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"......McNamee's enthusiasm is understandable, and not only from a public health perspective given that 300,000 women worldwide die each year from cervical cancer.


Gardasil's licensee, pharmaceutical giant Merck, will pay an estimated 6 per cent royalty to CSL for sales of the vaccine outside Australia and New Zealand, where CSL itself will be the marketer.


Investment bank Citigroup expects global demand to peak in 2011, by which time Gardasil is expected to have reaped a 56 per cent share of a $US4.5 billion ($5.9 billion) market. That's $US2.5 billion compared with $US2 billion for GlaxoSmithKline's rival product, Cervarix, which will be launched 12-18 months later.


Merck not only has first-mover advantage over GSK. Gardasil has the added attraction of providing protection against genital warts, and this opens up the market to vaccinate men as well.


All going well, McNamee is happy to put his name to an estimated pre-tax royalty flow for CSL in the range of $100 million-$200 million a year.


For Citigroup analyst Andrew Goodsall, this equates to $3.16 per CSL share.


He has set a $42.96 price target for the company, well ahead of Friday's close of $37.46, up 96c........."


more here:



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Ferret's Stock to Watch: CSL LTD


08:35, Monday, 10 October 2005



Sydney - Monday - October 10: (RWE Aust Business News)




CSL Ltd (CSL) has jumped into the big time with a home-grown

blockbuster drug.

It is a scientific breakthrough in preventing cervical cancer and

likely to save millions of lives.

The discovery received high praise from medical reporters on

major American television stations on Friday.

One doctor says it will open the door to other discoveries for

the protection of the whole population from many diseases.

It has universal application for world medical research in

detecting that a virus is the cause of cervical cancer.

CSL chief executive Brian McNamee could not hide his excitement

yesterday during an interview with Alan Kohler in the ABC.

"We see it as a blockbuster drug with the potential for royalties

of between $200 million and $300 million," he said.

A Merrill Lynch analyst suggests the HPV vaccine could add

between $4.61 and $7.20 to the the CSL share price.

Mr McNamee in convinced that the company is on a sure winner.

He had nothing but praise for its partner, Merck, which should

have the product on the market by next year after approval from the US

Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

"It's been fantastic; Merck has done a a superb job and its a

case of all systems go"," Mr McNamee said.

"We see it as a blockbuster drug," he declared.

On Friday CSL reported that an investigational vaccine, developed

by Merck & Co based on technology licensed from CSL, prevented 100 per

cent of high-grade cervical pre-cancers and non-invasive cervical cancers

associated with human papillomavirus.

Merck is on track to submit a licence application for GARDASIL

to the FDA.

Mr McNamee told the Australian Financial Review that "the success

of this phase 111 trial validates CSL's commitments to realising the

potential of Australia's first-class scientific base and represents a

further step in recognising the value of our research and development


"CSL is proud of the development of this investigational vaccine

from discovery of the fundamental technology by Professor Ian Frazer of

the University of Queensland in 1991 to its potential filing for approval

for international marketing by Merck & Co Inc."

The CSL chief executive stressed the company had new drugs in the


CSL is working on a vaccine to halt any signs of pandemic flu or

the Asian bird flu.

The company will complete a trial of the product by the end of

this year.

Mr McNamee believes CSL is a unique product company and there are

lots of opportunities to grow.



Shares of CSL jumped 96c to $37.46 on Friday after touching

$38.80. Rolling high for the year has been $39.97 and low 25.38. Dividend

is 47c to yield 1.25 per cent. Earnings per share is 278.85c while the

p/e ratio is 13.43. The company has 181.8 million shares on issue with a

market capitalisation of $6.6 billion.

At the same time Merck was receiving plaudits for its work with

CSL, testimony from one of its witnesses was struck from the record by

the judge in the second Vioxx trial, ruling that the drug maker misled

the court.

On Friday Merck shares were the Dow industrial average's poorest

performer, tumbling 98c, or 3.7 per cent, to $25.85. The court ruling was

perceived as a major blow in its Vioxx trial.



When the company was listed in 1994 hardly anybody wanted to know

What a difference a decade makes.

CSL Ltd is a global, specialty biopharmaceutical company that

develops, manufactures and markets products to treat and prevent serious

human medical conditions.

Innovation and new product development for unmet medical needs

continue to drive CSL's growth.

The CSL Group of companies develops, manufactures and markets

pharmaceutical products of biological origin.

Headquartered in Melbourne, it includes CSL Bioplasma, CSL

Pharmaceutical and ZLB Behring incorporating ZLB Plasma Services.

With major facilities in Australia, Germany, Switzerland, the US

and Japan, CSL has over 7,000 employees working in 25 countries.

The company's products cover immunoglobulins to treat infections,

autoimmune diseases and for preventing haemolytic disease in the newborn;

plasma volume expanders to treat acute blood loss and severe burns and

clotting factors to treat bleeding disorders.

Other products include paediatric and adult vaccines, treatments

for infections and severe pain and products for skin disorders,

life-saving products derived from human plasma, pharmaceuticals and

diagnostics essential to health.

The CSL group operates globally through its Human Health

businesses, which includes the operations of ZLB Behring, CSL Bioplasma

and CSL Pharmaceutical, as well as its global new product development



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ML Repeats Buy On CSL After Vaccine Study


Sunday, October 09, 2005 7:47:11 PM ET

Dow Jones Newswires




0932 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch keeps Buy on CSL (CSL.AU) after successful trials of HPV cancer vaccine. Notes Merck on track to submit approval application to FDA by end of year, expects vaccine to be given priority review status, with an approval timeframe of around 6 months. Says CSL positioned to secure significant royalties following commercialization of vaccine, intellectual property should be valued at between $4.61 -$7.29 a share. Targets CSL at A$45, stock latest A$37.46.





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Still More Bullishness Left For CSL

October 21 2005 - Australasian Investment Review ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ (AIR)


When it comes to CSL (CSL), healthcare analysts at Smith Barney Citigroup are hard to beat in bullishness, and perseverance.


According to the analystsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ latest assessments, peak market cycle IVIG pricing should at least be another year away, "probably longer". This, it goes without saying, further feeds the expertsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ view on CSL.


SB Citigroup analysts attended the annual American Association of Blood Banks (AABB) conference and report industry feedback suggests that circa 30 new source plasma centres could open in the next 12-18mths.


The net effect of this could be average growth of 3-4% pa in collections to CY08, which contrasts with circa 26% in US supply cuts over the past 2 years.



The analysts add their current assessment suggests that even with this new supply, the IVIG market will not return to equilibrium with demand for at least 12 months ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ this on the assumption that demand for IVIG sustains at 5-7%.


The experts note the so-called 'plasma cycle' has proven to be the fundamental feature of earnings strength and demise for plasma manufacturers, and CSL is 85% exposed.


As far as Citigroup is concerned, you should Buy (Medium Risk) the stock. Twelve month target price is $43.93.


Aspect Huntley, earlier this week, raised its recommendation to Accumulate for the stock.


FN ArenaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s overview of ten leading stockbrokers and research houses shows seven Buys (including Aspect HuntleyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Accumulate), two Neutral recommendations and one Underweight (GSJBW).





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ABN AMRO Raises CSL Target To A$42.02


Sunday, October 23, 2005 8:02:31 PM ET

Dow Jones Newswires




0959 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO bumps up target price on CSL (CSL.AU) to A$42.02 from A$40.28 after positive outlook comments from rival Baxter and expectations for continued rises in IVIG prices. Raises IVIG price assumption to US$40/g from US$38 for FY07-09. CSL latest A$37.45. (LMF)





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Another benefit maybe for HPV vaccine....a study of 50 ductal breast cancer specimens found 48% were positive for the HPV subtypes 16 and 18 suggesting HPV may play a part in human breast cancer.

British Journal of Cancer 2005;93:946-48

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CSL downgraded to "equal weight"


Thursday, November 03, 2005 5:42:01 AM ET

Morgan Stanley


LONDON, November 3 (newratings.com) - Analyst Sean Laaman of Morgan Stanley downgrades CSL Ltd (ticker: CSJ) to "equal weight." The target price is set to A$36.45.


In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the companyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s share price has exceeded the target price. According to the analyst, an increase of $1 per gram ahead of the $42 per gram estimate for IVIG pricing is likely to increase CSLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s EBITDA by 1.8%.





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CSL Just Over Yr Away From Gardasil Income


Tuesday, December 06, 2005 8:47:35 PM ET

Dow Jones Newswires




1142 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Deutsche Bank keeps buy on CSL (CSL.AU) after licensee partner Merck seeks FDA approval for cervical cancer vaccine Gardasil. Broker says CSL set for A$10 million "milestone payment" from Merck on FDA approval, and royalties likely from FY07 after 2H06 product launch. Price target A$42.58 vs latest A$41.12, up 94 cents. Tips more revenue detail on Gardasil from Merck Dec. 15 briefing. (IGP)





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Gardasil Already Factored Into CSL Price-JPM


Tuesday, December 06, 2005 6:17:35 PM ET

Dow Jones Newswires




0904 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan says success of CSL's (CSL.AU) cervical cancer vaccine Gardisal already factored into share price. Notes stock is trading around an 8% premium to its valuation of A$37.47. Maintains Neutral rating. CSL closed up 1.7% at A$40.85 yesterday after Merck's FDA application for Gardasil. (SVM)





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