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In reply to: grahame11 on Friday 27/07/07 05:59pm

Thanks for the the response grahame.


I agree, from the perspective of a secondary indicator, like the slow-stoch, it looks oversold, but I would have thought that raw price action was more important. I tend to find that support lines are often broken when secondary indicators are looking oversold. It has often fooled me into holding while the price takes a major tumble. What I then notice is that the secondary indicators then cross up, coincident with a bounce that lasts up to the new resistance line, by which time they approach overbought levels, and then they down trend resumes.


imho, the market is due for a healthy correction. More than the 6-7% we had earlier this year (up to 15%). Otherwise we could be getting set up for a big crash, like prior to 1987, where there were no prior natural corrections in the lead-up period and a series of sector bubbles were popping while the market was soaring.


The market is still exhibiting good fundamentals at this stage, which suggests to me that this possible correction is consolidation prior to continued bullishness into the next year.


Oh well, we shall see what the near future brings eh.

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I was expecting today..... didn't expect it to be so vicious though.... and I was expecting that bounce to the resistance level to hover there a little longer.


A break of the 6000 support level would put us into a secondary correction. A 15% correction would give us a target of 5400 - 5500.


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In reply to: romaioi on Wednesday 01/08/07 11:40pm

Posted this in the cash is king and index trading threads aswell. I should have just posted it here but didnt think about it!!


Still personally think we're due for further correction!


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  • 2 weeks later...
we've hit 5650, which was one of my (and others) technical targets. Now we shall see what it does from here. Hopefully no more pain.
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  • 1 year later...

How have each of the ASX GICS sector's performed over the last 12 months (my very-very rough-hand calculations to 10/10/08) compared to overall market?


Healthcare (XHJ) -6%

Telecommunication (XTJ) -14%

Info. Technology (XIJ) -19%

Consumer Staples (XSJ) -25%

Energy (XEJ) -27%

Gold (XGD) -33%

ASX 200 (XJO) -39%

Utilities (XUJ) -40%

Materials (XMJ) - 41%

Financials ex-property (XXJ) -43%

Metals & Mining (XMM) - 43%

Financials (XFJ) -44%

Industrials (XNJ) -48%

Consumer Disc. (XDJ) -51%

Property Trusts (XPJ) -55%


Healthcare - the 'new' defensive play?


Louise Yamada (respected TA analyst) has Energy, Healthcare & Materials as 'overweight' for Developed Pacific region in recent analysis (page 15) -http://www.lyadvisors.com/samplereports/TechnicalPerspectivesGlobal.June.6.2008.pdf


Are Materials & Energy sector just taking a 'breather' before 'taking off' again?


What will be the sector to emerge & out-perform, when the market makes some form of upward path down the track?


Me, not sure - just watching, sitting on my hands & carefully assessing the state of play ATM. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif


Stay well in current times,



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By coincidence, I've recently undertaken a similar analysis on varying time scales.

The result confirms your ranking, krk004 - surprise surprise http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif


Looking at trend and momentum in weekly and monthly charts, I find XHJ to be the stand-out sector, moving in a strong uptrend (apart from this week, but which sector hasn't lost ground this week?)


In contrast, I find Materials and Energy still in a downtrend and choose to tread cautiously in those two sectors. Telco is TLS, which I don't find appealing. IT is more to my liking, waiting especially for CPU to regain strength.


Lastly: The Finance sector has been smashed last week, but since the Low in mid July, seems to have consolidated with an upward bias. If we eliminate the handful of "baddies" (no names please) we are left with quite a few good prospects to consider.


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QUOTE (arty @ Friday 10/10/08 11:15pm)

Finance sector, weekly chart.

Volatility notwithstading, the last 3 months seem to have arrested the "rot" - again discounting the last week.


btw, at the end of August, I posted a chart for XMJ in the Commodities thread; while I had been optimistic at first, I quickly adjusted to facts and provided several updates on 4/09 and early October. No need to repeat.


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In reply to: arty on Saturday 11/10/08 02:15am

Good job arty,


XHJ (Healthcare) is only sector to still be above it's 200 day ema.


Otherwise, it's pretty much been carnage!


Following on from my link to article by Louise Yamada, I did happen a little while back get a look at an interview she did with welling@weeden (June 27, 2008).




Interesting comment;


"Our concept is that weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re in the midst of a 20-year shift of capitalization weightings in the market, a process which we havenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t seen since the 1981 - ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢82 period.


And at the same time, weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve been seeing all these other 20-year structural reversals: Gold moving into a new bull market, breaking its 22-year bear market that began in 1980; the CRB breaking out, and oil breaking out in 2004.


These are all structural moves, and many of the young people in the business have never experienced a structural shift.


But if you think about the capitalization shift thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s taking place, the financials in 1980 were 6% of the S&P 500.


Last year they were 22%, and now theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re, you know, 16%, probably on their way back to 6%, single digits.


By comparison, youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve got the energy sector, which was 27% of the weight in the S&P in 1980 and fell to about 6% in 2003.


It has now grown to 14% and is probably going to grow back into the 20s, and maybe to 30% eventually.


ThatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a structural shift.


Certainly, all of those structural shifts are going to encounter interim setbacks.


But theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve all got quite a way to run."



Although she is referring to USA, I think an argument can be made similar to here in Aust.


Further comments;


"Actually, what I am implying with the term hybrid market is that 2002 probably did mark

the initiation of a global structural bull market, and the U.S. stocks that have been participating in that, in fact, remain in up trends to this day.


Even though you have secular downtrends in motion for consumer discretionary stocks and for financials and for healthcare, and for a host of other issues, some of the corrections that have taken place and are taking place in the marketÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s leadership sectors ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ in industrials, energy, materials and utilities ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ are really pullbacks in ongoing uptrends.


Include railroads, too, in that list of leaders, of course. And, yes, they can pull back, as weÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ve seen, by 20 - 30 - 40 points, and itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s not fun for the investor.


But those sectors have retained their uptrend progressions, and that is whatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s sort of fascinating.


So if those global leadership stocks are now suffering a bear market, we would consider it a cyclical bear market."



My thoughts are that Energy (& Materials too) will 'eventually' have their day again, as part of an on-going bull market.





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  • 3 weeks later...



"Bear-proofing a portfolio


For those who remain fully invested in equities, Rothchild cites the Leuthold investment group's following list of nine "defensive sector selections" that performed well in eleven prior market declines:


Soft drinks, Pharmaceuticals, Food suppliers, Major oils, Household products, Telephones, Tobacco, Electric utilities, Gold stocks."




Not sure exactly what 'performed well' meant though?

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XPJ - ASX200 - REIT (Real Estate Investment Trusts).


An investment made here in early 2001 would currently be showing you a -25% (total) return to current day!


Nice classic Elliott 'Impulse' wave down from the highs of early 2007.


Due for a bounce somewhere/some stage?


But, a pre-cursor to greater damage in the wider property market for overall Australia?


Some say the sharemarket 'leads' the economy, does (or will) the Property-component of the ASX lead the general Australian property market?


Starting to look that way...... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/weirdsmiley.gif

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