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there was 99% chance the fed would cut rates - so why anyone would short is interesting.. either way, they got bashed to a pulp after the announcement.


i'm trading using 4hr graph's - so i don't pay attention to those random patterns that are outliers to the actual trend.


i see aud/usd stabilising around 93 for at least some time yet.. AUD has made stellar gains in the past 2 weeks.

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yeah i wouldnt of minded the dip however it hit one of my stops and closed my position, so only had one position left when it went up.



oh well something learnt there, wider stops are required at times.... good learning and broke even at the end of the day so no complaints there.


With the talks of two rate rises in the near future the dollar should hold up quite well

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aud/jpy has been a thorn in my side of late - i tried to short it yesterday @ 107 when i thought it was clearly overbought - i got punished and got stopped out as it continued to climb...


then this morning i saw it was still strong @ 105 so i decided to short it again - with a 35 pip lee way - i got stopped out again within 5 minutes!!!!


decided that third time should do the trick and i placed another short in - this time it paid off.. rode the wave down from 105 to the high 103s before jumping ship..


managed to recoup my losses, and pocket a tidy gain..


Goes to show that timing is everything - even if your conviction are correct!!!


Now, with a few hours before the BOE releases its decision on rates - the market has not factored in a cut - and expects rates to go on hold... However i think there is enough data to suggest that there is >50% chance the BOE will cut by 1/4.


Cable is a good trade post annoucements - and usually you can ride the wave of sentiment post annoucement with confidence...


If they cut rates, i see at least 100pip potential.

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  • 1 month later...

EB, I really like the AUD/USD here on, expect a solid uptrend from here (I feel) after 0.8554 became a significant low.


That gap at 0.9100 created in early Nov might be closed soon you reckon.


Last night the Dow tumbled over 200 points, and yet the AUD had a positive night, first time I have ever seen that.

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In reply to: crowman28 on Thursday 03/01/08 02:37pm

happy new year Crow, and good luck for 2008!!


yeah, that little gap at 91c is the target for this run i think.

the weak data promped bit of selling on US dollar last night----market think Fed will cut rate more aggressive and yet we are face more rate hike at aussie. so there you go!


if i hold long aud/usd, do i get paid for interest ??

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In reply to: early birds on Thursday 03/01/08 04:01pm

Happy new year EB, hope you do very well in 2008.


Yes, for every 100,000 AUD longs you get paid USD 2.80 per night, so not too bad?


I like the bottoming pattern formed on the weekly chart, I'll just grab some longs at current levels and hold until that gap is filled.

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