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Well I have not posted since 16/7 at which time I cashed up and went on a holiday...so did I miss anything.. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif


Last few days I have been reading a few threads [it is good to catch up] - In fact when you read in one sitting a week of posts in some threads you really get to see the pyschology of trading...the doom on Monday..the happiness on Wednesday..and back to doom on Friday..and so on..interesting...and shows the uncertainty..


Must admit that when I read all the doom and gloom my trigger finger starts to get twitchy to buy...just as when I feel like locking in profits in the bloom of irrational exuberance..


I am relaxed atm...perhaps it is due to having a break or being cashed up...and I will definitely be watching for opportunties now that I have returned..


Further I see in one thread that I must now be considered old..having turned 43 on Wednesday..incidentally that will make it around 31 years since I bought my first shares as it was just after my 12th birthday...hells bells time flies...


This correction was expected and provided does not drop too far , is healthy..time as always will tell


There is alot of noise around the mkt atm...plenty of uncertainty and volatility...all of which is tradable..eg trade the bounces and if continue up pyramid..but if stall or fall..exit stage left fast.....be decisive [choosing not to buy is a decision]..focus on selective stocks..be wary but cool..carefully consider risk/reward..don`t overtrade.. and so on etc as mentioned previously


Well no doubt we are in for more interesting times and so be careful out there...Hmm..I see with some help from the Fed that for the week the DOW was up 0.4% , S&P up 1.4% and NASDAQ 1.3% ...


Ah enough rambling..time for me to start working again and carefully check the charts/news to get ready my watchlist no.1 for next week...


Happy Trading







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In reply to: spartz on Friday 10/08/07 12:06am

Sounds interesting spartz.

So where are you off to next?


The DAX has been on fire the last few years (outperformed the ASX200 big time). Those suits they were wearing mustve been nice ones ! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/lmaosmiley.gif

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Didn't notice the quality of the suits Nizar - just felt like a complete dag in my oldest t-shirt and jeans, but it made me wonder about appearances vs success. Amsterdam in a couple of weeks, then maybe Oslo in October and Dublin at the end of the year.


And Zaitech, good to see you back. Just last night I was wondering where you had got to as you usually have some pearls of wisdom at times like this. I had this dreadful thought that you were really old (which apparently you are at 43) and had carked it - I mean how would we ever know? Could you please add a line into your will so that your executor notifies us. Thanks.





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QUOTE (spartz @ Sunday 12/08/07 04:23am)

Hells bells spartz you missed your opportunity to ask to be included in my will..then you would know if I "carked it" http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif


My holidays were great..normally I take a laptop and still do some trading [a real Trader junkie] but this time round I resisted temptation to trade and so stayed cashed up..although I did peek in on the mkt everynow and then..


Now back I am going to be very very disciplined in trading [which I was before mid July anyway]..and am quite prepared to wait cashed up on sidelines until I see an opportunity...


Nevertheless I must admit the more doom & gloom I hear the more excited I become about, at the very least , a good-sized tradeable bounce...


Uncertainty brings volatility with the associated fear and greed...right now the fear is well and truly winning..especially as the mkt can still drop hard/fast..of course we should never underestimate greed [for lack of a better word] and cashed up traders coming in hard/fast in search of possible bargains or at least a strong bounce..


I intend to listen to the tape...tune out excessive noise..and focus on selective stocks/sectors..


As this has been by far the longest break in which I have not traded in many years I must be prepared for being out of sync..by that I mean stuffing up the timing of my initial trades eg buying for a bounce but seeing the stock stall or fall..If that is the case I just exit fast..assess what went wrong..and then move on..being in sync is vital for short-term trading..also important to be confident and decisive to whatever the mkt brings..


The great thing about trading for years is that you have made virtually every trading mistake there is..[i still reckon that not only have I made every mistake there is but have invented some as well http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/blink.gif ] and most importantly learnt from it...


One of my most stupid mistakes was made when I was buying and selling numerous shares with several buy and sell windows open..and just before a breakout I clicked and bought then quickly opened a sale window for the same share but put in the wrong sale price by mistake..In fact I put in my buy price and it was already passed it so I sold just as the breakout was going to take off...then I had to decide to buy at a higher price or wait as see if she would dip back down to breakout price..Anyway I bought higher and sure enough she went back down to breakout level...fortunately she did bounce and closed well..BUT that was 1 of 2 times in my trading that I was careless enough to put in the wrong price..and that is what irritated me..that it was pure sloppiness..


My most costly mistakes have been averaging down a loser [years ago] or not riding a winner long enough [last financial yr]...nevertheless I definitely learned from those mistakes..


As for now I am cashed up and watching, waiting , ready...


Happy Trading



ps If I ever get time I should do a "Stupid trading mistakes I have made [and how I learned from them] thread..."

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Looking forward to the Dow tonight - all important for sentiment - the Dow futures are currently up 66, and with a nice bullish divergence on the intraday price vs MACD Histogram chart.


See chart at:




This has EMAs, Bolly Bnds, candlesticks, MACD and ADX. Set the refresh time at the top right to 1 minute. Other indicators can be customised down the bottom of the page.


That's the best page for checking Dow futures that I've found. The CNN Money page is delayed, and often gets stuck in the traffic with no change for an hour or more. This Quotes.com page is much better.


The overall up or down figure is in the centre top of the chart.



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Yep - no real bounce yet, most of those in the green gapped up that way and now deciding direction.


CVI and ICP are still strong though - so yes there are always runners...





A technical question for both BSA and Zaitech since you are both strong in that area.


Price of Gold (USD) looks like it has worked itself into a possible inflection point that should break very soon - either way.


Given the current sentiment towards credit and subsequent spread problems with interest rates for inter-bank trading, one would think Gold is a logical winner.


Of course we know the way the market works these days, with hedge fund cowboys prepared to speculate on anything that moves - making anything fair game for profit taking, especially if books need to be balanced.


It is pretty obvious a move over $700 should see $1000 - but if it plays out, we will no doubt do some Xtreme whipsawing around that level, as TA breakout traders on margin or weak nerves are flushed (ala recent action in Oil price) as whe hit key reistsance.


So would be rather building a position in Gold futures (and maybe a few stocks) before that break so I only add to posiitons on the break.


Anyway, both of you must have had a sneak peak at Gold chart recently I suspect - what feeling did you get, if any to the likelihood of a break up/down?




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QUOTE (BSA @ Monday 13/08/07 12:05pm)

As you well know it is never going to be a truly convincing bounce at this stage of the game ol` buddy.. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif ..What I initially look for are tradeable bounces


After the way the DOW bounced off intraday low , Fed action and the fall we had on Friday a tradeable bounce was unsurprising...of course it will be interesting to see how she closes given the uncertainty atm as we have the competing tactics/emotions...some will want to lock in profits as do not want to chance it..whilst others will be wanting to let her ride or buy in case the ol`US can have a nice run tonight...if that is the case then Traders in the US wil also have to weigh risk/reward as they near close..


Yep NS tis going to be interesting in US tonight...and at this early stage looks for a bit of a run at least early on...


Happy Trading


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In reply to: neutron on Monday 13/08/07 01:33pm

Hi N,


As far as gold goes I follow the HUI(gold bugs index) which is a pretty good mirror of POG.

Like POG it has been basically sideways for a year and a half, so any break from resistance would let the bulls loose in the paddock. I have been expecting it to break for sometime, but it has been reluctant. With current market upheavals my money would be an upward break,...but the market rarely listens to me http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


Yes Z any bounce currently unlikely to have legs, what with sentiment in the toilet and all,....will need time(weeks?) to consolidate/hold its ground to instill confidence to any large degree,.....of course it could always correct further http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/blink.gif



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