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All those into Gold shares, this, being Australia's premier gold stock, should be on your radar. Telfer coming on this year, and they move nicely for short-medium term trading.


Recently they have broken above a short term (2 mths) ascending triangle, and are close to breaking above a longer term extremely mildly downtrending line and with the gold price threatening it's 425 highs, this one offers good trading prospects.



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  • 2 months later...

Ive held NCM the last couple of months, up 13% so far.....


The last 8 months NCM has been tested the $13 area 6 times if not more....now it has broken to a new high of $13.78, $13 is now strong support for the next advance and with gold closing at US395 (up 6) overnight we will see NCM over $14 come monday.


the market is expecting the company to announce the Tefler mine operational anytime now, along with takeover speculation http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/blink.gif

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Newcrest, Oxiana May Be Targets as Gold Output Drops (Update2)


July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's biggest gold producer, and Oxiana Ltd. may get takeover offers as gold companies worldwide combine to shore up reserves.


``We've had an increase in approaches by the investment banking community in the last few months,'' Owen Hegarty, 54, chief executive officer of Melbourne-based Oxiana, Australia's second-largest gold miner by market value, said in an interview. ``That makes me think there is more consolidation to come.''


Money spent or bid on mergers and acquisitions in the gold industry rose 70 percent to $7.3 billion this year from a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Global spending on metals exploration slumped to a 10-year low in 2002, increasing the appeal of acquisitions as a means to expand.


Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., the world's No. 1 and No. 3 gold producers, are among potential buyers, said Gary Armor, a fund manager at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.


``In order to keep growing they need to make acquisitions, just because they can't find enough gold in the ground,'' said Armor, who helps manage A$4 billion ($2.85 billion), including Newcrest stocks. ``I'd expect consolidation to continue.''


Acquisitions may be discussed when Newmont, Newcrest and other miners meet investors and analysts at the annual Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia, starting today. The conference ends Wednesday.


Gold Production


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In the latest BRW magazine there is an excellant article on NCM, they are saying NCM could get Taken Over this yr for anywhere from $26.50 up to even $34/share.


Check it out.


Saying either ANGLO GOLD





OR NEWMONT are potential buyers.


It says NCM is relatively cheap (PE of 38)

I guess they mean cheap for the yrs to come.

They say once TEFLER comes on line NCM will be a sitting duck especially with an open share registry.


And the restructuring of its hedge book will help transparancy (good for TO)




Goes on to say NEWMONT could offer $26.50/share before NCM dilutes its EPS, and $30-$34 before it dilutes its ne present value.


Which things anything like this is possible in the next 1-2yrs $26?



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  • 5 weeks later...

continues to perform well.. im looking for $20+ within 6 mths


Harmony Gold's audacious $11 billion bid for South African rival Gold Fields had put Newcrest Mining back in the spotlight as a potential takeover target, analysts said.


Newcrest shares soared over $16 in early trading yesterday as investors digested the implications of the Harmony bid before lower gold prices pulled the stock to $15.45, a loss of 27c.


However, the shares remain within range of their 17-year high of $16.13, reached early last week. Even at such high levels, analysts said Newcrest continued to trade at a big discount to its overseas rivals despite having some of the best quality assets and growth opportunities in the world.


Fat Prophets analyst Grant Craighead said those advantages meant Newcrest would face even more scrutiny from cashed-up majors such as Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Canadian miners Barrick Gold and Placer Dome.


"There's no doubt that is likely [because] they have such a large amount of resources and reserves and are the only Australian company in that position," Mr Craighead said.




"As soon as the development risk and operating parameters are clear at Telfer, I think the company will be in play."


Already the world's No.6 producer, Harmony launched a hostile offer for the world No.3 late on Monday. If successful, the combined company would topple Newmont from the top of the gold rankings with annual output of 7.5 million ounces.


Despite doubts over whether Harmony's bid would succeed, analysts said the move showed that consolidation of the gold sector was accelerating, driven by the need of the big international miners to replace reserves and ramp up production.


"This is yet another sign that global consolidation hasn't stopped," Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Michael Sliffirski said in a research note.


It also highlighted the standing of Newcrest, Australia's biggest homegrown producer with output of 900,000 ounces a year, as one of the world's last remaining quality targets, he said.


The $1.2 billion redevelopment of Telfer in Western Australia's eastern Pilbara is expected to double Newcrest's output to more than 1.6 million ounces a year by next year.


The mine is forecast to produce 800,000 ounces of gold and 28,000 tonnes of copper annually for at least 24 years, starting from next month.


RBC Capital Markets analyst Geoff Breen said the big miners' need to constantly replace production made a fresh wave of takeovers of companies such as Newcrest likely. "All of a sudden you have a couple of companies in play and people think they have to move again," he said.


The West Australian



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  • 4 weeks later...

In reply to: monty1 on Friday 12/11/04 03:34pm

Not sure exactly but its in a strong uptrend on the back of gold etc.


Telfer must be close to on line and there is always the take-over talk but that is only talk.


I am expecting it to shoot for the 20 mark with telfer operational.

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