Jump to content

China the monster.


kahuna1

Recommended Posts

Michael Pettis is a fake. He has been given a credibility he does not deserve. His credibility rests with the ostentatious fact that he lives in Beijing and therefore his research/explanations about China must be truer. Unfortunately he is very biased while his observations might be true but his conclusions are mostly opinionated beliefs. I started to read his articles a while ago noting that he was watching and writing about China from Beijing, and after a while I could tell that his pessimistic views on China were based on his beliefs. China has always had huge problems and challenges ever since the communist party lead by Chairman Mao took power in 1949. I am an optimist, I confess that I have faith-like confidence in China based on belief-defying achievements made by China. The glass is half full. For Michael Pettis, the glass is always half empty. China is rising, the trend is your friend, and China bears are going to be proven wrong!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

I would no more accepts the opinions of Mr pettis than I would the questionable statistics put out by the Chinese authorities.

Mr pettis opinionated beliefs are probably no worse than anyone elses at least they are based on real world observations.

You made the statement

Unfortunately he is very biased while his observations might be true but his conclusions are mostly opinionated beliefs.

However, you then go on to say that

I confess that I have faith-like confidence in China based on belief-defying achievements made by China.

Below is a quote from Jane007wang

I have lost count on the number of dire forecast about China or its economy over the past 10 years. They have all been proven wrong. This time around, it's not going to be different. There are, will continue to be forecasts made by economists/analysts about how and why the Chinese economy will implode, how and why the Chinese society will explode, etc etc. I tell you mate, they are wrong, they will always be wrong. Not because of any theories of economic models that have gone wrong on China, but because they don't understand that this 5 thousand year old civilization, modernized and revitalized, is determined to reclaim their rightful place in the world. And they will get there. The richness and the deep depth of the wisdom, determination, and perseverance of the Chinese nation are beyond their comprehension. This is not a 1+1=2 proposition. You will be surprised. And I have no doubt about it.

 

It would seem that you are equally as guilty as Mr Pettis in terms of basing your comments on "beliefs" rather than analysis.

Command based econmies have a pretty high failure rate. Maybe this time it will be different.

China may well claim their "rightful place in the world". The problem is, there may be not a lot left to claim.

 

Mick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In one of Pettis' blog I added my comment and questioned him on his frequent favourite that China must open her market to the US imports for a balanced trade or China will be doomed (or to that effect), etc... I simply put forward an argument that China's trade with the USA is about 24% whilst her trade with the EU is about 25% or more, with the rest of the trade with Asia/Latam making up the balance - my question was how could he make a case that China will be doomed due to the trade imbalance with the USA alone? I further questioned him on how "Realistic" is his view when most of the time he is talking about China vs USA without considering the rest of the world?

 

How credible is Pettis' view when he is only talking about a single trade partner (the USA) to China but assuming and concluding it is the only one that matters? China's trade relation is multi-dimensional as reflected by the many trading partners she has and not as that single dimension as he has made out to be?

 

I stopped reading him after I failed to get any sensible response... there's a clear bias in his view when come to trades between China and the USA, and that his view is mostly American centric, which is quite typical if you were to observe how Americans relate their problem to others - it's always someone else's fault and never theirs. An American living in China does not automatically take that away.

 

 

ps: There's this very simple observation that everyone can make, even for Pettis - the progress in China is visible and is tangible - the high rises, the urbanisation, the trade volume (for eg with Australia, with Australia's numbers). And it's not just Australia that is doing well trading with China, the rest of the Asia, including Japan and SKorea are benefiting from it. If Pettis find none of this is credible or visible then I think those who choose to listen and look up to him need to ask this question - is he blind and deaf? If he is, why do they choose to listen a person that can see but is blind, that can hear but deaf?

 

The need for change frankly should come from the USA, something I believe Pettis is reluctant to address.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hi jane

 

good to see you back. :)

 

I don't think that Michael Pettis is a fake ...

 

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/i...p;expert_id=444

 

... but, like you and others here, I happen to disagree with much of his viewpoint. I would perhaps prefer him to spend more time in Shanghai or Dongguan talking to Chinese industrialists and less time on a Beijing uni campus talking to international hedge funds and institutional investors, less time hanging with the Beijing music set and more time travelling in regional Chinese cities, and less time becoming a specialist in Latin American economics and more time in China in the late 90's when China last sorted out a banking crisis.

 

Anyway, despite his imperialist attitudes, he is one of the better english language sources of China info I know of. Andy Xie is another, but he is also fairly gloomy these days.

 

Anyone know of any other bloggers that regularly put together montages of China news and views?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is one...

 

Most economists didn't begin to estimate how much the US dollar hegemony benefited the US until around 2000. I will generally sum up the operations of the "imperial theorem" or "power theorem" behind of US dollar hegemonic system.

(1) The virtually unlimited issuance of US dollars for the purchase of global resources and commodities. In other words, as the issuer of the world's reserve currency, the US exports "liquidity service" while other countries pay consideration with their resources and commodities for their dollar reserves. The world demand for the US dollars (excluding the US) exceeds $500 billion each year.

(2) Imposing an "inflation tax" on the whole world, indirectly acting as "deadbeat" through depreciation of US dollars (depreciation of treasury bonds and other securities issued by the US).

(3) Purchasing industries and enterprises in other countries with US dollar credit.

 

(4) Investing in higher-yielding assets in other countries, but restricting foreign capital to control US enterprises or carry out foreign direct investment.

(5)Manipulating exchange rates of the US dollar against other currencies to earn interest rate returns.

(6)Swallowing foreign currency reserves accumulated by other governments through the scale effect and lock-in effect of the huge US dollar bond market. According to Professor Koerber from Harvard University, the greater the sums that foreign countries invest in US treasury bonds, the more difficult for them to get it out, and the higher the liquidity of the US dollar bond market, the fewer choices they have.

 

(7) Most of the US dollar assets of other countries are deposited in the US-owned banks, and foreign exchange reserves and investments of many countries are entrusted with the Federal Reserve, which effectively reduces international financial risks for the US and substantially strengthens other countries' dependence on the US.

 

(8) Since the US borrows money with its own currency, it need not deal with the problem of Currency Mismatch that troubles other countries. If any other country had experienced the US financial tsunami of 2008 it would already have gone bankrupt. The US, however, is secure and Bernanke can issue all the dollars he likes to rescue the market.

(9) US dollar is the main settlement currency in international trade, and US companies don't need to bear the exchange rate risk.

 

(10) The dollar's status of hegemony ensures that the US has the final say in international financial rules, and absolutely controlling rights of World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

In short, the United States is a "mega-bank" or "giant venture capital firm," earning from high-yielding assets with low-cost liabilities (raising funds). Therefore, although the scale of its external liabilities is much larger than its external assets, it still has access to huge net income...

 

** Points/scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 I believe are in "operation" in Australia. Watch the Aussie inflation vs the RBA rate hike.

 

Here's the homepage

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mullokintyre said

"It would seem that you are equally as guilty as Mr Pettis in terms of basing your comments on "beliefs"......"

 

yep, guity as charged. But, at least I have recent history to back me up: China has been growing regardless. And I will be proven correct in future development.

 

Simply put, a proud nation with a 5000 years of history and civilasation, after recent 200 years of humiliation and pillage and abject poverty, is now tasting the sweet fruits of hard work, persistence, determination. The nation is ever so proud and positive about their future, and you think the development, the re-emergence of the Chinese nation is just a 30 year blip?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahh MS Wang,

Simply put, a proud nation with a 5000 years of history and civilasation, after recent 200 years of humiliation and pillage and abject poverty, is now tasting the sweet fruits of hard work, persistence, determination. The nation is ever so proud and positive about their future, and you think the development, the re-emergence of the Chinese nation is just a 30 year blip?

 

 

The most recent years of humiliation, pillage and abject poverty were largely caused by itself via the great leap forward, cultural revolution etc etc of the Autocratic leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. The same organisation is still running the joint. Being proud and positive is a sometimes a good thing for a nation, but that does not necessarily reflect so well in the eyes of the rest of the world. Nationalistic fervour has been the root cause of numerous conflicts over time.

 

Americans are proud, the Germans are proud, the French are even prouder; but one empire builder is on the wane, the other two have seen their empires crumble over time.

 

And no, I don't think the emergence of the Chinese nation is a 30 year blip. However, planning to replace the Americans with the Chinese as the arbiter of all things in the world is not something I would contemplate without a fair degree of unease, despite the obvious shortcomings of our American brethren.

Mick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are not repeating the previous erraneous policies that have failed China. China has openned up, and China has learnt a great deal from others. The current system is not communism, not socialism. It is more capitalism which China learnt from others. China will never be a new USA because we suffered greatly from the imperilists. And we will not do the same to others what we don't want others do to us. That is an ancient Chinese wisdom. All we want is a prosperous country, free from foreign invasions and pillages.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A That is an ancient China wisdom. All we want is a prosperous country, free from foreign invasions and pillages.

 

The Tibetans, Uigurs, Taiwanese, and probably a few others might disagree with that statement. Neither might Stern Hu.

 

The hysterical reaction to the showing of a propaganda film at an Australian film festival, or a visit of the Dalai Lama to any country,

is not the actions of a mature country that

will not do the same to others what we don't want others do to us.

 

Many years ago when I worked in America, a black American History professor told me that the biggest problem Americans have is that they firmly believe that everyone else wants to be like them. To them, it helped to explain why so many were keen to emigrate , either legally or otherwise, and they were happy to take so many refugees.

 

Jane, its fairly obvious that you are a Chinese National, proud of your country and its achievements.

Don't become like the Americans, and be so blind to the way others perceive you.

 

Mick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...