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When did you start positioning for the gold rally?

Weâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ve been investing in Australian dollar-exposed gold stocks since early 2015 - when the $A gold bull market started; $A gold is up more than 70 per cent since. The US dollar gold rally started in October 2018 and is up around 30 per cent since. Weâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ve been progressively increasing our $A gold exposures since late 2018.


What are your preferred equity exposures in gold right now?


Alacer Gold AQG is the standout large cap gold producer and very much still attractively priced despite its re-rating. Its Copler mine is world class and now cashflowing strongly after successfully coming out of a major spend phase. Alacer is unhedged to rising gold prices, unlike its ASX-listed producer peers, which is a significant bonus.


How much of your thesis is predicated on the macro?

A lot. Recession fears, trade wars, yield curve inversion, a one-in-ten-year Fed cash rate-cutting cycle underway, halting QT [quantitative tightening] by central banks and scope of more QE [quantitative easing], are all providing strong tailwinds for our gold thesis. Note the top four $US gold bull markets in history were all during US rate cut cycles.


Does Paragon have a gold price forecast?


Whilst we believe itâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s going higher, we expect to do well in our gold stock picks at current gold price levels. Any higher gold price is simply a bonus.


Is there a gold play you like that would be described as more speculative?


Ora Banda Mining, which is a small cap gold developer and not yet in production. However, it is very well placed, boasting a strong balance sheet and having modest capital needs for near-term 100,000 ounces [per year] five years-plus production. At spot gold prices, Ora Banda could be free cashflowing $100 million per annum versus its current market cap of $100 million. We expect it to go multiples.

John Deniz is the chief investment officer of Paragon Funds Management.

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Citi has made some wholesale changes to its view on the Australian gold sector following an upgrade to its gold price forecast. The bank now expects the gold price to average $US1,575 in the December quarter of 2019, a 9 per cent uplift, rising to $US1,675 an ounce in 2020 and $US1,750 and ounce in 2021.


OceanaGold and Northern Star Resources were upgraded to buy from neutral, while Evolution, Newcrest Mining, Regis Resources, Saracen and St Barbara Mines were upgraded to neutral from sell.


"These upgrades include significant earnings per share increases," the broker said, noting: "If high gold prices are a signal of global macroeconomic and political strife, they may not be entirely good news for gold equities."


The analysts said that the companies that benefit from a rising gold price are also defensive âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ those with low operating costs, strong free cash flow. modest capital expenditure requirements, low gearing and options for organic growth.


"Our best ASX 100 gold pick in this scenario is Northern Star, while among the higher-risk names itâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Resolute." "Our view of Evolution Mining and Newcrest Mining has improved, after share price falls, although weâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢re concerned about the possible effects on gold production if the eastern Australian drought, which started in 2017, continues for the medium term."

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We have all heard much higher forecasts for years.


Personally, I have recently heard indirectly through a very, very influential, extremely wealthy Chinese connection that as it is China and Russia's (among others) aim to break away from US$ as the pre-eminent fiat, forecasts as high as US$3000 by end of 2020 and $4000 by end 2021. Imagine the relative AU$ value !


Obviously we can treat this as hearsay and only time will tell the veracity of such predictions.


In any event, I believe we are at the beginning of a very strong bull run and whilst there will be wild fluctuations over the effluxion of time, nevertheless, as the world's troubles seem to be endless and approaching critical times, gold should be on a strong trajectory. It will finally be very interesting to witness when and at what level it overruns. $5000-10000-???

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Yeah, I thought they were pretty timid incremental changes. No-one is going to lose their jobs over such projections.


Of course the wildcard is AUD which may or may not continue its gentle downward trajectory.


- challenges to US status as Reserve Currency have fallen aside often enough up to now. Any catharsis that would bring change about would have other much more serious implications for the world's economies.

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The ASX-listed gold mining space could be in for a major equity raising in the months ahead, as Credit Suisse starts moving on a sale of Barrick Goldâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s interest in the $1bn-odd Super Pit mine. It is understood that the Swiss bank has started contacting potential suitors for the sale, with documents expected to soon hit the desks of bidders. The expectation is that Barrickâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s 50 per cent interest in the mine will sell for between $US300m and $US400m ($436m-$581m).


So far, the listed Northern Star is considered the most likely buyer, but other groups expected to take an information memorandum include Evolution Mining and offshore groups such as Gold Fields, Zijin Mining and Canadian miner Kirkland Lake Gold.


Should Northern Star or Evolution Mining buy the interest, the expectation is that an equity raising could be launched.......



- of course Newmont own the other 50%, and is considered to be a likely seller as well. ....


.....So, why are they selling?

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Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s strong copper-gold hit re-ignites interest in NSWâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s porphyry potential. ..... Spotlight turns to Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s highly leveraged neighbours DevEx and Alice Queen

- by Barry FitzGerald

Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s (ASX:ALK) big porphyry gold-copper hit at its Boda prospect in NSWâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s central west continues to be the talk of mining investor circles. The 502m intersection grading 0.48g/t gold and 0.2% copper has seen Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s share price climb almost 80% to 67.5c since it was announced on September 9.


Alkane said the drilling results provided âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“clear evidence of Cadia-style mineralisation and grade over hundreds of metresâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ, Cadia is of course the 3 billion tonne resource grading 0.36g/t gold and 0.26% copper being mined by Newcrest near Orange, with its gold production costs (after copper credits) coming in at a magical $US171/oz for the 912,000oz produced in FY2019.


Apart from the well-deserved share price spike for Alkane, the Boda find has served as a reminder that while NSWâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s porphyry systems have already delivered world-class operations like Cadia and Northparkes (Chinaâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s CMOC), there could be plenty more to come.


Thatâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s why interest in upcoming NSW porphyry drilling programs, particularly among the juniors where leverage to a big porphyry discovery is extreme, has taken off since Alkane released the Boda hit.



The increased interest in the NSW porphyry hunt as a result of the Boda discovery is sweetly-timed for DevEx (ASX:DEV), which is trading at all of 7.7c for a market cap of $10m. It began working up a NSW porphyry strategy a couple of years back and Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s success comes just as it gets to the exciting part of drilling the targets it has generated at its Bogong and Junee projects, with the first holes likely in the December quarter.


In light of Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s success, and the credentials of the Bogong and Junee targets, DevEx could be in for some interesting times.


Bogong is an interesting one in that it is kind of already a âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“discoveryâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ given the presence of high-grade historic copper workings and a drill hole 45 years ago by a long-gone company which returned 54.9m at 1.1% copper from 6.1m and 9.2m at 2% copper from 39.6m. It was not assayed for gold. Rock chip results from samples collected by DeVex have returned assays of up to 10% copper and 0.47g/t gold associated with a porphyry intrusive.


Taking all of the information together, DeVex reckons it is on to an open-ended copper-gold system which extends for more than 500m of strike with a width of about 100m âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ one which has never been lit up by modern day geophysics or drilling. DeVex is out to change all that, with geophysics planned to start this month to define drill targets for the fourth quarter drilling program.


The Junee project, 60km north-west of the Bogong project, was zeroed in on by DeVex after the NSW Geological Survey suggested that rocks within the project area were prospective for large-scale Cadia and Northparkes-type porphyry systems in that it was a southern extension of the Junee-Narromine Volcanic Belt.


The majority of the prospective rocks are masked by transported cover so the project area has missed out on the intense exploration efforts on the belt to the north, though there was some limited drilling 20 years ago.


That suits DeVex fine as there is nothing worse than trying to find a big discovery by having to drill in between myriad holes drilled by others. It has been working up targets where the rocks are exposed and is planning to firm up drill targets with some geophysical work.


It all means that the junior will likely be drilling two porphyry copper-gold targets in NSW at the same time.



Alice Queen (ASX:AQX) is another to benefit from the interest generated by the Alkane discovery. That should be no surprise given Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s discovery hole lies within 700m of the boundary of the companyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Yarindury project tenement.


Whatâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s more, Alice Queen reckons that based on magnetic data, the prospective Cadia-age rocks intersected at Boda extend at surface into its Yarindury ground where a trouser leg-shaped part of the tenement runs down from the north.


It said if Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s find proves to be a Cadia-scale (7km by 2km) porphyry field, then it is quite possible that significant mineralisation will extend across the boundary into its ground.


âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“As a priority Alice Queen will be surface mapping and sampling this adjacent area with a view to developing near-term drilling targets,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ the company said.


Now it has to be said that Alice Queen has not been waiting for the Alkane discovery as it has been working up multiple drill targets under thin cover along its coverage of the northern reaches of the Molong volcanic belt.


With its modest 1.9c share price for a market cap of $14m, Alice Queen was getting prepared though to bring in a partner with deeper pockets to fund a drilling campaign.


But because of Alkaneâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s success, Alice Queenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s phone has been ringing hot with fund manager-types asking if they could be of assistance. So the intention now is to self-fund the work on the ground adjacent to Boda and drill its priority targets to the north.


If any junior other than Alice Queen was making calls on what an adjacent discovery might mean for them, it would likely be dismissed as some nearology nonsense. But the companyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s technical adviser is none other than John Holliday, a co-discoverer of the Cadia deposits back in the 1990s when he worked for Newcrest in what was a long career of finding things.


Holliday reckons Alkane has made the best porphyry exploration discovery in NSWâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s broader Lachlan Fold Belt, away from the three mine centres (Cadia, Cowal and Northparkes), in the last 20 or so years. He signed off on Alice Queenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s NSW exploration update saying that Alkane discovery had âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“clearly further enhanced the prospectivityâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ of Alice Queenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s tenements which cover the same belt of rocks in areas where they have hardly been explored because of the cover.


In the meantime, St Barbara (ASX:SBM) has started on its $4m farm-in deal under which it can earn a 70% interest in an exploration joint venture at Alice Queenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Horn Island gold project. Drilling for a large-scale intrusion related gold system is likely to get going in the new year and like Alice Queenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s upcoming drilling back in NSW, will be one to watch.


Importantly, the existing 500,000oz gold resource outlined by Alice Queen is not part of the joint venture, nor is the infrastructure left over from a past gold mining operation on the island.

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after the initial hype and deep pocket buy-ins this stock is now rangebound based on the sell into any strength and the diminishing discretionary activity in the auction, in the 6-8c range this stock is offering good value i think if you have the patience to ...on the last release the market decided that release offered enough strength in the auction to sell into (albeit small daily turnover) and now late-comers are trapped...closer to 6c offer back of the napkin decent value even if gold/silver take decent hair cuts, it would have to be based on production of the site and possibility of largest find todate exceeding the current inground resource ......every likely a decent find will force a strong whip-up but that doesnt necessarily equate to a strong trend


RXL and VMC (joint venture) had a decent release and both failed to make higher highs .....so clearly there's tentative outlook and most players who wanted in, on recognition of the big swing in xauusd and xauaud, are now in ......


local SPX worth the DD tho

(not held)


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$spx in prev post appears to be headed to the 6c level, maybe exceed to .054's(?)

suspect it'll be a quick turnaround

the stock is primed for a whooshka event, most likely on a decent find,

the stock can already find joint partners to make a mine and go into production

once the initial shock of gold rotation in US s is over there'll likely be a resurgence of the possibility psyche (bulltrend mentality)which will aid most local goldies that are taking hits the past two trading weeks

the $XGD (it's components) chart looks like it needs one more high as it's mostly represents gold in AUD's so valuations are up for guesses right now

the pattern suggests a long unwinding process before leading to new index highs

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Former Senior Vice President of Ivanhoe Mining ltd. Joins Guyana Goldstrike


World Class Mining Executive Appointed-Former Senior Vice President of Ivanhoe Mining Joins Guyana Goldstrike




Guyana Goldstrike Inc. (TSXV: GYA) (OTC:GYNAF) (FSE:1ZT) announced that Mr. Edward Rochette has joined their Board of Directors. Mr. Rochette is best known in the mining industry in his role of Senior Vice President of Ivanhoe Mining ltd. where he spent 25 years negotiating and acquiring various projects in over 35 countries. Mr. Rochette presently consults for Mr. Robert Friedland, founder and Executive Co-Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., conducting mineral acquisitions in Utah, Nevada, Arizona and China.






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