AUD

[mullokintyre]

The AUD jumped 0.5% after lower unemployment stats were released.

From ABC NEWS

 

Australia's unemployment rate edged down for the second consecutive month to end 2019 at 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since March last year.

 

Key points:

Solid growth in part-time work drove the unemployment rate down to 5.1 per cent in December

The ranks of the unemployed fell by 13,000 to just below 700,000

The result is likely to ease the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at its February meeting

The improvement was driven by a solid gain of almost 29,000 jobs over December, however this was entirely due to part-time opportunities.

 

Full time employment fell by 300 jobs over the month.

 

Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman noted full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) remained below the average annual growth over the past 20 years while part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth

 

"While there has been stronger growth in part-time employment over the past year, the underemployment rate is still where it was last December, at 8.3 per cent," said Mr Hockman.

 

A steady participation rate and the new jobs were enough to thin the ranks of the unemployment below 700,000 for the first time in almost a year.

 

Don't know why anyone takes notice of these stats.

About as reliable as my first car, and old Austin A40.

 

Mick

[mullokintyre]

AUD heading down again, getting close to breaking into the 67 handle.

The other commodity currencies such as Brazillian real and Canadian loonie have also fallen, so presume it is an expectation of slowing trade.

Perhaps bought on by the Chinese Virus, less Tourism in particular.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Thanks mainly to the coronavirus panic, AUD still heading southward and just keeping its head above the 66 handle.

Have no idea how much lower it can go, but at some point it will become self fulfilling and the AUD drops because people want out regardless of fundamentals.

Should recover a bit once the virus panic dies down, but the trend has been heading down for while now..

Surprised that gold stocks have not gone higher given the lower dollar and higher tension due to the coronavirus.

Mick

[mullokintyre]

Aud sitting at .6629

This is a level not seen since early 2009.

Nothing on the horizon to make one think the direction will change any time soon.

Mick

[nipper]

sitting at .6629

..for BHP and CSL dividends ðŸÃ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“ÂÂÂ

[mullokintyre]

struggling to stay above the 66 level.

This could turn nasty if people decide they just want out.

Even if the RBA cut rates again (no guarantee), it will be only 25 bp, hardly something to affect incomes.

It is all about sentiment.

So often it is a case of panic selling.

Bring it on.

Mick

[nipper]

And closed below. 0.6598 I saw.

 

Poor employment numbers (the canary!) and a quasi-shutdown looming with this virus. So, what do we have? Gold up, flight to safety, all that.

 

Still playing out.

[mullokintyre]

And now down to .6485

Normally when you see the AUD falling like that you must start to incorporate inflationary trends as the billions of dollars of overseas junk we buy becomes more expensive.

But thse are not normal times.

Most pundits (including the currency traders are expecting a rate cut this month with more to floow.

Tough if you are/were planning an overseas holiday.

Mick

[Pendragon]

What I do not understand is the "value" in the American dollar.

How can it have value if they are printing it like toilet paper????

[mullokintyre]

Most countries are printing their currency like toilet paper.

And they have negative interest rates. The US has , for the moment, a small positive rate.

And besides, if the USD was not the currency of trade, what would it be replaced with?

The yuan /renmimbi? Not likely in this climate. The yen , euro, uk pound?

None of them are great contenders, and not well trusted.

Perhaps the swiss frank could be the one.

Mick