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I may look further, but my initial reaction when I see this headline is to think along the lines of Socialising losses and privatising profits

 

 

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/cannon...20200916-p55w2t

Cannon-Brookes and Musk keen for big battery number two

The two billionaires chatted overnight, but Mike Cannon-Brookes says the Morrison government must clearly set out the rules of engagement before he backs a new investment.

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When you're a famous, rich 'dude', you aren't in 'wealth creation' mode AKA risk taking mode: So it's about backing only winners.

If you watch Shark Tank/Dragons Den, you'll see the 'entrepreneurs' have very little 'entrepreneur' about them: They only want to back winners, those with definite runs on the board ie. know their numbers, show growth, no terrible debt numbers or shady shareholders etc etc.

So what we have is a billionaire (who appears to have made his money in a land grab on the internet: It's just sour grapes from me) who's upset he's 'out of the loop' in regards to the government policy, and who is so biased with his 'high tech' background that he believes 'new' is the answer to all our problems.

The energy sector is in such a mess in Australia because of two reasons:A: Other than the second reason, there is no co-ordinated objectiveB: Provide guaranteed profit to those that bough the power grid (it's in the contract, they are guaranteed a profit: Look it up, it's unbelievable)

So then we have the green lobby who want renewables.... who don't realise they are being manipulated by big business to encourage the government to subsidize these big businesses if they do green stuff: But the reality is it's a total failure: Wind generators that will never offset the energy used to build them... terrible environmental impacts in far away nations to build the batteries for 'green' first world nations... solar panels that are now beginning to reach end of life in a seriously large number...... But no operation in Australia can recycle them.....

On and on it goes. It's a total cluster #$%

 

But it's all just total BS, because in the end, you hear countries around the world setting up 10 coal generators, or 30 or 50... or India, setting up 400!!!

Why are we destroying our own industry here when we contribute 1% of total Co2 emissions??? Which incidentally is the food for plants... Nature achieves equilibrium... It's a total circus... You have big business in EU being paid to catch and dispose of CO2 emissions... how do they do it?? they pump it into their green houses to speed up crop growth.

LOL they're getting paid to increase private profits!!!!! They are taking excessive taxes from working families to give to billion $$$ corps who pay no tax, to increase their profits. This is simply unbelievable. But it's happening, right now, all the info and evidence is right there for the taking and analysing: But the public are too focused on their own BS to look beyond their front gate.

 

Like I say, the whole thing is a jumbled mess, with no direction: Other than big business walking away with billions and billions of taxpayer dollars.

Pumped hydro... never heard anything so stupid in my life: Let's not only waste power pushing water up hill: Let's also tie up water, the ultimate resource... WTF, who are these idiots that believe this stuff and then put their names to it. There can only be ONE reason anyone could honestly lobby for this stuff... $$$$$$$$$

 

It's idiocy at it's finest. Having to generate 10kw, to pump water, to return 7kw....

You're down 3kw for no reason: For no bloody reason... so where's the benefit?

of course the company that was paid to pump the water, and then gets to sell it.

Good for the consumer?Good for industry?Good for jobs??

Total and utter BS.

 

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It's idiocy at it's finest. Having to generate 10kw, to pump water, to return 7kw....

You're down 3kw for no reason: For no bloody reason... so where's the benefit?

of course the company that was paid to pump the water, and then gets to sell it.

Good for the consumer?Good for industry?Good for jobs??

Total and utter BS.

The fact that it BS doesn't seem to matter anymore.

It makes me wonder if the younger generation have been dumbed down so much that they can't do basic maths anymore.

If you point out the BS and obvious profit scamming by big business you inevitably get called a climate change denier.

Seems there's more currency in virtue signalling than any common sense reality.

 

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It makes me wonder if the younger generation have been dumbed down so much that they can't do basic maths anymore.

If you point out the BS and obvious profit scamming by big business you inevitably get called a climate change denier.

Seems there's more currency in virtue signalling than any common sense reality.

 

They actually don't know anything. Literally.

One of the big hardware/nursery chains in USA couldn't work out why the millenials weren't spending with them: So they hired a consultancy to study it for them.

They found that many millenials had trouble with hardware related tasks and had all but given up on plants. Hence they simply didn't frequent there.

Ok, so why the trouble with plants: Of course many are working 3 or 4 jobs, live in cramped appartments or condo's so didn't have either time or room for gardening.... Ok, dig a bit deeper, what was the bad experience with plants???

A huge percentage had bought plants and they all died...

Keep digging... did you water them? Fertilize them? Keep bugs away for them???

Why did they die??? Turns out they tried to grow their plants indoors: They had no concept of photosynthesis!!!!

OMG. This is literally what they found.

So they started offering free, night courses on plant care, and the millenials trickled back...

As a business owner, I rarely talk social topics, I mainly talk with other business owners: The big gripe with youngens (ie under 40) is they are scared to do anything: scared to try anything. the literally can only do what school taught them: Sit there and read from a screen. They have no problem solving skills: Nada, none.

I commonly hear that it's useless trying to hire someone with the skills you need, because even if they're 'qualified' in something, they don't know it. they've passed a competency course, but they don't know the topic. I've even heard of big multinationals hiring uni grads, and tying them into 5 year contracts, because for the first 3, they are actually unproductive and a drag on the business until they get real skills and knowledge: then in years 4 and 5 they may start to earn the company profit.

And well, how the hell does small business afford to have unproductive staff for 3 years?? they can't. Hence the impossible job market ie. 13 people on welfare for every available job.

It's a shocking, shocking world we live in: It's never been more important to have parents that spend time with their kids and teach them the world: Because our schools sure as hell aren't: it's gotten that bad, I know multimillionaire business owners that will only hire kids who worked in their parents business: If their not from a small business family, they are unemployable in these guys eyes.

It's that bad out there.

I watch in horror as people take part in protests, they have no idea of the core mission of that group: A major one is sweeping the globe over the last 6 months: The core goal is to dismantle the western family unit, and return to a tribal, shared ownership economic system. Outrageous. Yet millions are out there marching, not aware of what the group their working for want.

SMH

Just protect your family.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Great book Nipper, well worth a read for anyone seeking resilience to this crazy world

Was interested in a comment made in the threads below

 

If you point out the BS and obvious profit scamming by big business you inevitably get called a climate change denier.

I would have thought it more likely you get called a leftie, greenie bum or something like that.... climate change deniers are often complicit in

profit scamming. But whatever side of the fence you sit, we would all prefer to have money going on projects that provide a truthful benefit to slowing down climate change in an economic way. That is always going to be rorted to some degree, but we cant let this stop trying to make changes to how we procure energy. There is plenty of money to be made by making the changes needed, the economy does not have to stall.... just change its focus.

Economies would flourish if we don't have to deal with natural disasters constantly, my thoughts are with my friends in California dealing with a terrible situation at the moment.

 

One thing for sure re the energy sector is we are running out of time...... 2.5 m of sea level rise is already locked in, that takes out quite a few of my favourite places. Earth scientists have been ignored for far too many decades now.... lets hope that most investors can try to help influence a path to where our energy needs are met, without inflaming the dire repercussions that are to some degree already locked in.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-10...-years/12705230

 

 

 

 

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  • 11 months later...

Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal. But there isn’t enough to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before winter arrives in the northern hemisphere. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters move to keep more for themselves. And while the crisis is afflicting Europe right now, soon it may be a problem for the whole world. —David E. Rovella

 

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from bloomberg.

 

LNG on the record price........ :P

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20211003-p58wq4

 

The global energy crisis is intensifying, hammering the shares of companies that consume a lot of power and sending the stocks of those that produce it soaring.

 

Economic recovery from the pandemic has boosted demand for gas and coal, but their supplies have not been able to keep up.

 

With the Northern Hemisphere winter on the horizon and China -- the world’s biggest electricity user -- ordering state-owned energy firms to secure supplies at all costs, investors are in a race to pick the winners and losers.

 

A key measure of international energy producers, led by names including Cabot Oil & Gas and ConocoPhillips, has rallied almost 10 per cent over the past month. Utilities stocks have gone into reverse, wiping out this year’s gains, with materials companies joining them among the biggest laggards on the MSCI World Index.

 

“The energy crisis can exist for the next several years. I think a super cycle in energy has started and will continue for several years,” said Sumeet Rohra, a fund manager at Smartsun Capital in Singapore. “Energy stocks are very well poised to generate big returns.”

 

China’s factory sector contracted in September for the first time since the pandemic began, thanks to power cuts that have affected regions making up more than two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product.

 

The energy crunch has also reportedly halted production at suppliers of global tech giants such as Apple and Tesla.

 

Meanwhile, European inventories of natural gas are running low as economies come out of the pandemic lockdown and the White House has expressed concern about the jump in oil prices.

 

Here is a guide to how the crisis is playing out in equities market:

 

Energy producers

Companies that produce gas, oil and coal are set to continue benefiting as the northern winter approaches and demand rises.

 

Royal Dutch Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni SpA, and BP are among big European names that may rally further.

 

In Asia, traders have their eyes on companies including Woodside Petroleum, Petronas Gas, Inpex, Oil and Natural Gas and Reliance Industries.

 

“It is not just about a short term supply-demand imbalance,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office.

 

“The energy crunch is very concerning as it leads to the worst case scenario for markets -- that of stagflation,” he said, referring to a situation in which economic growth stalls while inflation and unemployment rise.

 

If the current tightness in the gas market endures into next year, then Total could see 2022 earnings boosted by 18 per cent and Eni by 12 per cent, Goldman Sachs analysts including Lilia Peytavin wrote in a note last week.

 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Talon Custer said US exporters of liquefied natural gas, such as Cheniere Energy and Sempra Energy, appear well positioned in an LNG market that should stay extremely tight through the winter.

 

Exxon Mobil said on September 30 that elevated gas prices will boost its third quarter profit by about $700 million.

 

A three-year-high in oil prices also helps Exxon, and should keep others such as Schlumberger, ConocoPhillips and Halliburton on the radar of traders.

 

In contrast, gas distributors such as China Gas Holdings, Hong Kong and China Gas, Kunlun Energy, and Indraprastha Gas may face margin pressure if they are not allowed to pass on rising input costs.

 

Amid surging prices of coal, key stocks to watch are Arch Resources and Peabody Energy in the US, Glencore in Europe, and China Shenhua Energy, China Coal Energy, Adaro Energy Tbk, Whitehaven Coal as well as Coal India in Asia.

 

Materials and metals

While rising power prices hurt all users, it is particularly acute for energy-intensive materials and metal companies.

 

In Asia, these stocks include Aluminum Corporation of China, Baoshan Iron & Steel, Angang Steel, China National Chemical Engineering and Zhejiang Longsheng Group.

 

European construction material maker Sika AG also fits the mould, as does steelmaker ArcelorMittal and cement producer Holcim. In the US, steel producer Nucor and paint maker Sherwin-Williams may be focus.

 

Bank of America analysts see input-cost headwinds for Indian cement makers such as UltraTech Cement, Shree Cement and companies in the paint sector.

 

Power utilities

Many government-backed electricity providers are likely to face margin pressure while those that are less regulated or independent have a better chance profiting from higher electricity prices.

 

Barclays’s analysts including Peter Crampton expect further strength in power prices to create winners in less heavily regulated northern Europe. They identified Electricite de France, Engie SA, Fortum Oyj and RWE AG.

 

The analysts expect significant earnings-per-share upgrades, particularly for EDF, and raised their 2021 and 2022 estimates by 82 per cent and 61 per cent, respectively.

 

The most visible signs of stock market distress so far have been in southern Europe’s heavily regulated utilities. Iberdrola SA and Endesa SA shares are both trading at their lowest levels in more than last year.

 

In Asia, potential losers include Korea Electric Power, Tokyo Electric Power and India’s NTPC. In the US, companies such as Southern Co, American Electric Power and Duke Energy Corp could face pressure.

 

Green stocks

Higher energy prices and efforts to cut carbon emissions are also flowing through into the share prices of renewable power and nuclear stocks.

 

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Laurent Douillet sees large nuclear and hydroelectricity companies as potential winners over those that rely on gas and coal.

 

Key stocks to monitor are Europe’s Scatec ASA, Azelio AB and Orsted A/S, North America’s First Solar and SolarEdge Technologies and Asia’s LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Sungrow Power Supply and Adani Green Energy.

 

“There hasn’t been a confluence of so many factors happening at the same time in energy and commodity markets since at least the 1980s,” said Robert Ryan, chief commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research.

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there is a graphic in one of those AFR articles showing energy prices in the last year. The trend of prices is undeniable, over the calendar year; UP UP and in some instances AWAY

Brent Crude .................... : Jan $US53, and now $US84 aBBbl

Henry Hub gas ................ ; Jan $US2.80 , now $US5.92 per mmBtu

Newcastle thermal coal ..... ; Jan A$85, now A$195 /tonne

Platts Japan/Korea Marker spot LNG contracts .....; Jan $US6, now US$34.47 per mmBtu.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The energy crisis keeps getting worse. Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, according to the International Energy Agency. “An acute shortage of natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products,” the IEA warned. —David E. Rovella

 

 

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from bloomberg , inflation will be jacked up big time imho.

 

 

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