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In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 14/08/07 09:54pm

O.K. guys, I have been doing a little research on this Company - I am a big fan of PDN.

I wondered who the largest shareholders were. I could not determine the largest shareholder CDS & Co (30.08%) the others ranging down to 12th position (last years figures) CEDE & Co. Did a search - they are very big shareholder in Westpac and the notation referred to the infamous 1 trillion anonymous fund - blamed for the "controlled" sharemarket crash on Black Monday - October, 1987. Should we be worried by the perceived manipulation of our Share Price. I also was caught by the takeover of HDR. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif

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Just for those who may be wavering - Dines Interim Bulletin this morning (which I can't quote directly for copyright reasons) basically advises to hold the faith and let the selling burn itself out. The longer term outlook remains unchanged, and nothing has changed with ANY of their stock picks, of which PDN is one. He acknowledges that it is painful to watch and sit through, but mass panic selling like yesterday and overnight again, is a sign of the approaching bottom of the slide, as hedge funds get out of their uranium holdings, which is what this is all about. It has NOTHING to do with junk mortgages etc.

 

He also points out that rallies at the end of a dip like this tend to be sudden and explosive as the stocks move back into favour, and those with longer term viewpoints will be bargain hunting. Also, the big predators, like Mega, Areva, etc, are cashed up to the eyeballs, and may make some BIG moves.

 

Hope that makes you feel just a little better.....

 

 

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In reply to: NightStalker on Thursday 16/08/07 06:33am

 

Thanks Nightstalker,

 

it's always nice to have a little cheer in these gloomy PDN days. I was amused to see where we ended up today.

 

Like you I am still a long way ahead on this one, but as a trend-follower I am obliged to admit that I made a bad mistake by ignoring my rules on this one, whatever the result. Not to worry. I am in the fortunate position of being able to hold for as long as I choose.

 

Regards,

Monteverdi.

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In reply to: nizar on Thursday 16/08/07 08:17pm

 

In that I have managed my other positions rather better in recent weeks and have no need for immediate cash. I have decided to turn to fundamental analysis on this one, if only to save face, and I believe that it will recover. Don't ask me where to.

 

I could be wrong, of course, as I am not very good at fundamental analysis and I recognise that the market is not particularly interested in my beliefs.

 

Regards,

Monterverdi.

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Spot Uranium Falls To US$135/lb

 

Monday, 2 July, 2007

 

by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

FN Arena

 

What only a few weeks ago seemed but a distant possibility is now official: the uranium spot price has pulled back. TradeTech, one of two industry consultants that determine a benchmark price setting on a weekly basis, has decided to cut US$3 off its previous US$138/lb benchmark figure to send ripples through the industry with a first price fall in 47 months.

 

The cause behind this development is as clear as sunshine: professional speculators have grown more cautious about entering the market for U3O8 (uranium concentrate or yellowcake) and pushing up prices indefinitely. For a more in-depth explanation, we happily refer to our weekly analysis from June 26 (ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“Can The U3O8 Spot Price Fall?ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ).

 

FNArena has received several bearish market comments over the past few weeks, mostly sent to us by our readers, with some commentators predicting spot uranium has peaked and is on its way down.

 

We believe these predictions are likely to be proven wrong as demand for uranium continues to grow and supply is not readily available to satisfy all buyers at this point in time. It remains very unlikely this situation will change in the short term.

 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank seem to share this view as they increased their average price forecasts for the next three years - and quite significantly so. Deutsche Bank now forecasts an average U3O8 spot price for 2007 of US$122.1/lb (up by 31% from previous forecast) with prices expected to rise further in the two following years.

 

The average price forecast for 2008 is now US$156.3/lb (up by 56%) and for 2009 the figure is US$175/lb (up 67%). Deutsche Bank has penciled in a noticeable supply response from 2010 onwards with the average price anticipated to decline to US$95/lb in the year.

 

We do agree with the view that an era has come to an end: the era of no matter what you buy, as long as it has the tag uranium attached to it. Again, we find a similar view in Deutsche BankÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s latest industry update as the broker preaches caution towards Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) because of the production challenges that lay ahead. The broker advocates ERA shares should trade at a discount to other producers until the problems with its flooded pit 3 in the Northern Territory have been resolved.

 

Deutsche Bank remains positive about the prospects for junior producer Paladin Resources (PDN) rating the shares a buy with a $10 price target for the year ahead. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

No doubt, close followers of the industry will argue that the era of ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“everything uranium is goldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ already ended some three months ago.

 

And they are correct.

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from Aegis

 

PDN recorded a FY07 tax loss of $38M, which included a $7M loss for Langer Heinrich, $13M in finance costs and $11M in corporate costs. The company's Langer Heinrich operations only produced 119,586lb of U3O8 for FY07 which was significantly below its original forecast. As a result, it appears the company had to purchase 250klb of U3O8 to assist in meeting some early third party contractual deliveries. PDN expects Langer Heinrich to reach its nameplate capacity (2.6Mlb pa) in the 3Q08.

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