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OIL - OPTISCAN IMAGING LIMITED


theflasherman

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Every now and then CNBC drops brent from their ticker at the top of the screen and only reports Nymex.

 

That usually prompts me to check brent and tapis price at this link

 

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

 

Based on todays Tapis price, ozzy producers are getting just over USD50-AUD75 /brl

Thats a big premium over todays WTI price of USD36/brl

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Hello brierley,

 

I am aware that tapis price is used to calc the retail price of fuel in this country, (the refinerys use the highest price they can to rip us off) but not so sure that all ozzy oil producers are paid on the basis of the tapis price. I may be wrong, anybody care to comment.

 

 

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Well, Brent and WTI are hardly relevant are they, being on the other side of the planet?

 

Aussie crides tend to be light. Brent would be closer in composition. Tapis is the Asian market hub therefore wholly appropriate for Aus. IMO. I think your judgements are harsh (Note - I did not say wrong!).

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not so sure that all ozzy oil producers are paid on the basis of the tapis price.

 

Not all

 

NZO/PPP- Tui field, AED-Puffin field, Cooper basin producers to name a few sell at Tapis or slightly higher.

They are well separated geographically within the Asiapac region but all produce light sweet crude.

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Surely we must be getting close to a rise in oil prices?????

Despite the flagging economy, US demand for oil products continues to move upward towards last yearÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s consumption levels. According to this weekÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s report from the EIA, total US demand for petroleum products is now down by only 1.3 percent as compared with last year, and gasoline consumption over the last four weeks is actually up by 0.1 percent as compared with the same four weeks in 2008.

The EIA and IEA released their short term forecasts earlier this week. As could be assumed, both see the demand for oil falling as a result of the global recession but not by spectacular amounts. The IEA now is forecasting that consumption in 2009 will drop by 1 million b/d to 84.7 million b/d vs. the high of 86.1 million b/d in 2007. Both agencies report that OPEC production continues to fall. The IEA says OPEC produced 950,000 b/d less oil in January. The EIA says OPEC production fell by 1 million b/d in the 4th quarter and will fall by another 1.6 million in the 1st for a total reduction of 2.6 million b/d. The EIA notes that this is about two-thirds of the 4.2 million b/d OPEC has pledged to cut.

The EIA notes for the first time concern about whether the large OPEC cuts will not lead to shortages and higher prices later in the year. The agency says that the demand for OPEC oil in 2009 should average 28.8

 

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Hi Davo,

In spite of all the noises from OPEC and other oil watchers, the poo has been range-bound for nearly 3 months between $35 and $47. Right now, it's re-testing the bottom of that range. If the pre-Xmas Low of $32.40 were broken, my next-lower target would be $26. If, on the other hand, support is strong enough around current levels, we may well see some relief rally. However, looking at the weekly chart, I find it doubtful that we'll get beyond $50 anytime soon.

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arty, we have to watch what we are watching in the crude space.

 

On 6 Feb, I have:

 

Tapis - $46.96

Brent - $43.63

WTI - $40.24. This is the most tracked benchmark in the popular media.

 

Last Night:

 

Tapis - $51.18 (up)

Brent - $47.27 (up)

WTI - $34.00 (down)

 

There appears to have been a fundamental decoupling of these regional markets, do doubt reflecting the US stock and demand situation vis a vis the rest. I haven't noticed a disparity of this magnitude before, but then I haven't been paying close attention to them either (preferring to follow the herd with Nymex/WTI).

 

Can you chart Tapis and/or Brent? It would be interesting to see their tracks alongside Nymex.

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According to The International Crude Oil Market Handbook, 2004,1 published by the Energy Intelligence Group, there are about 161 different internationally traded crude oils. They vary in terms of characteristics, quality, and market penetration. Two crude oils which are either traded themselves or whose prices are reflected in other types of crude oil include West Texas Intermediate and Brent. Comparing these two crude oils with EIA's Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost (IRAC), the OPEC Basket, and NYMEX futures is important to understand the differences among the various types of crude oil that are often referred to in the press and by analysts. Generally, differences in the prices of these various crude oils are related to quality differences, but other factors can also influence the price relationships between each other.

 

West Texas Intermediate

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality and is excellent for refining a larger portion of gasoline. Its API gravity is 39.6 degrees (making it a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“lightÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ crude oil), and it contains only about 0.24 percent of sulfur (making a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“sweetÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ crude oil). This combination of characteristics, combined with its location, makes it an ideal crude oil to be refined in the United States, the largest gasoline consuming country in the world. Most WTI crude oil gets refined in the Midwest region of the country, with some more refined within the Gulf Coast region. Although the production of WTI crude oil is on the decline, it still is the major benchmark of crude oil in the Americas. WTI is generally priced at about a $5 to $6 per-barrel premium to the OPEC Basket price and about $1 to $2 per-barrel premium to Brent, although on a daily basis the pricing relationships between these can vary greatly.

 

Brent

Brent Blend is actually a combination of crude oil from 15 different oil fields in the Brent and Ninian systems located in the North Sea. Its API gravity is 38.3 degrees (making it a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“lightÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ crude oil, but not quite as ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“lightÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ as WTI), while it contains about 0.37 percent of sulfur (making it a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“sweetÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ crude oil, but again slightly less ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“sweetÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ than WTI). Brent blend is ideal for making gasoline and middle distillates, both of which are consumed in large quantities in Northwest Europe, where Brent blend crude oil is typically refined. However, if the arbitrage between Brent and other crude oils, including WTI, is favorable for export, Brent has been known to be refined in the United States (typically the East Coast or the Gulf Coast) or the Mediterranean region. Brent blend, like WTI, production is also on the decline, but it remains the major benchmark for other crude oils in Europe or Africa. For example, prices for other crude oils in these two continents are often priced as a differential to Brent, i.e., Brent minus $0.50. Brent blend is generally priced at about a $4 per-barrel premium to the OPEC Basket price or about a $1 to $2 per-barrel discount to WTI, although on a daily basis the pricing relationships can vary greatly.

 

 

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