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AUD at "key" level looking at 8hr with trendlines . may form triangle with up move of TL support or could breakdown . Does anyone else follow FX at all , if not i might move this stuff as it seems pointless posting to yourself


.......................... bris


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In reply to: theflasherman on Friday 11/02/05 03:46am

It look as though the AU dollar again is having trouble breaking through the 80c US area. I'm actually looking at placing money into Chinese investments. There is a common theory that the Chinese dollar is about 40% undervalued and pressure will be put on them to revalue it.

Rupert Murdoch seems to believe that the revaluation is not a matter of if but when and interesting to note that he just spent up big on a nice little house in China.

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QUOTE (malcom @ Friday 22/04/05 12:51am)

Both Bush and Greenspan have urged China to revalue the Renminbi this week.


The more you push the Chinese the more they will dictate their own time-frame.


AUDUSD is having its first real pullback this week as I type, very nice move, easy to catch - thanks Alan.


Will be looking to pick it up again long the next few days.


EURUSD 1.2950-1.2980 could be a level to look for consolidation => bounce.


USD long-term downtrend still intact.


Friday Fireworks to come...

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The EURUSD came back to the 1.2950 - 1.2980 area nicely allowing me to go long once again in yesterday's trading.


Durable Goods out tonight so have exited all USD trades and will look to re-enter 15-30 minutes after the number comes out.


Still holding EURJPY @ 137.40 with s.l. moved up today to 137.30 - target around 140.


The USD downtrend is still intact and this should be the direction of most trades. EURUSD below 1.2900ish could put the downtrend on notice.


Unlikely that this would happen but sure would throw up some potential big moves if it did.

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Since my last post 6 months ago when the AUD was at 0.7500 my own view has changed somewhat.


Still believe the USD will be in downtrend long term. Budget and trade problems getting worse if anything.


Since then also we have seen US rates raised several times, but since in reality they are at such low levels anyhow don't expect it to save the US dollar.


What has changed is Australia. Our rates after the first rise in a very long time seem to me to be on hold for a while. This in the face or rising US rates will not do a lot for the ozzie.


Short term, this year the Australian trade account deficut will remain wide but possibly could narrow slightly from some higher commodity exports. On the neagtive side almost wiping out any gain will be higher levels cost of imports especially on the Fuel and oil side. Also added to this will be the increased cost of servicing our foreign debt levels.


For these last two reasons I no longer am of the view we will see AUD/USD higher looking forward into 2007/08. Our trade deficut remains at a worrying level even making the US look good. Of just as much concern is the level of foreign debt and with a 14.8% increase last year alone it has me extremely concerned both from the cost of servicing it let alone the actual number. This year will see it grow probably at around a 10% level making it 25% in two years.


With this in mind and despite seeing the US dollar fall into the abyiss ... I suspect at some stage looking forward we are going to see the ozzie dragged along and for almost the same reasons. Our federal goverment is in surplus but thats about the only positive I am able to glean from the whole picture looking extremely long term.


Our current account and trade numbers are shocking, but would have been even more so if we hadn't seen some massive rises in prices received from the metals and coaling industry. My concern would be when it comes around next year to see what prices we get for coal and iron ore if they should fall off in a dramatic way the hole in the trade situation could become a very big focus of financial markets.


Who knows, just a very long term view. Obviously changed from the last one at least for the ozzie. Short term 2005, maybe we do go higher but I feel it will be short lived unless the US dollar really takes a hit in the order of 20% or more in the next 12 months.

Little bit hard to see that happening ... especially with the US Fed raising at every chance it gets.



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