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In reply to: happy2 on Tuesday 15/11/05 11:50pm

FTSE got two tops around 5480, and you might guess this could be a double top. If you short it around current level 5440, you can place your stop just above 5480.


Market has struggled to match previous high of 5500, and it has climbed all the way from 5140 to current level without consolidating.


So all points to a short term short trade. May be you'll find support around 5350 being close to the 30 day moving average.


80% means your chance of making a profit in this trade is quite high.


If you want confirmation, wait for it to close below 5425.

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QUOTE (crowman28 @ Tuesday 15/11/05 11:59pm)

Thanks for your analysis, Crowman. You make a valid point about the climb from 5140. It has been a steep hike.


Actually, I am waiting for the PPI in the states to see whether I shall go long for a scalp tonight. Otherwise it shall be a short.


To put a stop just above 5480 would be a possible loss of 40 pts. You certainly believe in give a bit of leeway. I find it difficult to place a stop so far out. Maybe this is because I trade these things intraday.


Although, I am sure I would make more money doing some weekly trades. Especially since the overnight market can move quite radically in one direction or the other.


FTSE came close to support at 5424 when it hit 5430. But I was expecting it to come down some more. Could have picked up a few pts but I understand what you say about the fall below this support level. Evidently, FTSE is very underweight tonight compared to other European Indices.


I thought you might have had some statistic for the 80% probability, but you were saying that the probability of making money on a short was high.

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In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 16/11/05 12:19am

Please don't quote me on the 80%, I was just implying it is a better trade shorting it than long it. If it bounces back to 5450 tonight, then I'll phone the night desk to help me do the trade.


Don't know how many contracts you are doing, but one contract only costs you around $24 per point.


Check DAX and other European markets haven't fallen that much don't forget.


My profit target with this trade is possibly above 5350. Then I'll try to go long around those level and sit tight with it.

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In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 16/11/05 12:31am



Went long on the PPI and then went short. I was in profit, but when got caught closing my position. Market moved too fast and looks like it could go higher tonight. Although, I am not sure what is going to happen. Much will depend on the DOW getting through the 10700 mark.


If the DOW doesn't break 10700, I am sure that the FTSE will go down.



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In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 16/11/05 02:34am

Hi happy, the DOW finished mixed, got a feeling it may be due for a correction for a week or two perhaps before going through 10700 resistance.


I still see a short position being taken for the FTSE, but with a tight stop. Tonight's action will be crucial, if it closes above yesterday's high, then obviously my call is wrong.


Lets see how it opens first.


Remember FTSE is due for a correction since it has this massive hike from 5140.


I am concentrating on trading the Nikkei for the time being since it suits our time zone better.

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In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 16/11/05 09:51am



FTSE can have a mind of its own. Its recent rise was meteoric, but then so too has been the ASX. Much will depend on what is going down in the US.


S&P500 was down last night, but the ASX rallied.


From some reports, US is expected to rally. The PPI was not thought to be as bad as it looks. Although, I believe that tonights CPI will lay the cards on the table. One US options trader believes that the CPI will be positive. The PPI was largely touted as positive, too.


The FTSE usually follows the DOW. Although I have seen the DOW go up and the FTSE go down., and vice versa. Come to think of it, the ASX is starting to act independently of the US market. The FTSE is in a primary up trend, still.



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In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 16/11/05 04:21pm

Hi happy, now I am unsure how the FTSE will behave tonight as the Asian markets and ASX all performed quite well today.


If the FTSE continues to show weakness on open, then it may be shorting time.


But if it opens 10 to 20 points higher, then I prefer to watch the course of trade.

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