AUD

[Vilmac]

In reply to: kahuna1 on Monday 08/10/07 09:31am

K1,

 

Agree with your ramble. Great stuff. One caveat though. China is a bully . Do you really think that China will pay one penny more for its imports than it has to?? My feeling is that China will realise, sooner than later, what a powerfull position it holds in world trade and will mercilessly drive down the cost of commodities. India will fall in with China and our so called golden age will last for only a few years - if we get to it. God forbid, but Australian business will have to get off their collective ar*es and do some value adding to our raw materials and even start manufacturing!!

 

[flower]

QUOTE (Vilmac @ Monday 08/10/07 12:06pm)

Gold in AUD near its all time high--Oz gold producers shares crashing---work that out!!!

[dandyjac]

In reply to: flower on Monday 06/10/08 03:20pm

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif I think people have over looked the gold price when it is converted back to Oz Dollars. Kitco 8 hour spot price is $1078.14 AUD per Ounce

Pretty good price I think.

Our gold miners S/P don't reflect that.

It sucksssssssssssssssssssssssss. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/grrr.gif

 

[flower]

In reply to: dandyjac on Monday 06/10/08 06:22pm

D: We have a major financial crisis on our hands, and somebody is making a fortune out of manipulating the currency market---IMHO.

 

The USD should be PLUMMETING but its RISING

 

The consequences are that Gold in USD is PLUMMETING but in AUD its RISING

 

The same could be said of the whole Commodity Index

Obviously raw commodity demand is weaker, but it hasnt expired

In normal crisis curcumstances the market rushes into hard stuff (Commodities)

Especially Gold in USD

 

Expect some fireworks when people wake up to whats happening currency wise

 

 

 

 

[triage]

In reply to: flower on Monday 06/10/08 06:56pm

f

 

The attached article by Brad Setser passes on the suggestion that the USD is being squeezed upwards due to the US banks seizing up any lending to European banks. It seems to me that Mr Setser sees this as very much a temporary situation but is undecided what happens next. If this is a key but passing factor in where the USD sits then the collapse of gold and oil and other commodities, and of the AUD, is therefore a result of a temporary distortion rather than a structural collapse as some are calling.

 

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/04/the...does/#more-3837

[flower]

Blimey--is another 1% rate drop already factored in????

[bvbfan]

In reply to: flower on Tuesday 02/12/08 12:59am

I'm looking for 125bp cut.

 

Would like to see 150-175bp cut now that NBER declared the recession in the US

[wren]

May be worth keeping an eye on the little Aussie battler.So far,hanging in there.At present don't see any technical reason why the trendline support won't continue.This would change with a close below 62.5 in the next few days.

[flower]

Think youre out of luck there. Apparantly yesterdays publication of the RB's

last meeting gave the impression that KRudds injection of funds would be

sufficient,

 

IMHO coupled with that report add on the increasing demand from China, and the scene

is set for the next rate move being upward, but not for some time.

[veeone]

Anyone follow Colin Twiggs..... His latest is

 

Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar is headed for another test of resistance at $0.6550. Breakout would offer a target of $0.6850, while reversal would test $0.6300. The primary trend is down and failure of $0.6300 would test primary support at $0.60. In the long term, failure of $0.60 would target the 2001 lows between $0.48 and $0.50.

 

The Australian dollar has been in a large descending triangle against the yen, but now threatens an upward breakout. The pattern is normally bearish and upward breakouts should be treated with caution. A rise above 68 would confirm. Reversal below 55, on the other hand would warn of another down-swing, with a target of 42; calculated as 55 - ( 68 - 55 ).