Forex Trading

[flower]

Japan had the first RADICAL change in Government for 50 years, this was just one of the planks the new Government will

take action on. The result was not just a change but a LANDSLIDE reaction.

 

Given the shift in world politics this involves, the Forex reaction over the next few weeks is going to be very interesting (IMHO)

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July 13 (Bloomberg) -- JapanÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s opposition party, leading in polls ahead of next monthÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s election, said the nation should consider shifting its $1 trillion of foreign reserves away from the dollar and buying International Monetary Fund bonds.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“In the medium to long term, we need to do what we can to avoid the risk of currency losses or economic turbulence that could result if the dollar were to swing,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Masaharu Nakagawa, the shadow finance minister in the Democratic Party of Japan, said in an interview in Tokyo on July 9. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Many countries are starting to diversify their reserves.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

Japanese investors are the biggest foreign holders of Treasuries after China with $685.9 billion of the securities in April, and Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said last month his trust in the bonds is ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“unshakable.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ The DPJ yesterday beat the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in elections for TokyoÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s city assembly, boosting its prospects ahead of national polls that Prime Minister Taro Aso today called for Aug. 30.

 

 

[flower]

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- China's yuan forwards rose the most in more than three months on speculation a government report this week will show a slump in exports slowed, giving the central bank room to allow currency appreciation.

 

Overseas sales fell 19 percent in August from a year earlier, after declining 23 percent in July, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists ahead of the data on Sept. 11. That would be the smallest drop since March. Shipments increased from the previous month, Reuters reported yesterday, citing Li Kenong, vice head of the customs bureau.

 

"The market is quite sensitive towards any sign of export recovery," said Liu Xin, an analyst at the Hong Kong branch of Bank of Communications Ltd., China's fifth-biggest lender. "The dollar's decline is also behind the yuan's rally."

 

Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards gained 0.41 percent to 6.7415 per dollar as of 5:30 p.m. in Shanghai, the biggest increase since May 22, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The contract climbed as much as 0.5 percent to 6.7340, the highest level since July 2.

 

The People's Bank of China set the yuan's daily reference rate at 6.83 today. The last time it was fixed stronger was May 26. The U.S. Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against those of six major trading partners, slipped 1 percent, a third day of declines.

 

"We see considerably more upside in the one-year yuan NDF in the event of a sub-6.83 fixing," Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asia research at ING Groep NV, wrote in a research report today.

 

Policy Signal

 

In the spot market, the currency traded at 6.8275 per dollar compared with 6.8290 yesterday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The yuan climbed above 6.83 for the first time in more than three months on Sept. 4.

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Big Change in 9 trading sessions.

[kelt]

Here is a weekly chart of the Aud/ Usd. Up against some strong resistance.

[flower]

Is that trouble--with a capital T--that's brewing?

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Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama may find on his Asian visit that began today that discontent about China's currency peg to the dollar isn't confined to Washington's lawmakers and business lobbyists.

 

From Mumbai-based Alok Industries Ltd., which supplies Wal- Mart Stores Inc. with textiles, to Bangkok-based semiconductor packager Hana Microelectronics Pcl, Asian companies say Chinese rivals have an unfair advantage because of the yuan-dollar link. The dollar has declined 14 percent in the past year against the currencies of six major trading partners.

 

In meetings at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore and then in Beijing, Obama probably will discuss China's fixed-rate policy, which has prompted central banks in India, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan to accelerate dollar purchases to curb currency appreciation.

 

"It's just outrageous, the impact on their neighbors and on relatively poor countries," said Simon Johnson, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2007 and 2008 and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

 

As Obama seeks to push the Group of 20 goal of rebalancing the world economy from excessive U.S. consumer spending and Asian exports, South Korea's won gained 8 percent against the yuan in the past six months. Japan's yen has risen 6 percent, while India's rupee gained 6 percent and the Thai baht 4 percent. The yuan is a denomination of China's currency, the renminbi.

 

 

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etc etc

[arty]

More by accident than design, I'm holding a significant short position in GBP since last October. (no interest accruing )

ForEx isn't really my main hunting ground, so I'd appreciate opinions from you FXperts: Should I cover? Or is the AUD headed towards parity against the pound as well?

 

With "normal" instruments, I'd apply Fibonacci as per the attached chart. Do FX rates follow the same principles?

(Logic would suggest they do, but as I said: it's not my area of expertise.)

[early birds]

With "normal" instruments, I'd apply Fibonacci as per the attached chart. Do FX rates follow the same principles?

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it dose arty! and it follows TA more religistly than others.

you could make yourself more buck in this field since you are a good TAer! imho

[kelt]

Here is the Euro daily. Looks like it's started a 5th wave down.

 

 

Next Down Leg for the Euro

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18043.html

[flower]

Perfect currency turnarounds

[hungry]

Flower

For once I would agree.

The USD has bearish divergence (dly) at this top. The Euro has bullish div. The AUD has a double bottom in play.

Currently long EUR/USD. Just remember there is strong resis at the 1.2150 area & there is always the possibility of a retest of the low.

 

PS don't about the perfect bit - no such thing in a traders world

[flower]

The Yuan against the USD has strngthened quite a bit in 7 days.

 

Lets see what happens to all currencies next week after the G20 meeting.