DVT or a PE - it will be used when the doctor is looking for both or the chance of both. (I have had chats with doctors who say if it does both then hospitals will end up using it just to cover law suits! There are lots of tests such as ultrasound in lower leg that are clear and quick so will never be replaced by this. The company says 7% but I know some of the trial sites in phase II wanted to include patients that are in another grouping than AGX is targeting so once it is approved its market will grow much bigger then the initial forcasts because doctors already want to use it in other applications.

 

Has anyone had any contact with DH as to asking when/if they may come out with a new valuation report?

 

No but I'll bet they do one privately this year if they really are talking licence deals.

 

What is the significance to this 2L-10L testing??? what will 100L mean? I presume its in relation to blood ??

 

No this is in relation to the production material used to create the TBV product - they have made 2 litre batchs and 10 litre batches which 'apparently' is where all the commercial problems occur. The true commercial runs will be in thousands of litres but I think they are doing a 100 Litre run in Switzerland to help establish the protocols for the commercial size runs.

 

They have bank facility's that should allow them to issue to no extra shares right through to the commercialisation on Thrombo?

 

The have drawn some of this but you are right - they do have plenty of capacity - it just depend on whether they buy something or develop secondary TBV products or take the next stage on before a licencing agreement - if you can raise 5-10m and then get 45% of sales instead of 15% in a licencing deal because the product is further advanced it makes good ROE sense.

 

What kind off profit do you guys think they would/could be making if they were not dragged down by the R+D? It seems a growth business from their presentations so any potential ideas of rough ballpark value for all the non-thrombo/research stuff. I note 40 mil in rev so 5% margin (arrow pharma margin) would give around 2 million or maybe 30 million in value????

 

Have to wait to do number after half yearly is out - Ispy hasn't been seen for a while here but he usually does good work on this sort of stuff.

 

if anyone also knows how to simplyfy a description of how the test works that would be good also

 

Go through their presentations or website.

 

Good luck.

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Right off the beaten subject, but a quick question you people may be able to help with, just been researching the upcoming listing of Papyrus Aust Ltd (looks like a good idea but therea bit overpriced I think) to see if its worth throwing a few dollars their way and I noticed Chairman is David Wyatt, one of the founders of AGX, any comments?? Ie is he a good operator etc.

 

Cheers and thanks in advance

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