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oil news (winds of head):


Oil prices held on at the end of the week, set to close out mostly flat from a week earlier. Oil prices are trapped between horrific downside risks, mostly in India, offset by growing optimism in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe.


India’s oil demand in doubt. India posted several days of record-setting Covid-19 cases, and Bloomberg reports that demand for fuels could plunge by 20% in April. “Given the grim situation, it’s likely that the lockdowns could be in place for several weeks or even a couple of months,†said Senthil Kumaran, head of South Asia oil at industry consultant FGE. “India’s total key oil products demand will see a significant pullback.â€


Biden pledges 50-52% cut in GHG; other countries up commitments. President Biden announced a goal of cutting emissions by 50-52% by 2030 at the climate summit on Thursday. Canada boosted its target from a 30% cut to a 40-45% cut. Japan raised its target to 46%, up from 26%.


Natural gas rally over. Bank of America said that natural gas “throws in the towel,†noting that the month of March saw weaker-than-expected industrial demand and warm weather, leading inventories to end the month at 1.78 trillion cubic feet, higher than anticipated, which erased the inventory deficit relative to the five-year average.


Natural gas production on the rise. Even as demand hit a lull, production in natural gas is ramping back up after a roughly 18-month hiatus. Rystad Energy came out with a note predicting strong production gains for the next three years and beyond. Both Rystad and Bank of America said the Haynesville shale, in particular, is looking strong.


China promises pullback on coal. China’s Xi Jinping said that China would “strictly limit†coal consumption over the next five years and then begin phasing it out after that.


U.S. Senate to repeal methane rollback. The U.S. Senate will repeal the Trump-era pullback on methane regulations next week.


New York sues Big Oil. New York City sued ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) for deceptive ads claiming their products were “emissions-reducing.â€


Chevron lobbies U.S. against Myanmar sanctions. The New York Times reports that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is lobbying the U.S. government to not place sanctions on Myanmar, following the military coup and brutal crackdown that has unfolded in the country since February. Chevron operates a large natural gas project in the country along with Total (NYSE: TOT).


White House reveals climate finance strategy. The White House unveiled its international climate finance strategy, which includes pushing lending arms of the government – U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the Export-Import Bank – to virtually eliminate fossil fuel lending, except in extraordinary circumstances.


Small companies buy Big Oil’s assets. The supermajors are pledging billions in low-carbon energy investments and committing to net-zero goals over the next decade. Meanwhile, smaller oil and gas companies are snapping up the shed assets.


Are peak demand forecasts accurate? Goldman Sachs believes oil demand will peak in 2026, while BP Plc believes the highest global demand growth is already over, and International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks the peak could come later, in 2030. However it’s framed, it is clear that the oil and gas industry is facing a turbulent future.


UN-backed climate finance group managing $70 trillion announced. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a UN-backed group of assets managers, banks, investors, and insurers launched this week. The group's 160-plus members are responsible for over $70 trillion in assets, and “will work to mobilise the trillions of dollars necessary to build a global zero emissions economy and deliver the goals of the Paris Agreement," the announcement states. Participants include Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Munich Re, the Zurich Insurance Group and many others.


California to ban new fracking permits. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to announce a ban on new fracking projects beginning in 2024.


Lithium era just beginning. It’s been a big week for lithium, with a multi-billion-dollar mega-merger, a new major production deal in Chile, and funding for Europe’s first large-scale lithium refinery in Chile. Things are looking up for the vital battery metal.


Halliburton sank on “moderating†fracking forecast. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) beat the consensus on earnings but saw its share price sink after it said that it expects fracking activity to moderate in the U.S. in the second quarter.


Total terminating contracts in Mozambique. As militant attacks show no signs of going away, Total (NYSE: TOT) is terminating contracts with some companies in Mozambique related to its $20 billion LNG export project. Analysts say the delay on the project could be at least a year.


Biden admin unwinds Trump auto policy. The Biden administration will restore the authority to California to set its own fuel economy standards tighter than federal standards, following the Trump administration’s effort to repeal that authority.


Public lands drilling pause extended. The U.S. Department of Interior extended its drilling pause on federal lands through June, a policy that mostly only affects the southeastern corner of New Mexico.


12 states call for ICE ban. 12 U.S. states called on the federal government to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035.


Kinder Morgan $1 billion Texas windfall. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) said that it took in a $1 billion windfall from the Texas electricity crisis in February. “[W]e view KMI’s large beat as a ‘zero-sum-game,’ meaning someone (i.e. buyers of the gas) had to pay the bill, which could make for some interesting utility earnings calls,†Citigroup said.

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The oil industry looks set for a hugely profitable but accelerated decline towards extinction, as mounting climate pressures constrain the supply of capital needed for investment, driving up prices and cash flows for producers.


That is the theory gaining traction in the market after a landmark few months that have ramped up the forces behind the transition to low carbon energy beyond anyone's expectations.


An energy analyst says the perversity for oil markets is that the forces of the energy transition will have a far more profound impact on the supply side than on demand for a number of years.


Respected consultancy FACTS Global Energy estimates global oil demand will still increase by 9 million to 10 million barrels per day from 2019 levels by the time it peaks in the mid 2030s, then declining by just 7 million barrels a day by 2050.


While net zero 2050 is an admirable aspiration, oil is not going anywhere


The analysts note that capital spending on upstream oil and gas production has in the past always been strongly correlated to changes in the oil price the year before, so the gains in oil prices so far this year should point to spending jumping by more than 30 per cent in 2022.


But nothing like that is expected to eventuate given changing corporate priorities, with international integrated oil companies leaning towards returning cash, paying down debt and directing capital to the energy transition, while upstream producers are focusing on strengthening their balance sheets given the question marks around long-term access to external capital, they said.



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There are a lot of these stories appearing.... do they have merit? There is money to be made if you get it right!


Oil Up, Woodside Flat, Opportunity Knocks

The fundamental value of a Resource company can be assessed essentially by two things ; the commodity price and everything else ..... like production, costs and discount rates.

As company production plans and costs position change relatively slowly, it is the more volatile commodity price that generally sets the shorter term share price movement. ....






Energy stocks disconnect gets 'crazy'

The share prices of Australia's major oil and gas producers remain stubbornly subdued despite bullish commodity prices, leading to concerns that the sector is being unreasonably discounted on ESG grounds that have rocketed up the agenda for investors since the onset of COVID 19.


Despite Brent oil prices now back above $US76 a barrel and LNG spot prices in Asia at the highest for this time of year since 2013, the market values of companies such as Woodside Petroleum and Oil Search remain well below pre pandemic levels, in contrast to many European and US peers.....








And from Antipodes Partners


We discussed inflation at length in a recent podcast episode, but if you had any doubt about the reality of inflation today, take a look at the staggering rise in the price of oil. It was March last year when the oil price crashed to US$20 a barrel and oil futures contracts turned negative for the first time in history. Today, oil is back trading near 3 year highs at around US$80 a barrel.

This is a result of excitement around reopening and more disciplined supply. On a longer term view, even with trends towards decarbonisation, we think the oil price can find a base at around US$50 to US$55 a barrel. ESG concerns will ration capital expenditure from oil majors, while demand will continue to be supported by non OECD countries for some time....

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another day on the oil market

The OPEC+ crisis sent oil prices lurching as the cartel left the market wondering whether supply will rise or fall.


Crude jumped briefly to the highest in more than six years in New York after a bitter fight between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates blocked a production increase.


Within hours, the rally had turned into a rout as traders speculated that the breakdown of talks could ultimately result in higher oil supplies. In particular, there was evidence that US shale producers, the nemesis of OPEC+, had taken advantage of the initial rally to lock in the price of their future output, according to bankers and oil executives.

swing producers !!


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Price was referring to what military experts call a drone attack against a ship last week that killed a British crew member and a Romanian crew member aboard the ship Mercer Street.


Other U.S. officials say the situation is moving quickly, but it appears armed Iranian gunmen had boarded the seized tanker





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Crude oil closed higher at $70.66 (+1.35%) as the impact from Hurricane Ida on the US Gulf Coast continues to linger. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan noted that Hurricane Ida has been unique in having a net bullish impact on U.S. and global oil balances. Technically the view remains, crude oil appears to have completed a three-wave corrective pullback from the $76.98 high to the $61.82 low of August. The overnight close above recent highs and trend channel resistance at $70.50ish indicates that a retest and possible break of the July $76.98 high is underway in the coming weeks. Stops should be placed below $66.90




oil stock would be a good bet ----for the near term at least!!! imho



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