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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Thursday 22/12/05 08:41am

ian what were those same long dated contracts showing 1yr 2yr and 3yrs ago??


i defer to your knowledge in the oil patch without question but on these oppies it is a moving feast that could shift south IF supply of crude and refinery capacity catch up.


ps. i happen to think POO will hold up well above the Aegis numbers.

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In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 22/12/05 10:01pm





try this and click on the month req'd on the left then select how long ago you want by clicking 'historical'




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In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 22/12/05 10:01pm



This is the big picture. The world needs 82 million barrels a day, more or less.


An average oil field declines in production by about 3% a year.


The world's main fields tended to be found in the 1960s and 1970s. As far as elephants go, the 1980s werent good, and the 1990s were a disaster.


In addition, as China and India industrialise, their consumption is going up by about a million barrels a day, each.


I dont see any great new provinces being opened up - Mauritania is going to be lucky to do a million barrels a day, for example, and building a couple of multi-million barrel a day refineries is pretty hard to hide.


Finally, OPEC appears to be happy with a USD40-50 basket price, which means USD50-60 WTI, as it's a sweeter, lighter, more popular crude than the OPEC basket.


Ian Whitchurch


PS Looking for old Hotcopper posts on oil futures prices.



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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Friday 30/12/05 12:35pm

hi ian


i was just making a point that long dated futures contracts have drastically changed over the last few years and it is possible (perhaps not likely given the fundamental situation) that long dated contracts drift lower if there is some signs of supply catching up.


i was until recently >70% energy stocks (for several years but sold most of my coal stocks a mth or two ago). i don't have your smarts to play too much with little oilers so i mostly have the bigger co's.


my dad keeps saying 'they are not making any more oil' seems a good thing to keep in the back of your mind.

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Friday 30/12/05 04:05pm

And a Ben Bernake speech from '04 ... note that he's now the Fed cheif.




"Throughout most of the 1990s, market prices of oil for delivery at dates up to six years in the future fluctuated around $20 per barrel, suggesting that traders expected oil prices to remain at about that level well into the future. Today, futures markets place the expected price of a barrel of oil in the long run closer to $39, a near doubling " is the money quote, although he does footnote that "I should acknowledge that oil futures prices have a less-than-stellar record in forecasting oil price developments, but they are probably the best guide that we have. Chinn, LeBlanc, and Coibion (2001) find that futures quotes are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, though not very accurate ones"


Ian Whitchurch

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