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Vaccine against cancer causing virus awaits approval

 

The World Today - Thursday, 16 March , 2006 12:22:00

Reporter: Karen Barlow

ELEANOR HALL: The Federal Health Minister has indicated that the Federal Government is likely to support a national immunisation program for young women to vaccinate them against a virus that can cause cervical cancer.

 

Australian of the Year, Professor Ian Fraser, has been trialling a vaccine he developed against the papilloma virus and his results have been very positive.

 

But some public figures have expressed concern that the vaccine could encourage promiscuity in young women.

 

Karen Barlow reports.

 

KAREN BARLOW: The Melbourne company CSL has taken Professor Ian Fraser's human papilloma virus vaccine to the Therapeutic Goods Administration for approval.

 

Another two companies would manufacture the vaccine and CSL would mount a school-based vaccination campaign for 11 and 12-year-olds as well as a late teen catch-up program.

 

The vaccine's creator, Professor Fraser, says girls have to be caught before they become sexually active.

 

IAN FRASER: Well, clearly it depends on exactly what's resolved from the process of reviewing the vaccine, but it's certainly my belief that the vaccine will be most efficacious if given to a young woman somewhere about between the age of 12 and 15.

 

KAREN BARLOW: So this would be a program much like the rubella shots?

 

IAN FRASER: Yes, it would be given roughly at the same age as rubella or a catch up for measles.

 

KAREN BARLOW: But after the TGA assesses safety and health effectiveness, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee will then look at cost effectiveness.

 

The Federal Health Minister, Tony Abbott, has told Lateline that a cervical cancer vaccine has his qualified support.

 

TONY ABBOTT: If this human papilloma virus vaccine comes through those two processes, it's very, very likely indeed that the Government would support it under the national immunisation program.

 

KAREN BARLOW: There has been concern from abstinence supporters that such a vaccine encourages promiscuity by reducing the risks associated with sex.

 

Queensland Nationals Senator, Barnaby Joyce, was quoted along similar lines by a national newspaper earlier this year.

 

Senator Joyce says he was misquoted, and regardless, he's now had a meeting with Professor Ian Fraser to clear the air.

 

BARNABY JOYCE: I'd probably recommend it for use in my own family but that's my own business. You know, whether other people choose to use it is something else. But it sounds like a very good position to be in, but I am not a doctor, I'm an accountant. So I'll be reserving my opinion for how it goes in regards making money.

 

KAREN BARLOW: A lot of politicians had views on RU-486. You don't see it as a similar moral issue?

 

BARNABY JOYCE: Well, it's completely different to RU-486. One's there to cure cancer and stop you from dying and the other one is to bring on the death of human life in the form of a foetus. They're two completely different drugs.

 

KAREN BARLOW: Tony Abbott has told Lateline he also has no personal problems with such a vaccine.

 

TONY ABBOTT: This is a health issue it's not a moral issue.

 

KAREN BARLOW: The Human Papilloma Virus affects 80 per cent of women, usually without symptoms.

 

It has about 100 strains. Two are responsible for most cases of cervical cancer, while two others cause genital warts.

 

Professor Fraser's vaccine targets those four strains and with its success rate in worldwide trials it promises to virtually eradicate cervical cancer within a generation.

 

He says if approved it will be at least a year before a vaccine program can get underway.

 

from:

 

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2006/s1593261.htm

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CSL poised for big profit injection with flu vaccine

 

VISION 2010

Robert Gottliebsen

March 18, 2006

 

CSL chief executive Brian McNamee believes he has three of the world's largest drug companies - Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis - over a barrel in the global flu vaccine market.

 

CSL is demanding that the giants allow Australia to take 10 per cent of that market by 2010.

 

McNamee believes they have no choice because CSL, as the main southern hemisphere flu vaccine producer, can make vaccines for the northern hemisphere on a low, marginally costed basis.

 

I cannot recall an Australian drug company ever being able to stand up to global competitors that carry a combined market capitalisation more than 50 times the local minnow.

 

Glaxo and Novartis have recently executed multi-billion-dollar takeovers where flu vaccine was a key product, and McNamee reasons the last thing they want is a price war which would decimate the value of their purchases.

 

CSL can enter the US and European markets with an investment of only $80 million in a new plant in Melbourne because it has a 26-country distribution system that it set up to handle plasma products. Although flu vaccine has a totally different customer base, the chilled-product distribution systems are the same.

 

McNamee will not mince words with Sanofi, Glaxo and Novartis, should they try to keep CSL out by slashing the price of the vaccine. "All my modelling tells me that the pain they will inflict on us will be trivial compared to the pain they will inflict on themselves. Most companies aren't stupid. We are cautiously confident."

 

Later, he elaborates: "We are a very efficient manufacturer of flu vaccine. I can be confident that we can enter the markets and capture market share because we know the incumbents have to tolerate us and it is much easier to be an accepted new entrant when you have a growing market."

 

Assuming CSL passes US and European regulatory requirements, 20 million doses of Australian flu vaccine will be exported to the US in 2008-09. By 2010, CSL will also have invaded Europe and the operation will be in full swing.

 

If CSL captures 10 per cent of the US and European flu vaccine markets in 2010, it will involve around 30 million doses (it will have capacity for 40 million). If the price is $US10 ($13.60) a dose (lower than current prices), CSL would have additional revenue of $US300 million. Given the marginally costed basis of its production, the profit margin would be high, resulting in a substantial rise in CSL's 2010 profits.

 

CSL has two other major profit boosters between now and 2010 - the human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV) and its traditional global plasma business. That's why CSL shares are priced around $54, or almost 26 times its expected profit in 2005-06 of about $380 million, or $2.10 per share (calculated by adding back a $33 million non-cash tax adjustment required under international accounting rules).

 

HPV, based on early CSL and University of Queensland work, is being produced by Merck and flu rival Glaxo. Merck is expected to achieve between two-thirds and three-quarters of the HPV market, which is good news for CSL because it receives higher royalties from Merck sales than Glaxo.

 

An important milestone will be the June 8 FDA review date, but by 2010 it will be close to peak sales. Analysts say that the HPV market will be between $US1.5 billion and $US4 billion. If we conservatively assume the market is $US2 billion by 2010 and that the average CSL royalty is 6 per cent of that revenue, then the company would have a pre-tax net income of $US120 million.

 

McNamee won't comment on that speculation, but says: "I would be disappointed if $US100 million was its peak benefit to us, but I would not be shattered - it's still very good. I think the product could be more important to the world than that."

 

Add HPV royalties to the flu vaccine and we are looking at an after-tax profit rise of more than $200 million in the next four years from two new products.

 

The base global plasma business is now a superb operation. CSL has about 24 per cent of the plasma product market where blood is the raw material. It is slightly larger than its rival Baxter, although Baxter is larger in synthetics.

 

CSL virtually bought the US-based Aventis operation for a token price because most of the purchase price was recouped by stock realisation.

 

And CSL emerged from the combining of its European, US and Asian operations as a very low-cost producer with a balance of costs and revenues that substantially lessen its currency exposure.

 

Importantly, CSL is able to extract more products from a litre of blood plasma than its rivals. It is working on new products and systems to further improve its productivity and product extraction. But the expected $380 million 2005-06 profit is an important base milestone and reflects the benefits of the integration.

 

To increase plasma profits further requires a continuation of the current 6-7 per cent market growth. CSL, as the leader, expects to do a little better than the market as well as increasing productivity. This will steadily build up plasma profits, underpinning the contribution of its new ventures.

 

In addition, CSL will handle the marketing of HPV and other Merck vaccines in Australia. This will be an important profit earner in coming years.

 

If CSL lifted its current base net profit of $380 million from existing operations by just 10 per cent annually over the next four years, it would add more than $150 million. So, with flu vaccine exports and HPV royalties it has a real chance of doubling its $380 million profit by 2010 and earning more than $4 a share (based on the current capital), which would be a staggering achievement.

 

What can go wrong? For the analysts concentrating on short-term profits, the company is looking to lift its research from $150 million to $200 million, which will hold back profit but lift long-term potential. If the company achieves a breakthrough, it might lift spending much further.

 

To maintain long-term growth, CSL must not stint on research and the board must ignore the analysts' "short-termism". The most dangerous threat facing any drug maker is regulation. If CSL falls foul of FDA or other drug regulators in a major product, then its business could be damaged and its share price will fall sharply, given that such reverses are not factored in by the market.

 

But CSL has clear global management risks which could trigger an FDA problem.

 

No Australian drug company has ever established a global distribution system covering 26 countries accompanied by substantial production capacity in Europe and the US.

 

If CSL stumbles over FDA issues or management execution, it will be a prime takeover target for one of the giants. However, given that Peter Costello set the precedent with Woodside and North West Shelf gas, it is unlikely that Australia would allow CSL, which was based on a small government-privatised asset, to be owned by a global giant.

 

Increasingly, McNamee is now focusing attention on driving profits beyond 2010. CSL aims to develop new drugs that it can use in its distribution system. The most obvious are cancer drugs, because servicing cancer patients is very similar to servicing most of the patients using blood plasma products.

 

CSL is also looking at fostering new discoveries by smaller operators that are suitable for the CSL distribution system. The company's current cash flow is approaching $500 million and its proposed capital expenditure less than $100 million. The company is in a growth business and may seek to use the excess cash to expand and add more products to its distribution system. If it can't find opportunities, then the cash will come back to shareholders.

 

The advantages of McNamee's transformation of a small government-owned plasma plant will be apparent, not only in the next four years, but after 2010. His plans will also be an enormous boost to drug research in Australia, which is a key plank for McNamee's scheme for 2012 and beyond.

 

The CSL board showed amazing courage in allowing McNamee to send the small Australian company global. It will require just as much courage to grasp the opportunities to spend the enormous cash that being global generates.

 

from:

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html

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Patent setback for scientist's cancer vaccine partners

Bernard Lane

March 22, 2006

 

THE commercial partners of scientist Ian Frazer have suffered a setback in a patent case involving a crucial component of the cervical cancer vaccine that made him 2006 Australian of the Year.

 

The partners, the University of Queensland and CSL Ltd, failed to show that Professor Frazer's team had successfully synthesised the virus subtype that would prove crucial to the vaccine, according to an Australian Patent Office interim decision.

 

That distinction went to US scientists at the University of Rochester, one of four scientific groups working on the human papillomavirus in the early 1990s. The Rochester team was the first to find a simpler way to make HPV16, the subtype that occurs in 50 per cent of cervical cancers.

 

The vaccine Gardasil, which could generate annual sales of $US1 billion ($1.4 billion) to $US3billion, is designed to protect against HPV16 and three other virus subtypes.

 

Professor Frazer's has been the most prominent name in the media, followed by that of UQ colleague Jian Zhou.

 

Asked whether the Rochester team deserved more credit, Professor Frazer said: "I acknowledge all of them [the other groups working on HPV] but I believe that what they did was derivative from what we did."

 

His 1991 breakthrough was to show how virus-like particles could be made, opening up the prospect of an HPV vaccine.

 

His generic HPV patent in Australia is unchallenged and predates rival claims.

 

The vaccine continues its progress to market, thanks to a February 2005 agreement between Merck and Glaxo, the global pharmaceutical companies that stand, respectively, behind Professor Frazer's team and Rochester's. But patent attorney Steven Borovec, who acted for Rochester in the Australian patent case, said he was surprised Professor Frazer had not had more to say about the contribution of Rochester.

 

"He knows that the HPV16 in the vaccine is not his," Dr Borovec said. "And he knows that if you pull that subtype out of the vaccine it's much less effective."

 

Asked what he thought of the media coverage, Robert Rose, a Rochester team member, pointed to a correction in The Washington Post newspaper.

 

The Post had run a photo of Professor Frazer last October, crediting him as the sole developer of the vaccine.

 

Its correction said: "He was one of several researchers whose work led to the vaccine; they included scientists from the [uS] National Institutes of Health, Georgetown University and the University of Rochester."

 

Under the 2005 Merck-Glaxo agreement, covering licensing and patent rights, Glaxo is to receive an up-front payment and royalties from Merck based on vaccine sales, according to a statement posted on the Glaxo website.

 

In a statement at the time, Australian company CSL Ltd, which had pre-existing licensing deals with Merck and Professor

 

Frazer's university, said those deals would be unaffected by the Merck-Glaxo agreement.

 

In the Australian patent case, UQ and CSL launched a mostly successful challenge to Rochester's patent claims, except in relation to HPV16.

 

The university and CSL have another chance to challenge Rochester's claims, which have been reworked after its interim victory. Rochester could have the patent within months, although a Federal Court appeal still would be possible.

 

John Cox, an intellectual property consultant for CSL, said that notwithstanding the patent decision Professor Frazer had indeed made HPV16 successfully. But Mr Cox conceded that Rochester had beaten Professor Frazer to the simpler method, which is the method used in the vaccine.

 

In its July 2005 ruling, the patent office said the university and CSL had given two different reasons for Professor Frazer's problems with HPV16, suggesting that "even now, the art is not well understood".

 

At first, the Rochester team itself did not appear to understand exactly why they had succeeded with HPV16, the office said.

 

from:

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...5E12332,00.html

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In reply to: drrc on Wednesday 22/03/06 07:48am

lobal Vision for CSL

By Robert Gottliebsen Print this article

Watch the Brian McNamee interview

Hear the Brian McNamee interview.

 

 

 

 

Brian McNamee is one of Australia's longest-serving chief executives, having been in charge of CSL since 1990 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ four years before the former Government enterprise was privatised and listed on the ASX. He has transformed what used to be the stuffy Commonwealth Serum Laboratories into a global leader in the blood plasma business and a player in the burgeoning market for flu vaccines.

 

In today's interview with Robert Gottliebsen*, McNamee says he expects CSL to get up to 15% of the global flu market.

 

Robert Gottliebsen: What are the most exciting things that are going to happen between CSL between now and 2010?

 

Brian McNamee: I think weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got some tremendous opportunities. We think that the plasma business is doing very well, ZLB Behring. WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got flu to take to the world and of course weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re very excited about Gardasil and HPV royalties that are coming forward.

 

And whatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s the outlook for plasma?

 

WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got a lot of very good things happening in plasma. WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve rearranged the supply chain so weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re a low-cost producer. WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got very high-yielding manufacturing plants and, finally, weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got a lot of important new developments in plasma moving to liquid IVIG and also some of our specialty products. WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re moving to take them around the world so lots of reasons, I think, to be positive about the plasma business.

 

With the ZLB Behring, youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve also developed a global distribution business.

 

We have. We are very strong ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ we have subsidiaries, commercial subsidiaries, in 26 countries. They market themselves specialty products. TheyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re another point of leverage inside the organisation as well as potentially partnering with other companies.

 

Will you use that distribution business for flu?

 

Absolutely. These people have tremendous commercial skills. ThereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a lot of overlap between the way in which flu products are registered, the way in which theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re distributed into markets, and even in some countries the way theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re purchased ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ so with the flu thereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s another quality growth opportunity for the company.

 

Brian youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got some big competitors in the flu business. The French, Glaxo and other giants. Do you think theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll let you in?

 

WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re quite confident that as the market grows and the recognition of the importance of flu. Regulators are also recognising they want diversity of supply chain and so we provide geographic as well as true diversity as a company, and then finally weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re a low-cost producer so we know that we can be competitive. We have an existing capability and I think that our market share aspirations are very reasonable and I think consistent with a market that will tolerate our entry.

 

What sort of market share are you looking at?

 

We sensibly are looking at a global market share about 10ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“15% ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ some markets higher than others. I think weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve said weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢d like to take 15ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“20 million doses to the US, a little less into Europe and some into Asia. ItÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s reasonable [based on] our balanced view of the northern hemisphere.

 

Now if those big companies wonÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t let you in, thereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll be a price war?

 

Well I just donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t think thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a very likely scenario. WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve operated here in Australia for a long time in flu. We have six competitors. I think itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a market that recognises that whatever pain they can inflict on us in the short term would be much greater for themselves than it would be for us in trying to keep us out. I think that growing the pie will be the objective of the other three major participants.

 

LetÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s turn to the Merck HPV venture. How big is it going to be and will it be there by 2010?

 

Well look certainly analysts are forecasting and we certainly concur that preventing cervical cancer is a huge medical breakthrough and a significant market opportunity, potentially in the billions, and certainly Merck hopes that theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll be first to market the US. We believe also in Europe that they can be the market leader with anything up to two-thirds to three-quarters of the sales in that market and that sales can commence this calendar year. So I think weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re all very optimistic about the future of this vaccine and what itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s going to do for medicine and women.

 

So by 2010 you could be receiving well above $100 million a year?

 

Certainly weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢d be hopeful of that, and I think if the marketÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s as big as some forecast it could be, yes, above that number.

 

Brian how much will you spend on R&D by 2010?

 

Well certainly in the next few years IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢m looking to take the R&D budget from $150 million to $200 million. I think that if our success continues with flu, with Gardasil, with HPV royalties and plasma business, certainly IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll be looking to grow that budget so certainly north of $200 million would be a reasonable aspiration I think at that point in time.

 

And that research is designed to provide you with the products to continue the growth beyond 2010?

 

ThatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s the corporate objective: to try and develop now some breakthrough innovative medicines often based out of science weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re doing here in Australia. This is our centre of biotech innovation here at Parkville, and weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll globalise that through our commercial network ZLB Behring. ItÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s really the long term, 10-year goal of the company to really be a successful specialty biopharmaceutical company.

 

You like taking risks donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t you?

 

I think we are a great believer in having the courage of our convictions. We believe that CSL has some great people, great internal science and skills that are truly internationally competitive and weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re willing to back our judgement that we could compete with the best and win and I think weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve demonstrated that so far.

 

* Robert Gottliebsen is a business commentator with The Australian.

 

 

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IVIG Market In Shortage Alert

March 29 2006 - Australasian Investment Review ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ (AIR)

 

When commenting on listed stocks in the health sector itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s easy to occasionally overlook the fact that there are people relying on medical products for their livelihood. It is in this vein that we can report (with reluctant pragmatism) that CSL (CSL) and Mayne Pharma (MYP) will likely benefit from a shortage of IVIG product (IVIG is a solution of globulins containing antibodies normally present in adult human blood. It is used for maintenance treatment of people who are unable to produce sufficient amounts of immune globulin antibodies themselves, such as HIV patients).

 

 

Deutsche Bank reports inventories of IVIG and Albumin (a specific blood plasma protein that is produced in the liver) products are sitting at a "yellow alert" level, indicating an uncomfortable 2-5 weeks supply. DeutscheÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s investigations, however, suggest the shortage is really far more acute than the official figures suggest. And that should be good news for the ones producing these products.

 

from:

 

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view...d=3778&setSub=1

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from abn amro:

 

Optimising CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Capital Structure

 

With CSL forecast to generate significant free cashflows through to FY08, the likelihood is that itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s gearing could fall to as low as 26% over this time.

 

Such a low gearing is not necessarily a good thing, so long as the debt is used to create value for shareholders. If CSL were to maintain a gearing level of 35%(in line with global peers) through to FY09, it would accumulate some A$1.7bn. We see several uses for this;

 

1. Acquisitions

 

2. Expansionary Capex

 

3. Expansionary R&D

 

4. Capital Management

Of these options, Capex and R&D are already in line with global peers, and so would seem to us less likely options. Acquisitions are a possibility, however we see the most likely(and beneficial) option being an on market share buyback of up to 5.8% of the shares in the company. Such a move would be EPS accretive by FY07.

 

CSL just keeps on delivering, and for the longer term players out there, we see it as very hard to ignore.

 

from:

 

http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrant...ED66F21D309C%7D

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From ABN-AMRO: April 2

 

 

CSL Ltd.

 

Cervical Cancer ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Prevention & cure?

 

The success of CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s preventative HPV vaccine has been widely discussed, but what has not been fully analysed is the potential success of a vaccine to treat women already infected with HPV.

 

HPV has been shown to be the causative agent in the vast majority of cervical cancer incidence. Cervical cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death amongst females around the globe.

 

Should CSL be able to develop a vaccine that can treat women already infected with HPV, it should be able to massively reduce the instances of cervical cancer around the globe. Not only this, there is a strong likelihood the vaccine may be effective against other forms of cancer such as anal, mouth and oesophageal cancer.

 

It is estimated that up to 630m people worldwide are infected with HPV. ABN AMRO attributes a 20% chance of success to the HPV treatment vaccine and a risk weighted valuation for the potential vaccine of A$1.22 per share.

 

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