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theflasherman

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CHINA GOES THE BIG SQUEEZE

QUOTE
Freddie and Fannie shares had recovered a tad since they touched 20-year lows on Monday on speculation that a government bailout will leave the stocks worthless. Help, I suggest from other central banks, has poured in.

The US will need all the help it can get and the spectre of possibly two hurricanes to hit in the coming week right in the nation's oil patch still not fully recovered from Katrina is awesome.

The newfound strength of "Mac and Mae" had observers reflecting they might not need the US government bailout with some going so far as to suggest that the two might return to health. But the hole "Mac and Mae" have dug is almost unfathomable.

The "quiet bailout" that Brad Sester had been quietly reminding us of through the Council on Foreign Relations amounts to the Chinese buying debt on a deal the new administration has not signed onto.

Meanwhile a host of reports show that individual foreign investors are dumping US securities, so it has to be central banks that are doing the US cavalry impersonations.

The "quiet bailout" just got a lot louder.

David Hirst is a journalist, documentary maker, financial consultant and investor. His column, Planet Wall Street, is syndicated by News Bites, a Melbourne-based sharemarket and business news publisher.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/china-...80829-45q8.html

(smh has been buying in some news as short on journos)

 

This doesnt begin to account for the losses to the chinese through currency! Taken for suckers? its worth reading

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In reply to: tricha on Saturday 30/08/08 06:55pm

Tricha,

 

Thanks for that - I'll look it up

 

one I have recently read : -

 

Jeremy Leggett, "Half Gone"

 

dwindling oil will force

 

the Good --- Solarization

 

the Bad - Coalification - where abundant coal becomes the easy way out

 

he reckons that the EasyWay will be hard to resist even though he is financially committed to SolarPower and Micropower generally

 

 

 

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In reply to: tricha on Saturday 30/08/08 07:55pm

Yes I was most impressed as well as the rest of the programme.

I have been listening to Jim and John and their guest speakers for a couple of years now and am much better informed as a result...they have been so accurate. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

 

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Go to www.theoildrum.com for updates on Gustav.

 

Briefly, it looks like Port Fourchon/LOOP is going to eat a Cat 3.

 

This the the latest from Chuck Watson

 

" Here's the 23:00 8/31 update: Synthesis of data available at this time: The Loop looks to take a direct hit. Estimating minimum 14 days down time assuming it holds up to specs. Peak waves probably in the 40-45 ft range offshore, so any remaining older stuff built to the older air gaps are probably toast; the newer stuff (55ft gaps) should be OK, but will take a few wave hits. Some potential for undersea slumping and scour - bet we loose some pipelines. GOM overall production will probably take at least a 3-5% permanent hit; pending new wells. The models yield these data for the next 60 days as of right now (longer term under the fold):

 

14 day: 8.07 MMBBL ( 50.12% normal), gas 59.56 BCF ( 66.06% normal)

30 day: 19.84 MMBBL ( 57.51% normal), gas 140.53 BCF ( 72.74% normal)

60 day: 42.75 MMBBL ( 61.96% normal), gas 298.11 BCF ( 77.15% normal)

 

Bunch of minor damage to "refinery row" (in along the river); most should be back up in a week or so, if product is available.

 

Humanitarian note: this isn't a great track for NOLA, but the weakness we're seeing on the normally stronger side of the storm may save it from worse damage."

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In reply to: apache123 on Monday 01/09/08 12:39pm

You have to feel sorry for those poor buggers in New Orleans. Gustav is on a path for a direct hit.

Read a story about one poor family who took 3 years to return & rebuild their home.

Only moved back in a few months ago. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/sad.gif

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In reply to: cooma on Monday 01/09/08 10:08am

QUOTE
Yes I was most impressed as well as the rest of the programme. I have been listening to Jim and John and their guest speakers for a couple of years now and am much better informed as a result...they have been so accurate

 

The repeat of the Lutz Kleveman interview in the 3rd hour was one of their best imo.

Still remember it from first hearing it in 2004.

The predicted conflicts around Georgia etc added an important factor in the peak oil equation, ie peak accessable oil.

 

http://www.netcastdaily.com/1experts/2004/exp012404.mp3

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Not sure about these estimates, they seem a bit extreme, but Gustav has zagged west, although intensity still at cat 3. POO falling - down over $3

 

I also don't know where they get "insured losses" Most drilling operations are not insured.

 

QUOTE

RMS also said that Gustav's movement through the area's dense region of offshore oil platforms may cause insured losses of between $2 billion and $7 billion, according to RMS analysis.
This would be a result of structural damage and interruptions to oil production, as well as unintentional spills, it said.
"Losses to the offshore platforms will be extremely sensitive to Gustav's extract track and intensity. A slight shift to the west than the current projected path would mean Gustav will hit more platforms, and if it strengthens the damage will be greater, so the losses will be in the upper range," Ziehmann said.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stor...ist=SecMostRead

 

On a side note - what the heck are all these new anchors doing standing outside in New Orleans as they tell everyone else they have to get out??

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In reply to: Danville on Monday 01/09/08 11:08pm

Weather systems have always been an interest for me in predicting surf but the GOM oil factor adds another aspect and has me reading a blog daily by Jeff Masters around this time of year - For those interested, today's is one of his most active entries with a whole procession of storms lining up after Gustav

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...6&tstamp=200809

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