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theflasherman

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Thanks for your view Kahuna, most of the forex stuff tends to be TA based.

 

My understanding is that the USD downtrend is indeed mature and we must be alert to signs of a new trend.

 

Of course these things tend to happen when we have given up all hope and a sharp spike down in the USD index could be expected in this stage of the cycle.

 

Just had a very nice move down in the EURUSD, moves are so much cleaner when our American friends are still asleep.

 

Let's see if 1.2900 can hold - could all in turn around again tonight on the Durable Orders, either way, should be a good session.

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Again we are right above a lot of major support levels for majors against the USD, courtesy of Friday's NFP's.

 

As has been discussed here previously, USD downtrend must be considered mature and we should be alert to confirmation of major tops.

 

Reversal's of longterm trends don't come along very often (obviously) so they provide unique opportunities.

 

It will also be interesting to see how the Asian currencies hold onto their recent gains against non-USD majors.

 

 

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Last night saw the long term trend line broken for EURUSD pair.

 

Forex markets are cruel and one last attempt at pushing the USD under water must be considered, however illogical it may seem.

 

If the majors do fall hard under the weight of the USD over the next few days (very likely now) it means GOLD must decouple from the USD, otherwise we could see GOLD also break its LT uptrend (USD).

 

 

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Gold in $AU has been range trading for years. If gold does decouple from the $US then I expect fireworks in the aussie goldies, they have really been hammered recently. I am not so sure that decoupling will occur though. Why would it? Gold went up because of: a) war and b) a falling $US. There is no more war and the $US is looking good again seeing interest rates are higher and yields in the US are becoming much more attractive against the risk of current US debt.

 

I expect gold to go down from here in all currencies and the aussie goldies will unfortunately face asx oblivion.

 

TheyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re on their last breath. Lest we forget.

 

All the best

LSM

 

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Thanks Lizard.

 

Agree LSM.

 

It will be very interesting seeing where the AUD, Gold and other majors are trading come Monday morning.

 

Though short-term speculators are of little consequence to the forex market, the same can't be said for larger, long term players.

 

Many of these must now decide whether its time to take profits and cover USD shorts or ride out the strength in the USD on the assumption USD weakness will re-assert.

 

Expect volatility and some nasty spikes, there would have been a lot of small trades entered on the USD long-side last night after the breakout. These may need to be punished first before the true direction is revealed.

 

 

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At least we will know either way very soon. All this indecision is sending me insane, too many mixed signals. The frustration is unbearable; maybe I should take a holiday and come back in a few weeks. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/weirdsmiley.gif

 

Rgds

LSM

 

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  • 5 weeks later...

QUOTE (neutron @ Thursday 12/05/05 02:30pm)

If the majors do fall hard under the weight of the USD over the next few days (very likely now) it means GOLD must decouple from the USD, otherwise we could see GOLD also break its LT uptrend (USD).

 

and decouple it has...

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

In reply to: crowman28 on Sunday 12/06/05 02:00am

oz $ certainly being given some stick of late.i read 72-73 should be it though.

 

with US economy doing ok and rates still in upward bias it likely puts the crashing dollar / gold thru the roof theorists out of the loop for now.

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