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In reply to: wink on Tuesday 08/11/05 03:00pm

 

Hi Wink

 

 

STU (Stuart Petroleum)

 

last share price: $1.14

Share on issue: 63 million (only)

Market Cap. $72 million

Cash in Bank $13 million

No debt

Last Divident $0.02 per share

 

Oil Production 2900 bod

Production forecast 800-900000 bo/year

Production cost $28 per barrel

 

Loss of revenue due to hedging $15 Million per year

 

 

Oil reserves 3.6 million barrels

Oil inground @ A$30 = $108 million

Cash in bank $13 million

Loss hedging $15 million

 

Total value on oil reserves $106 million

value landholdings $ 10 million

Total value $126 million

share on issue 63 million

share price $2,00

 

So here we have a share price of $2,00 for Stuart based on current reserves.

Can you imagine how the share price would jump if they find more oil with their curent 14 well drilling schedule.

 

The Padulla discovery of more then 1 mmbo recoverable has given much needed replacement of reserves and probably more will follow.

 

Keep also in mind the Stuart is making more then $100,000.00 per day profit by pumping 2900 bod.

 

Each well the drill on their own without joint venture partners will be paid for from two weeks oil production!!

 

Not only is Stuartfocussing on oil , at the moment they are doing a feasibility study for a diesel refinery in the Cooper basin as an add on value for their oil.

 

So I challenge anyone who does not agree with the fact that Stuart is undervalued.

 

My figures tell me $2 per share with current oil reserves and any additional oil or gas find will push this higher.

 

jojo

 

,

 

Stuart is unloved unwanted and so undervalued.......

 

 

 

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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 28/12/05 05:13pm

Hi Jojo

Where did you get your reserves and cash in the bank figures from

I thought their last reported proven and probable reserves were 2.64mmbls at 30-06-05.

I guess they have produced around 400k brls since then so that makes it 2.2mmbls left

Padulla estimate is 1 mil brls so theres potential for a reserve upgrade to around 3.2mil brls

I couldn't find a recent announcement that says 3.6mil brls reserves

Is your cash in bank of $13mil an estimate of operating profit for the last six months or is there a recent announcement about this.

Thanks

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In reply to: Brierley on Wednesday 28/12/05 06:16pm

Hi Brierly,

 

The cash in the bank would probably higher today as Stuart had $13 million cash in the bank and receivable on 16 november news release. See the ASX announcement.

 

You will in the same announcement the info about padulla being an estimated 1 million bo recoverable.

 

This will bring about 3.6 million barrels in reserve.

 

Because all the focuse is now on companies like COE , TAP, Beach ect Stuart is forgotten, for those who keep the eyes open it is one of the best opportunities to buy in cheap.

 

With the next 12 or so wells being drilled we should anticipate even more upside and therefore imho STU is a screaming buy.

 

My hedging valuation of a loss of $15 million is very conservative as most of that hedging will be gone in 6 months time.

 

jojo

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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 28/12/05 06:30pm

Thanks for that Jojo

Don't forget to subtract the last 6 months production from your reserves figure

I make it 2.64 mil brls (as of 30-06-05)

less estimated 450k brls production July to Dec 2005

plus estimated 1 mil brls from Padulla

total 3.2 mil brls

I value STU somewhere between 1.30 and 1.70 depending on whether you use $25 or $30/brl for reserves and including or excluding exploration acerage.

Not sure the market is all that excited about the refinery idea and the focus on gas.

But I agree it's a good buy at 1.14

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In reply to: Brierley on Wednesday 28/12/05 07:00pm

Jojo,

 

While I agree with your general thread, at 100 bopd if Padulla was a million barrels recoverable, then it would take 10 000 days to recover ie about 30 years.

 

Thus, I'd be reluctant to count Padulla oil as much as Worrior oil, as Worrior's oil gets monetised faster.

 

Ian Whitchurch

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Wednesday 28/12/05 08:38pm

Are'nt Stuart planning to drill another 4 wells at Padulla.And wouldn't this bring Padulla to around 400 bopd.I also must be one of the only people that like their idea of a refinery.I would be grateful if Ian could give his views on the refinery idea, as he has a lot more experience on the oil scene than me.

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Wednesday 28/12/05 08:38pm

Hi Ian,

 

You are totally right that the flow rates from the Padulla 2 well have been a little dissapointing and following Tino should be somewhere around the 100 to 200 bod.

 

But hopefully they can achieve better flow rates with the drilling of more wells. In the meantime Tino seems to be very upbeat about this new oil field and believes that it will have a material impact on Stuarts bussines.

 

So I would not just brush it aside as it is still early day and hopefully as I have said before they can achieve better flow rates with the drilling of more production wells.

 

To go past this subject wat do you think about the idea of a diesel refinery in the cooper basin??

It sounds like a good idea to get a value added product and thereby extracting more revenue from your oil.

 

Would like to hear what you think about it.

 

thanks

 

jojo

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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 28/12/05 09:22pm

A refinery is a good idea, if just as a negotiating chip with Santos, but Stuart need to make a move out of the Cooper.

 

They need to pick up some slabs of dirt, do some work on it, and be able to show they have a plan for when Worrior runs out.

 

Right now, they are looking a lot like Santos. And that scares me, because Santos had to start betting a lot of money in big drills to replace the Cooper.

 

Ian Whitchurch

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Wednesday 18/01/06 08:18pm

Hi Ian,

 

Thanks for your reply,

 

I believe you are right and Stuart will have to follow COE out of the Cooper.

One thing I like about Stuart and that is the fact that they will have the financial means to do so , by the time they want to spread there wings.

 

They are making heaps of money and the bad hedging is basically a thig of the past.

So I still have some of my money on Stuart as they are producing and making heaps of money to put away in the bank.

The small amount of shares on issue has always excited me.

 

I keep holding and hope for more oil from Cooper targets and at eventually , one day see them expanding out of the Cooper.

 

jojo

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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 18/01/06 08:37pm

Jojo,

 

The problem is of course that as time goes on, the price of deals will go up.

 

Dont forget, CNOOC and INOC are moving offshore in a big way, and that pulls KNOC, Videocon and a bunch of other companies most Australians have never heard of in their wake.

 

Two years ago, they could have managed it.

 

A year ago, it would have been doable.

 

Now ... well, lets see.

 

A years time ? Good luck, Tino.

 

Ian Whitchurch

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