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IN REPLY TO A POST BY ADMIN1, Thu 22/01/04 08:56am   [READ POST]

created for DRUGGIST

Bargain float > then UP,Up,Up, Then Down Down Should be Top Blue Chip but somewhat tarnished now, Bottom drawer stock these days. Sigh > b http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif

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Bunyip

 

I think there are many opportunities in this stock, here is one example.

 

If you own stock and more than 1000, you should be writing covered calls, this stock is in a nice medium term uptrend and has been since August, trading in an steadily rising channel.

 

Additionally if you believe that the stock has long term merits and are prepared to buy more, increase your take and write a put or two as well.

 

I find this stock tends to react well with money flow and does not have too many false signals under this method.

 

Cheers

 

P.S. Please do not take this as being critical of your trading/investing style but it pains me to hear the term "bottom draw stock", I too used to say this, but learnt that it is far better to say analysis was wrong, or trend has ended and take profits/losses and move on.

 

There are always opportunities to re-enter trends further in the future, and as traders, investors we will never be 100% right all the time, even Buffet made and still does make mistakes.

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY moneyman888, Thu 22/01/04 07:31pm   [READ POST]

Bunyip

I think there are many opportunities in this stock, here is one example.

If you own stock and more than 1000, you should be writing covered calls, this stock is in a nice medium term uptrend and has been since August, trading in an steadily rising channel.

Additionally if you believe that the stock has long term merits and are prepared to buy more, increase your take and write a put or two as well.

I find this stock tends to react well with money flow and does not have too many false signals under this method.

Cheers

P.S. Please do not take this as being critical of your trading/investing style but it pains me to hear the term "bottom draw stock", I too used to say this, but learnt that it is far better to say analysis was wrong, or trend has ended and take profits/losses and move on.

There are always opportunities to re-enter trends further in the future, and as traders, investors we will never be 100% right all the time, even Buffet made and still does make mistakes.

Hi "mm", You're right of course. Inclined to be more lazy these days. What I sold virtually means what's left is riding free. Wish I had more of em. Ciao > b. http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/rolleyes.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...

CSL shorting opportunity exists, impending reversal with bearish divergance between money-flow and security price noticible over the last 12 trading periods.

 

Price approaching key resistance last tested on 18/12.

 

Price targets of 17.75 - 17.27.

 

Better do your own research!!!

 

Cheers

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How wrong was I...oops!!!

 

Got stopped out early, thankfully.

 

Interesting to see where it goes from here, stock is stongly overbought yet stock has broken through resistance/support of Dec 2003 and seems destined for 21$ish.

 

Maybe a straddle is in order in case it reverses!!!!

 

What do you think Brantley, you appear to have good options knowledge.

 

Cheers

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  • 3 months later...

Extract - Health Budget 2004-2005

 

' ... Changes to purchasing arrangements for diagnostic products

 

Diagnostic products are used for determining the blood type and antibody status for blood transfusions. These products are currently supplied under the National Blood Agreement via a contract with CSL Limited, which provides them free of charge to end users in both public and private laboratories and research and teaching institutions.

 

In 2004 Australian Health Ministers approved a move to a competitive market for the supply of these diagnostic products from 1 July 2005. As a result of this decision, net savings of $5.3 million to the Australian Government over three years are expected.

 

The subsidy arrangements for public sector users will continue through payments under the National Blood Agreement. The agreement requires the Australian, state and territory governments to contribute, respectively, 63 per cent and 37 per cent of the cost of the new arrangements. ... '

 

http://www.health.gov.au/budget2004/hbudget/hfact2.htm

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anaemic supply lets CSL tap rich vein

By Liam Walsh

August 3, 2004

 

BLOOD products group CSL's shares shot up further yesterday on optimism about a supply shortfall in the US.

 

Speculation of savings from a recent acquisition have also boosted Melbourne-based CSL, which develops and markets products ranging from vaccines to immune-system boosters.

 

Prices in the US for one of the CSL's key goods ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), a blood-based product that boosts the immune system ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ are tipped to climb back after a recent glut.

 

CSL's shares yesterday rose 78ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢, or 3.1 per cent, to $26.27. The stock, which hit a low last year of $11.57, has spiked almost 15 per cent in a week.

 

Turnover last week topped 1 million shares on some days. But yesterday it reached about 712,000, raising the possibility investors were holding on to stock.

 

CSL in February linked a strengthening Australian dollar and weak blood-plasma markets to a drop in net profit for the six months to December last year by $14.5 million to $25.4 million.

 

But Citigroup Smith Barney, in a research note issued Friday, said: "The plasma tide has turned and delivered CSL a 10 per cent price increase to US IVIG prices."

 

The American Red Cross had also dumped contracts with some group purchasing organisations, it said.

 

Citigroup said it understood that CSL, with large inventories available, would take up some of the slack for IVIG goods.

 

"These developments have not occurred in isolation, they reflect a tightening of supply in the US," Citigroup said.

 

"Whilst there are brand shortages at this point, there is a view that wider shortages will occur by Christmas," it said.

 

"There is also the prospect of further industry consolidation ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ with a strong chance that American Red Cross and venture capital will acquire Bayer plasma," it said.

 

Goldman Sachs JBWere said industry contacts overseas had spoken of dropping inventory levels.

 

"(They said) IVIG prices have stabilised and are starting to go up," Goldman Sachs JBWere's Patrick Crabb said.

 

Mr Crabb also said the potential for industry consolidation was creating hope in the market for a better environment in which CSL could operate.

 

Intersuisse research manager Peter Russell said the possible tightening of supply was behind share price rises.

 

"All analysts are positive and there's a strong group of analysts . . . saying buy," he said.

 

Deutsche Bank last week also upgraded its price target to $28 from $24 and raised its estimate of earnings a share for fiscal 2005 by 12 per cent.

 

This was linked to CSL's acquisition and integration of global blood-products business Aventis Behring.

 

DB analysts David Low and Alex McGee said significant staff cuts should enable CSL to "easily meet" its target of at least $100 million in cost savings from the acquisition.

 

"CSL should trade at premium to the market as it is operating at near the low point in the pricing cycle," they said.

 

"The greatest risk to our target is integration delays or additional costs."

 

Citigroup said risks included possible changes in supply and demand in the blood-plasma market and regulatory hurdles.

 

CSL , which has manufacturing facilities in Australia, Europe and the US, declined to comment.

 

Its full results are due on August 19.

 

from:

 

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_pa...5E14320,00.html

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