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Katwomyn

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todays downswing is prob a solid shake out, i am happy to be STO (short) while the southrn momo remains intact to about 52% of the prior upswing

 

keep in mind this picture that's painting what the commercials are selling

the question is not are they selling to distribute what they dont want the question is are they selling to short agressively

clearly retail and trend chasing managers are rampantly bidding prices

buyer beware

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$xauusd on its way to completing a pullback, before another strong upleg, most likely the zone 1520-1504

 

falling below 1470 in the front month contract would be a trend signal that the upside is completed already

the back ground is uber optimism from retail bulls but commercials are extreme opposite postion....again, buyer beware

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

So, will the paper derivitives finally be stomped on and stop drpressing PM prices??

From WOP

Bloomberg News reporters Tom Schoenberg and Liam Vaughan broke the story that JPMorgan Chase is under a criminal probe by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) over charges of rigging gold, silver and other precious metals markets. Six traders who worked on the precious metals desk at JPMorgan Chase have been indicted thus far but this is the first report that the bank itself is also under a criminal investigation. This marks the fourth criminal probe of the bank in the past 8 years by the U.S. Department of Justice with the bank pleading guilty to three felony counts in two of the prior criminal investigations.

 

Throughout this serial crime wave, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase has kept Jamie Dimon in his seat as Chairman and CEO. Despite knowing that three of the bankâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s traders had been charged under the criminal RICO statute and that the investigation could very likely result in criminal charges against the recidivist bank itself, the Board recently awarded Dimon a pay package of $31.5 million for last year âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ buttressing presidential candidate Bernie Sandersâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ message that the business model of Wall Street is fraud.

 

There was a time in America when a criminal probe of the nationâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s largest bank, which holds $1.6 trillion in the life savings of moms and pops at more than 5300 bank branches across the country, would have been worthy of a front-page headline. Not today. Crime and fraud are so de rigueur at the bank led by Dimon that not one major newspaper ran the headline on the front page or anywhere else in the paper.

 

Corporate media is, in fact, complicit in letting Dimon and his Board off the hook. Dimonâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s public relations flacks have teamed up with mainstream media to create the false narrative that Dimon is some kind of economic genius and a Wall Street superstar. Bloomberg News itself has perpetuated that myth by portraying Dimon as the man whose greatest mission is to take good care of his customers âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ despite the hard fact that federal regulators are perpetually documenting how the bank is ripping its customers off in brazen fraudulent actions. As recently as November 10 of last year, Lesley Stahl of the CBS investigative news program, 60 Minutes, interviewed Dimon and strolled through the bankâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s trading floor without ever asking Dimon about the unprecedented felony charges the bank has been forced to plead guilty to under his tenure.

 

It is instructive to compare the treatment of Australias major Banks following the banking Royal Commission with the treatment of the Major US Commercial Banks, given that all of them have been charged with various crimes since the GFC. Only one Bank leader, the head of We;ls Fargo has been charged ( see Wells chief fined.).

 

Mick

 

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Zero hedge has an interesting tory on gold dissappearing from the UIK.

The world of international "finance" has become so opaque that we mere mortals have no idea what the scheming bastards are up to .

This is a story about a chart. A pretty astonishing chart.

 

A chart that has all sorts of consequences, including misleading ministers, distorting our view on the nature of the UK economy and creating a genuine mystery about what's going on in the bowels of the UK economy.

 

Here's the chart in question:

exports of gold from the UK...For the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

 

It's a staggering chart.

 

Just to put that spike into context, Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

 

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on recordFor the vast majority of history they were near zero (average monthly level apt Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports were catapulted higher.

 

It's a staggering chart.

 

Just to put that spike into context, Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£12bn (what those two months of gold exports add up to) is the total annual output of a country like Jamaica. It is more than we typically export, over a two month period, to ANY single country, including US or Germany (our biggest trading partners).

 

It has serious consequences. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. We've always had a deficit. In December, thanks to the Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£12bn gold exports, Britain recorded its first monthly trade surplus on record...

Since then The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has started trying to strip gold out of the figures. Indeed the gold chart above is a new series they've just published.

 

However ONS are bound by international regulations to include gold in the headline numbers. That massively distorts them. After all, the UK is the world hub for gold trading. Any movement/change of ownership of gold bars counts as imports/exports even though it's hardly what anyone would consider an "export."

 

You might've thought all of that would mean our politicians would think twice before boasting about those dodgy headline trade figures. Not a bit of it. This week, Liz Truss, MP for South West Norfolk, and UK Trade Secretary, tweeted this about them:

 

Every bullet point in her tweet is wrong if you strip out gold exports:

 

UK biz exported Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£674bn of goods & services (not Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£689)

 

A 2.9% increase on 2018 (lowest since 2016; not 5.0%)

 

We don't know how much exports to non-EU countries rose; ONS hasn't worked them out ex-gold

 

It's not like exports are doing badly. They're at 30.4% of GDP once you strip out gold. That's one of the highest levels in decades, though it is down on last year. Perhaps that's why Liz Truss used the dodgy headline numbers which look far better because of that Ãâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£12bn of gold exports.But none of that solves the real mystery here.

 

Why did gold exports spike so dramatically?

 

One thesis doing the rounds is that it has something to do with this story: Poland repatriating some of the gold that's been in the Bank of England's vaults since WW2...But it's not that, because central bank gold movements (monetary gold) aren't included in these gold statistics. Anyway all that Polish gold still wouldn't account for all the gold that changed hands in Nov/Dec. It's equivalent to Barbados's GDP, not Jamaica's.

 

As far as I can divine here's the answer.

 

A US bank with London gold vaults shifted some of that gold from being "unallocated" to being "allocated".

 

Effectively it moved it on its balance sheet.

 

The gold stayed in the same vault but technically it shifted from UK ownership to US.

 

In other words, a couple of clicks in a bank's spreadsheet caused the biggest fluctuation in Britain's trade figures in modern history. At least that's the most plausible explanation.

 

Though it raises further questions: Why? Is the bank in trouble? And who owns the gold anyway? And is it just a coincidence that all of this occurred as The Fed was forced to unleash unprecedented liquidity to support the repo market...

 

Short answer: we may never know. No other sector is as cloak-and-dagger as gold. What we do know is that crazy stuff is happening beneath Britain's national statistics and it's time we started paying attention to it.

 

I think it is interesting that the start of this massive gold shift coincides with the massive victory for the pro brexit forces in UK elections.

I also wonder if the departure of the Chancellor of the Exchequer has something to do with it.

I just love a good conspiracy theory.

Mick

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Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow...
And they did ðŸÃ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“ÂÂÂ

 

In a note on its commodities outlook, Goldman argues that the outlook for lower US yields and weaker equities "creates further upside risks to our gold forecasts with gold pushing towards $1,750 should the coronavirus be contained during Q1".

 

However, if the virus disruption stretches into Q2, "we see substantially more upside from here - towards $1,850, depending on the magnitude of global monetary policy response".

 

Adding that "we see such a rally being driven by the continued search for yield, increased demand for portfolio diversification and higher political uncertainty" with gold being "a strategic allocation to protect a portfolio from geopolitical risks such as the current outbreak, de-dollarization and negative real yields".

 

A lot of fancy words on offer by Goldman Sachs but the bottom line is that as long as yields still depressed and easing policy looks set to continue, gold will definitely find support one way or another. The coronavirus outbreak only serves to offer additional fuel to that....

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysi...-sachs-20200221

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