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In reply to: theflasherman on Saturday 01/10/05 05:24am

Same for oil, the bulls are not giving up the fight!! Price still holding above $65 for sure so far. Anyone care to guess where it will be in one months time?


I changed my view now, and reckon oil may reach new high very soon.

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QUOTE (crowman28 @ Saturday 01/10/05 09:36am)

Crowman I don't think your far from the mark as seasonally oil is due to top anytime soon. West Texas appears to be faultering around here and looks like it may turn down.If that be the case then it sure looks like a head and shoulders topping action to me....HOWEVER.... who the hell knows?

Iv'e seen this repeatedly on oil,copper,soybeans you name it over the last 12 months and they just slap the bears in the face.There are so many variables at work here it's just too complex to put your finger on one thing.

You've got the China factor,Hurrcane threats,supply problems,terrorism threats,transport contraints,not to mention the Hubert Peak oil thesis and so the list goes on and on and on.

It'd be brave man that would bet against the bulls at present,seasonality or no seasonality.

Just checkout the $CRB index.

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In reply to: theflasherman on Saturday 01/10/05 05:24am

This is a high risk game, and I don't know if I can take the stress if I have to wait till Christmas!




Its certainly not for the faint hearted....


Too risky in my books but could be profitable if you know what you are doing and have the steely nerves to pull it off.


Looks like US Nat gas prices pulled back a bit on Fridays close





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It seems to be coming to a head....


DJ Iranian President Threatens To Limit Oil Sales-Report                       

  DUBAI (AP)--Iran's president threatened to curtail oil sales if the country
is referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions on its nuclear
program, a newspaper reported Saturday.

  President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insisted in an interview with the Khaleej Times
that Iran's nuclear program was peaceful. But he warned the country would
protect its right to a nuclear fuel supply.

  "If Iran's case is sent to the Security Council, we will respond by many
ways, for example by holding back on oil sales," the president told the
Dubai-based newspaper.

  Iran pumps about 4 million barrels daily, making it the second-largest
producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi
Arabia. Crude oil exports normally account for about 80% of Iran's hard
currency income, and an oil official last month projected revenues from oil
exports this year at $43 billion.

  The U.S. does not purchase Iranian oil, but it would be affected by a
substantial Iranian curtailment of oil supplies as that would raise the price
of oil on the world market.

  Ahmadinejad's remarks came after a resolution passed by the International
Atomic Energy Agency last month put Iran on the verge of referral unless Tehran
eases suspicions about its nuclear activities. Iran insists its nuclear program
is for energy purposes, while the U.S. suspects Iran is trying to build nuclear

  Since the U.N. nuclear agency's resolution, other Iranian officials have
threatened to resume uranium enrichment and block U.N. inspections of its
nuclear facilities unless the U.N. nuclear agency stepped back from its action.

  Iran has also threatened to use trade to punish countries that voted for the
resolution, and last week the parliament began debating a bill to force the
government to scale back cooperation with the IAEA.

  The president criticized the resolution and foreign countries, however, for
trying to impose their will on Iran.

  "I said I'll do everything in order to uphold our national interest,"
Ahmadinejad said of his campaign promises ahead of the June presidential
election. "One of these things is that we will have access to the nuclear
supply process.

  "We don't want to be at war with the world," he said.

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  10-01-05 1620ET

Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ info:

2005-10-01 20:20:52 UTC
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Gas prices to stay high 6 months, official says
By James R. Healey

The nation's energy chief says it will take six months for U.S. energy production and prices to return to pre-hurricane levels, and he hints at energy shortages in the interim.
That's the most blunt and pessimistic estimate yet of how long the energy disruptions caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita will affect the United States. But it could help Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman sell Americans on a conservation campaign he plans to detail today.

"How long before we return to normal? It's hard to know, because we have not yet got an assessment" of damage from Rita, Bodman said in an interview with USA Today on Friday. "We were just getting on top of that with Katrina when Rita hit," he said. "We're going to be another two or three weeks before we get all that" damage information.

"We're going to go through a very challenging time the next six months, is my guess," Bodman said. "Most of us have viewed energy availability as a kind of right of citizenship," he said, and might have to rethink that while refineries are restarted, pipelines repaired and natural gas processing resumed. "Both in terms of gasoline availability and (prices of) natural gas and heating oil, we're going to have some problems."

The government conservation plan, reminiscent of exhortations during energy shortages of the 1970s, will ask Americans to turn off lights, change thermostat settings, drive slower, insulate homes and take other steps to trim the country's energy consumption. 
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In reply to: theflasherman on Sunday 02/10/05 10:37pm



Many thanks for that.


Seem like we can now be held to ransom by virtually any large producer.

World demand currently is exactly the same level as supply according to the latest numbers with both running at 84 mmboe a day ... so Iran doesn't even need to cut off its nose to spite its face ... with virtually zero excess production capacity if it was to reduce supply things would get even more interesting if it cut by only 1 mmboe day let alone its total of 4 mmboe per day. Things really not getting rosier out towards 2010 either with new wells barely keeping up with fields running dry. Its the growth of demand which has been running at 1.5 mmboe per day increases every year in recent times which will decide it short term. We cannot possibly have demand in 2010 at 91.5 mmboe per day and possible supply only running at 80 mmboe per day then ... it doesn't work out.


Saudi Arabia could come to the rescue but its doubtful. If it tries to pump even more than it is it runs the real risk of damaging the oil bearing structures and lowering the long term amout it will be able to recover from its fields. As for the claim they had more reserves and were about to double the total reserves they had .... the Saudi total has remained around 240 billion barrels of remaining reserves since 1989 despite pumping out 50 billion barrels from existing fields .... there have been zero new large fields found and oil experts even doubt the actual reserves numbers being quoted by Saudia Arabia now due to the lack of discoveries and the fact they have pumped over 20% of reserves in the last 16 years but have had zero new large fields found.


If the Saudi guys claims were correct ... which I doubt reading various commentaries on the topic .... a 200 billion barrel field or fields yet undecalred by the Saudis would cover an absolutly massive area of ground over 15,000 SQ KM. Saudi Arabia is a large country but has been picked over by oilers since the 1920's and frenzied searches went on all over the country in the 1960's and 1970's ... I somehow doubt they missed even using 2D seismic a target like a Jumbo sitting in the middle of a cricket ground.


Interesting times.



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In reply to: kahuna1 on Tuesday 04/10/05 08:56am

I doubt if the Iranian threat is anything more than rhetoric, and the this is reflected in the markets reaction.


Twilight in the Desert by Mathew R Simmons is an interesting read if you are interested in the capabilities of the Saudis to continue to adequately act as the swing producer for the world. As Kahuna asserts, and current oil prices prove that they can't play this role at the moment.


Flash, I hope that you have a GSLO on that gas position - it could easily gap either way.




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