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In reply to: early birds on Monday 20/03/06 09:33pm

early birds,


Prudential is in the FTSE 100, but not sure of its weighting. The following stocks make up 50% of the weighting.








BHP Billiton


Rio Tinto





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Still clinging on to my shorts at 5975 early bird, after another scare last night initially.


I hate the look of the 4 hour STO, now already more than half way down. Will this limit the downside move perhaps EB?


What's your expertise on this?


I thought since it has already gone down so much, may be we won't see the gap at 5910 closed until possibly next week?


IMO I can only see 50 more points downside from here the max (ie, down to 5930), hope I am wrong.

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In reply to: crowman28 on Tuesday 21/03/06 09:07am

morning Crow

-------What's your expertise on this?




C'mon Crow, I'm just like all of you. some times right some times wrong.



anyway we here to share with eachother so here is my 1 Bob.


4h chart shows clear double top, if 4975 falls gap will be filled IMHO. I had 5c tiny shorts ATM.

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Early bird, fair call, we are still learning from each other and no one has a sure win plan yet.


I am still coming to grips what McLaren means "the bull campaign is complete"?


Does it mean?


(1) start of a secondary correction asap


(2) New highs won't be seen for at least another 4 months after the secondary correction


(3) It may retrace 50% from the bottom to the top of the bull run. Then assess on how things go from there


Very vague definition, may be Happy can enlighten on this?

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In reply to: crowman28 on Tuesday 21/03/06 12:05pm

It is easy to see the vertical nature of this advance the past week.  This will exhaust into a high and complete the leg up.  I donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t have a strong time cycle to help us find the end through ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“TIMEÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ and what would be the normal resistance has been temporarily breached so we are dealing with something unusual.  This advance has also exceeded in price the other legs up and that is unusual for a final leg up.  So there are some things technically that are abnormal about this trend


crow, not sure where you got those points from. I took the above from Mclaren's Monday report on the FTSE.


From what I can see, everything looks like the top has been reached. Mclaren says breached.


Fibonacci from the beginning to the end of the last leg suggests 38% would be just under 6000, where the FTSE finished on Monday.


A 50% retracement of the current leg would be around 5780. Of the complete bull run would be around 5160.

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In reply to: ausonic on Tuesday 21/03/06 01:08pm


this is one of those guru's view.



John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns, said in a television interview that Bernanke's speech was consistent with his expectation that the Fed would hike rates to 5.25% before pausing.

Maria Fiorini Ramirez, head of an investment firm that bears her name said Bernanke was very clear in contrast to his predecessor.

"I think the Fed feels very comfortable about economic growth and don't seem too shy about a tightening a bit longer," Ramirez said.

Jim O'Sullivan, managing director of UBS Investment Research, said "there was no sign that the Fed is about to stop," but added that the speech "was not particularly hawkish either."




i still think that "glass is half full" for current market. it needs a little pull back before it be able to go higher. of couse it's only my view.

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