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Heavy buying...interesting to see Orbis increasing their holding in excess of 12% and somebody soaking them up again today. Anything we should know about? When Orbis held 8mil shares that represented 2% of their fund. Now they are into 50+mil where does that take their weighting? Seems a lot for a small stock
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Now they are into 50+mil where does that take their weighting?

 

Around 3-4%

 

Seems a lot for a small stock

 

Yes - NBS would probably be one of their top dozen holdings now.

 

But they bought a lot at the start of the run in the low 20s. In fact, they probably started the run. I make their average entry price around 34c, so its not like they're taking a hiding.

 

I also figure that without Orbis support, the stock would be back to the low 20s by now. They seem to have been the only keen buyer since the news flow stopped.

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This must be ramping at its best. Look at the accounts, not to mention the rhetoric.

It pays to be a skeptic in this game.

Orbis must be genuine, but, anyone can be duped. Look at who fell to ... what'shisname ... Madoff.

How many fund managers had their oars into Madoff's promises???

Orbis has the 'investment' allocated into 16 separate funds. Pretty hard to say you're wrong when you are in this big.

The more money you have the longer you can keep the story going.

If you are right and the cash comes in you are a hero. If wrong, well ... we were duped ...

Good luck. Seen this before. This is not the full quid. You know the saying ... twat looks toooooo goooood ...

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Orbis has the 'investment' allocated into 16 separate funds

 

Into 8 actually. Biggest allocation is into their own Australian Equity Fund, where the holding would be about 2% - not 3-4% as I mentioned previously. 2% was reported as at end of September.

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Hi ty.webb

I stand corrected - however, page 3 of the Orbis latest SS notice lists out 16 different fund names but fund managers can be a bit confusing at times.

I see NBS is down 35% today to 19 cents. Assume based on this announcement released half an hour before mkt close today.

A case of make of it what you will but doesn't look too good.

 

Discl. Hold none. Never held any. Never will...

01004922.pdf

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No - it doesn't look good at all. The big question now is whether there's another shoe to drop with regard to the China deal.

 

At a price of 20c, the market cap is around $86 million. This is much too low if the China deal is for real and much too high if it isn't. So I guess the market is saying that it only half believes it.

 

I notice that in today's announcement, the company conspicuously avoided any mention of China. If might have been a good time to pass on re-assuring news - if there was any to pass on.

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ty.webb, I have followed the posts on this one with great interest for about 5 months now. There is something really wrong here. There are too many questions and ... where are the answers? As a by-stander on this one I find it intriguing. To me this is a case of shoot first and ask questions later. I would be out. Pronto. What if this is an elaborate fraud? There will be red faces at Orbis before too long. When funds managers decide to bail they get out fast and don't take prisoners. Hope you are ok with this one. Don't skimp on the research. Be a skeptic. The signs really don't look too good to me.
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It's been an interesting stock to follow for the past few months - quite illuminating - and I don't think the fun and games are over just yet.

 

The story so far can be followed quite easily on a price chart.

 

On March 24, Orbis marched into the stock causing a spike and other people scrambled to find out what it was that Nexbis actually did. A week later, it was announced that printing had commenced on the Malaysia project and a lot of people like me got set on that day (see my post of April 2).

 

No cloud appeared on the horizon until June 15 when the company announced that it had 10 million in cash. Good news on the face of - but the pros dumped. Why? They were expecting more.

 

The same pattern revealed itself on August 21 when the Preliminary Results were released. Wonderful profit but nearly all of it in Receivables - and the pros dumped again. Where's the cash?

 

Same pattern again on October 1, when the Statuary Accounts were released (see my post of Oct 1).The pros dumped again and I was with them on that day. Time to flee.

 

What did the pros know? Not much really. They had simply done their sums very carefully based on available information and worked out that the Malaysia contract was probably a dead duck (see my post of October 5). There were some earlier clues as well, for those who cared to see them (change of Govt. in April, insiders like Sovereign Key selling out, Houston leaving the company etc). Put together, these all made a pattern.

 

The "surprise" news came out today, and the amateurs dumped as well, which leaves Nexbis with the prospect of an unruly crowd at their AGM. Will they release positive news about China in the interim? I wouldn't hold my breath. The same pros who worked out that the Malaysia contract was dead in the water always took the China project with a grain of salt after they discovered the TPID/James Mackay connection. Of course, they could be wrong about this. The market is always full of surprises.

 

 

 

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Very good explanation of proceedings but you missed part of the story and one that cannot be explained very easily. On 26th October Orbis announced to the market they had spent $2,000,000 buiying NBS stock and increased their holdings. Three days later the news on the Malaysian contract comes out. How did they not know?
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That's a very good question - and one that people who were following the NBS story closely were asking themselves all the time. "What the heck is Orbis doing? Do they know something we don't?"

 

I suppose one problem with holding 10%+ of a small-cap stock is that you're either committed or not. You can't make a big committment and then change your mind the following month because you hear a runour. Also Orbis is a contrarian type of investor - Simon Marais would be used to hearing negative comment and scuttlebutt surrounding the stocks Orbis holds. Also, Orbis would be holding 50-60 stocks at any time - you can't follow up every story on every stock like you can if one stock happens to be your entire universe for a period.

 

Another thing is that absence of proof isn't proof of absence. Some people might have been highly sceptical that the Malaysian project was proceeding - but they didn't know for certain.

 

Let's have a look at a few recent developments. On October 19 there was a fairly detailed statement from the Malaysian Home Affairs minister concerning the foreign workers situation in Sabah. However, in that statement there was no mention of Nexcode. This wasn't proof that the Nexbis project wasn't proceeding - but it was telling, given that Nexbis was meant to help solve the problem of properly documenting foreign workers. Similarly, when it came to the Malaysian budget of October 23. Again, there was no mention of the Nexbis project. This didn't prove that the project was dead - it just added another layer of serious doubt.

 

 

 

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