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Deutsche analyst Craig Wong-Pan has kept his Hold rating on CSL and trimmed his target price 2.5 per cent to $198 after visiting its US headquarters.

 

He says the heavyweight health stock has a strong revenue outlook but some margin concerns.

 

While gaining comfort over our FY20 immunoglobulin revenue growth forecasts and reduced risks associated with obtaining the Chinese approval of AlbuRx, he notes that US collections are moving into different demographics which in his view could lead to lower plasma yields and lower margins.

 

At the same time, HAE production will be increased significantly and investment is being made into manufacturing CSL112 while phase III trials are being undertaken.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“We continue to rate the stock a Hold given the limited total shareholder total shareholder return,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ he says...

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CSL had earlier flagged that transitioning to its own distribution channel in China would have a one-off impact on FY20 financials. On Friday the company quantified this impact in the form of a decline in albumin sales by -US$340-US$370m.

 

Citi analysts estimate the impact on net profits will be around -6% with the impact on cash flows to be much lower, also because CSL will continue to collect outstanding receivables from existing distributors despite the accountancy change/delay.

 

Buy. Target unchanged at $236.60.

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A strong year for CSL with reported net profit after tax of $1,919 million, up 17% at CC and revenue up 11% at CC, reflecting;

- Continued strong growth in immunoglobulin and albumin therapies

- High patient demand for specialty products Haegarda & Kcentra

- Successful evolution of the haemophilia therapies portfolio

- Seqirus delivering on strategy, with strong profit growth

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¢ Earnings per share $4.236, up 16% at CC

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¢ Final dividend of US$1.00 per share (approximately A$1.48)

- Total full year dividend increased to US$1.85 per share, up 8%

- Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$2.68 per share, up 18%

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¢ FY20 net profit after tax anticipated to be in the range of approximately $2,050million to $2,110 million at CC representing a growth over FY19 of approximately 7-10%. This growth takes into account the one-off financial headwind of transitioning to a new model of direct distribution in China

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CSLâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s chief executive Paul Perreault outlined that the companyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s products, across the board, had contributed to its strong result. He said its largest franchise, the immunoglobulin portfolio, was performing exceptionally well, with Privigen sales growing 23 per cent and Hizentra sales up 22 per cent.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“In part, driving the growth in demand has been our new CIDP (Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ a debilitating neurological disorder) indication for Hizentra and the inclusion of this indication for Privigen in the US market,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ Mr Perreault said.

 

CSL highlighted that global albumin sales grew 15 per cent when compared to the previous year, with albumin sales into China making a strong resurgence in the second half.

 

The results also showed that Haegarda sales grew by 61 per cent and Idelvion sales were up 40 per cent. âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Haegarda, our therapy for patients with Hereditary Angioedema and Idelvion, our therapy for Haemophilia B patients, have been transformational products and the sales growth reflects this,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ Mr Perreault said.

 

Mr Perreault added that demand for CSLâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s plasma and recombinant products continued to be strong. âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“We expect to again outpace the market in growing plasma collections and plan to open around 40 new collection centres in fiscal 2020,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ he said.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The recent dip, attributed to news of refocusing / tweeking it's China strategy, has been left in the dust when CSL reported strong ðŸÃ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’‚ª numbers across all divisions.

 

(now my biggest holding - picked up in 2005 for much less)

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