Forex Trading

[flower]

Apparantly it was this announcement regarding the FED buying its own 30 year paper in addition to the USD43trillion that caused the Forex chaos overnight.---sorry shortcut appears not to want to open so have edited it, below though is the headline to the planned purchase schedule lasting through to the next FOMC meeting in September.

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Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule http://www.newyorkfed.org/images/spacer.gifAcross all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $18 billion. This is the amount of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-August and mid-September, adjusted for prior SOMA agency MBS purchases that have been allocated since August

[flower]

Financial troubles go worldwide

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Aug 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar pared losses against the yen on Tuesday after the Nikkei business daily reported the Bank of Japan is considering additional steps to loosen monetary policy.The paper reported that Japan's central bank may decide to take action sooner by convening an extraordinary meeting, depending on market conditions. Actions could include boosting its facility that provides three-month funding at 0.1 percent to 30 trillion yen

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2414230420100824

 

 

[flower]

One can only hope the FED/FOMC know what they are doing--or intimating they might do

Just look at todays Yen/USD rate chart movement--rest of the week has been bad enough.

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http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20...7BDG4&pos=2

 

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar depreciated below 81 yen, a 15-year low, and reached its weakest since January against the euro before reports likely to fuel speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further.

 

The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of six major trading partners, reached a 10-month low before data forecast to show slower gains in U.S. wholesale costs and consumer prices. Singapore's dollar rose to a record as the island's central bank said it will widen the currency's trading band to curb inflation. Australia's dollar reached the highest since it began trading freely in 1983 as Asian stocks extended a global rally. The U.S. and Canadian dollars reached parity, the greenback's weakest level since April, as minutes this week suggested the Fed may pump more cash into the economy.

 

"The market is in a state of anxiety over what's likely to come from the Fed," said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. "Dollar holders are very nervous based on the Fed minutes, which suggest more unconventional policy measures. That could result in them keeping their foot on the printing press for longer and harder than maybe anyone had thought. Everyone seems to be selling the dollar because of the Fed view."

[flower]

South Africa joins the race to debase it's currency ahead of the FOMC

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Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The rand slid the most in five months after Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said South Africa will use higher-than-expected tax revenue to boost purchases of foreign exchange as a means of weakening the local currency

 

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=ne...id=aSpfn6POebMg

[flower]

"Gird Up Your Loins"

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Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's push to jump-start the U.S. economy this week may weaken the dollar, forcing at least one other central bank to add its own stimulus to offset a rising exchange rate.

 

Bernanke is set to embark on an unprecedented second round of unconventional monetary easing, one result of which may be a cheaper dollar that boosts U.S. growth by helping American exports. A related consequence: stronger currencies abroad, threatening European and Japanese expansion.

 

With the major central banks all announcing decisions within 33 hours this week, fallout from the Fed could cause Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to do more for his economy and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to leave the door open to more aid. Even as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet holds the line against inflation, he may eventually change course if the euro surges, while emerging markets are already acting to restrain currencies.

 

"An easing in U.S. monetary policy creates pressure on the rest of the world to respond," said Dominic Wilson, New York- based senior global economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. "The subsequent weakening in the dollar tends to tighten financial conditions outside the U.S."

 

This week's meetings are the greatest concentration of monetary-policy action by leading central banks since the first week of October 2008, when they met in emergency sessions to fight the global financial crisis. On that occasion, all except Japan joined an unprecedented coordinated interest-rate cut.

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http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20...TtOjM&pos=1

[flower]

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China will force banks to hold more foreign exchange and strengthen auditing of overseas fund raising, stepping up efforts to curb hot-money inflows that may inflate asset bubbles and add pressure for a stronger yuan.

 

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce new rules on currency provisioning and tighten management of banksÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ foreign-debt quotas, the regulator said in a statement on its website today. The government will also regulate Chinese special-purpose vehicles overseas and tighten controls on equity investments by foreign companies in China, it said.

 

The measures underscore concern around the world that the U.S. Federal ReserveÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s expanded monetary stimulus will cause capital to flood into emerging markets. The yuan rose today by the most since the end of a dollar peg in 2005 as global leaders prepare to discuss currency tensions and the impact of the FedÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s easing at the Group of 20 summit this week in Seoul.

 

 

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20...id=ar7dShSNKVLA

 

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The consequences of the FOMC restarting QE gather pace.

[flower]

Notice how much the Chinese have allowed the YUAN to strengthen against the USD in just 12 months---and this before the inevitable next round of USD printing fervour.

[Brierley]

Interesting dynamics atm wrt AUD/USD

 

Australian CPI out tomorrow which might give us more certainty wrt RBA interest rate policy

 

USD currently getting a hiding on debt ceiling deal uncertainty.

 

Not saying it will happen, but a low Australian CPI number on Wednesday and a near term agreement on the US debt ceiling would see a nice pop in the USD against the AUD.

[flower]

Hi Brierley, Obama made the following adress to the nation earlier today:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/o...-s-economy.html

 

In this speech he said nothing new, but rest assured some sort of deal will be cobbled together by the default date, nothing will be solved--just more time "bought". USD and the US market should be lifted by that inevitable announcement and IMO you may well be right in that the AUD may be due for a drop, though somewhat doubtfull Oz will see a reduction in rates any time soon.

 

 

This from a later Bloomberg article:

 

Obama called on American lawmakers to put politics aside to reach a deal on a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“balanced approachÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ after Republicans and Democrats attacked each othersÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ plans for the lifting of the nationÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. House Speaker John Boehner said separately heÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s made a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“sincere effortÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ to work with Obama on a plan to raise the debt limit, adding the president created the ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“crisis atmosphereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ surrounding the issue.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“From the two speeches weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve heard, it doesnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t seem like theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re on the doorstep of coming up with a deal,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Stephen Halmarick, the Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about $150 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Markets will remain fairly nervous

 

 

 

[Brierley]

Hi Flower

 

In this speech he said nothing new, but rest assured some sort of deal will be cobbled together by the default date, nothing will be solved--just more time "bought"

 

Maybe not a lot solved, but, rightly or wrongly, the market would like it if the Republicans gain some ground on fiscal policy.

 

USD and the US market should be lifted by that inevitable announcement and IMO you may well be right in that the AUD may be due for a drop, though somewhat doubtfull Oz will see a reduction in rates any time soon.

 

Agree, doubtful RBA will cut rates in near future. Was just suggesting a possible confirmation of no near term hike if CPI number low.