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From AFR today

...."blood products group CSL was a big loser on Monday. Its share price slumped 7.5 per cent to five-month lows after broker Goldman Sachs JBWere warned of downside risks to earnings and cut its rating on the stock.

 

"Should investors wait until fiscal 2007 for earnings growth that they are being asked to pay for today? We believe not," GSJBW said in a note to clients."

 

Plenty of contrary thoughts though and enough upside for me to hold.

 

 

 

 

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ouch! i'm still an optimist though.......

 

a bit more here:

 

GSJB Were Sees Earnings Risks At CSL

May 16 2005 - Australasian Investment Review ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ (AIR)

 

Recognition of emerging risks to consensus earnings forecasts in FY06 is behind GSJB WereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s move to lower its short-term rating on CSL (CSL) to Underperform from Marketperform. The broker has not changed its long-term rating of Hold.

 

 

The broker sees downside to FY06 earnings coming from several factors, including ongoing execution risk that may not see forecast margin increases realised, sluggishness in plasma price increases and inventory profit roll off.

 

The last is significant in that the broker estimates the company would need to lift underlying profitability by 70% in FY06 just to maintain a flat profit result.

 

The broker suggests these risks could extend into FY07, increasing the risk that yearÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s forecasts also are not achieved.

 

As a result the broker has cut its EPS forecasts in FY06 by 9% to 134.7c and in FY07 by 6% to 195.1c, while valuation has been trimmed to $26.50 from $28.00.

 

Six of the other top ten brokers rate CSL a Buy, while three rate the stock as Hold/Neutral.

 

from:

 

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=1887

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  • 2 weeks later...

Red Cross Contract Lapse A Plus For CSL - MS

 

Wednesday, May 25, 2005 10:49:11 PM ET

Dow Jones Newswires

 

 

 

1230 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley believes decision by CSL (CSL.AU) to let toll fractionation agreement with American Red Cross expire at end of 2005 "should give CSL greater control over their own financial destiny" while also freeing up significant capacity for CSL to manufacture its own brand plasma products. While admitting financial impact difficult to gauge, says move removes pricing leverage concerns flagged by CSL, while further industry consolidation a positive. Retains overweight recommendation, CSL last up 21 cents or 0.7% at A$30.20.

 

from:

 

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_840045.html

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CSL To Benefit From Increased IVIG Demand, Says ABN

May 27 2005 - Australasian Investment Review ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ (AIR)

 

One of CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s major competitors, Baxter, held a conference overnight providing positive comments on the IVIG (intravenous immune globulin) industry, ABN Amro Morgans reports.

 

 

Baxter indicated an increase in demand, as doctors are treating neurologic immunological diseases, such as MS, with IVIG. This is not a use suggested "on the label". Apparently, European doctors are doing the same thing.

 

Furthermore, pricing for IVIG continues to improve, ABN reports. The broker estimates IVIG prices for CSL at US$38/g in FY05, $40 in FY06 and $38 in FY07. Recent surveys suggest long term contracts were being struck at $45-45 for powdered IVIG, the broker says.

 

Every US$1 increase in the IVIG adds A$0.87 to ABNÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s valuation of CSL, thus suggesting considerable upside potential. The risk lies in irrational behaviour by the industry resulting in oversupply, the broker suggests.

 

ABN rates CSL a Buy with a 12 month price target of $37.38.

 

from:

 

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=1962

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optimist, DRRC hehe you're gonna hate me but i've just bought CSLFU's put options. =)

 

reason..

trading below major moving averages.. and to make things worse.. for the first time it over a year its trading below the 200day moving average.. its been trading below the 200day sma for the past 4 days.

 

wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 29.20 before seeing it drop to hit $24.53 this month (yes for those that are wondering my ex price is 28.50)

 

here's the chart with the 200day sma

 

and before anyone says anything, CSL's a bit too big to ramp, so no im not ramping the stock down (if that makes any sense) just stating MY POINT OF VIEW.. you've heard it from an optimist, now here's the other view.

post-16-1117797376.gif

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In reply to: Gadget on Friday 03/06/05 09:16pm

cheers gadge- ya bloody party-pooping pessimist!!

 

but i think you may be right. the trends not so friendly atm. we may see a plunge towards $24 or months of going nowhere for a while......

 

as the hpv vaccine gets close to release we might enjoy kaboom times again......

 

happy trading g!

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In reply to: drrc on Saturday 04/06/05 08:59am

lol when the "kaboom" times come again we'll both be buying up stock and call options like mad men! =)

 

have a great weekend DRRC =)

 

 

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In reply to: Gadget on Saturday 04/06/05 03:11pm

I think you guys are going to miss the boat, CSL was sold off a month or so ago and that was the buy MRE reports this today

"CSL: Well Placed For Plasma Recovery

 

CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s recent acquisition of the Aventis Behring business has put it in a strong position to take advantage of a recovery in plasma product prices. Industry feedback points to ongoing improvements in the Plasma products market over the past twelve months. In the following research article Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) outline their positive view on CSL across the Aventis Behring integration period.

 

Across the period of the Aventis Behring acquisition (from 2005 to 2007 financial years) Macquarie estimate that CSL can increase their pre-tax earnings margin to 24%, before any potential upside from new product royalties. The margin was 18% in 2004. CSL has stated that its initial target for pre-tax earnings margin is 25%. This relies on achieving stated synergy benefits of US$130-150m but is also dependent on product upgrades for plasma.

 

Industry feedback points to ongoing improvements in the plasma products market. Based on this data, MacquarieÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s price assumption for US plasma grows from US$38.00/g to US$43.20/g across the integration period of FY05 to FY07. Providing filings are approved by the FDA, CSL could have subcutaneous and liquid versions on the market over this timeframe - a potential upside.

 

In terms of MacquarieÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s forecast for the acquired Aventis Behring business, less than two percentage points of margin expansion needs to be gained from cost efficiencies. Macquarie expect this to be achieved through the improved industry dynamics. The balance comes from cost benefits of integrating CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s existing business with Aventis Behring.

 

The timing of inventory profits is creating a level of uncertainty. If the remaining inventory profits are recognised earlier than expected, it demonstrates that demand is strong. However, it creates a hole in FY06 that the synergy benefits will not fill. This is a timing issue that does not impact cashflow or the underlying performance of the business.

 

Macquarie maintain an Outperform Recommendation on CSL and a 12-month share price target of $36.80. Current share price weakness may represent a buying opportunity for investors'

 

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haha wholly crap, i think i might have missed the boat *fingers crossed*

doh!!!!!!

hehe

 

csl just cracked resistence!

argh.... bad news for put holders, great news for accumulators

 

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