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Great story today in the AFR that highlights ETC as one of their low risk small caps with the most upside potential. The title of the article is "Small Caps to watch for big returns". They listed their "bull case" as the price could double over the next year. The "bear case" is that their may be contract payment delays. Both of these items are listed on this forum so maybe the AFR reads SS.

 

I ahve been holding this stock for about a year now and it is the same price as when I bought it. I was too nervous to jump in for more when it went to 20c so I am hoping for the doubling so I can make some scrilla from this.

 

Long term holder and nto nervous anymore.

 

Kuri

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ETC's share price has been knocked around over the last two trading days primary because of macro-economic events that have no bearing on ETC's business, but which have caused a sudden reversal in investors appetite for risk. This reappraisal of risk has put downward pressure on a wide basket of stocks, and ETC has simply been caught up in this downward momentum.

 

Ironically, the weaker macro-economic environment entails a weaker AUD, which will actually boost ETC's bottom line. Additionally, ETC's long term govt contracts are more or less immune from macro-economic variability.

 

If I had my choice of the perfect stock to buy and hold during periods of macro-economic uncertainty, it would be a company that is: (1) debt free, (2) has long term government contracts, (3) is growing strongly (has more large contracts in the pipeline), (4) is generating plenty of cash, and (5) is yet to be properly recognized by the wider market so is still trading on a tiny earnings multiple. ETC fits this bill.

 

ETC is still a relatively new and unknown stock, and uncertainty regarding its business and FY09 profit forecast remains. However, providing ETC hits its FY09 and future profit forecasts, and providing we get sufficient macro-economic stability, the market is eventually going to become comfortable with the ETC story, and re-rate the stock accordingly. In my experience, this re-rating often happens quite suddenly.

 

As of today, ETC is trading on a fully diluted FY09 earnings multiple of 3.7, and, according to the lodge partners forecast, a FY10 multiple of just 1.75. (The lodge partners forecasts must be taken seriously because Lodge are very close to ETC management, and these forecasts were, with the usual caveats, endorsed by ETC management during a recent fund manager presentation in Melbourne).

 

It might sound crazy to say this right now, but given ETC's incredibly low current earnings multiple, a return of 200-300% over the next 12 months is by no means out of the question.

 

I've been buying ETC since 22c and made another purchase today. In my view, ETC's upside potential far outweighs the risks.

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Sharescene yet to create new thread for NBS, a little slow I see. Maybe the share price needs to double this week to get the forums attention. Could be a big couple of weeks coming up, and if all is well a srong re-rating on the cards.
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No prob byronbay. I think if we can break 54/55 cents with volume then we enter blue sky territory which is what we want for the stock. If the results announced on thursday are good and guidance is even better then NBS may very well do something special. Heres hoping it all goes to plan.
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a definite re-rating on its way!

 

Hope that re-rating is not what we are seeing today ! :puke:

 

Down to 48.5c after yesterdays high @ 57c

 

After a number of profitable ETC trades over the past three months my avg. cost price is now at 16.1c.

Can't complain about that.

Ta PA.

 

 

 

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