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theflasherman

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W: Nothing more sure--IMHO--wasnt long ago we were there. (Christmas just a guess)

 

Why--or how will it come about?

 

Because the US has NO ALTERNATIVE to Zero or sub Zero effective interest rates

 

Whilst the RB has little chance of holding our rates this low for that much longer.

 

Thus the interest rate spread gets wider, not closer, USD lower AUD higher.

 

Dont worry about commodity influences, just concentrate on interest rate differentials.

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The AUD is leading the currency race/push against the once mighty greenback

 

Parity should be with us by Christmas--especially given the coming OZ interest rate rises promised.

 

Can be either very good news or very bad news for different classes of ASX stocks.

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Although I might agree with your fundamental analysis in the long term, I think they may be another contraction before reaching parity.

It is one of those strange conundrums that has seen brief rallies on the USD whenever theere has been bad econommic news from the US.

Its because of the poorly named "flight to quality" syndrome. If things really start to go pear shaped in the US (say they can't finance the deficit, or default on loans , or the new wave of ARM house loans causes another banking crisis), the US dollars will flood back to their home, and the AUD will suffer because of it. Its only after that washout when the USD is found to be the worthless dog that it is, that the AUD will continue its march to parity and beyond.

 

Mick

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This could be a nice place to have a bit of a retrace, poked its head above the October highs and now looking a little weak.

Bit of a 5 wave up since the wedge pattern May/June.

 

Last couple of days topping,double top look and feel. bearish Macd.. have I convinced you yet LOL

 

Nobody else watching this thread so I'll keep chatting to myself

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Which gear didya miss?? (sort em out---they're all in the same box)!

 

Agreed totally, though probably its more a case of the USD having temporarily bottomed.

 

Could present some great opportunities to re enter some ASX commodity stocks, this IMO

depends entirely on how far/how fast the two currencies reverse.

 

Yellow lines supports?

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Flower,

 

Because you had a "?" after your supports comment, I'll take the liberty of expressing an opinion on support levels.

 

I only consider a level to be a true support/resistance if it has acted as a pivot and terminated a swing in price. Even then I think of it as minor support/resistance unless it has acted as a major turning point

Once a price level has acted both a level of support and at another time a level of resistance I consider it to have confirmed as a significant level and therefore likely to have some influence on price activity each time through that similar level.

 

Chart of AUD weekly showing the red box zones as having confirmed their significance and likelyhood to influence price into the future.

single yellow lines have been pivots but not as important as confirmed price levels.

 

Cheers , Mistagear

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