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If you would listen carefully i'm simply asking you basic questions for the basis underlying your post. No more no less. I'm not being problematic I simply believe that your posts are highly inaccurate and without basis. However, if my thinking is wrong then i'm happy for you to give your more detailed explanation which might further explain your rationale.


Sorry but i'm not just going to accept your word that the Chinese government aren't buying gold just because you say so.

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The HUI Index has had a very good night in NY.As readers may know,not GolDBug,IO Bug,CopperBug or Property Trust Bug.Any Bug crawling up the wall is a Good Bug imo.

So,is it time to buy Gold Stocks? Think it is,with the usual caveat that it is easy to be wrong in this game.(ie. have stops)NST had a great day yesterday and should continue North.The P+F Chart of NCM looks very favourable...(flower,please don,t tell me about their production costs and that they are not a pure Gold play.....every man and dog already knows these highly secret facts)Just for interest will examine a few other Goldie Charts and report back..not that I believe anyone is highly interested!

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The way Kitco view both the news affecting gold and the COMEX market: (suggest these are also influences bearing on the AUD)

Spot gold now USD1470-----AUD1436. COMEX chart is Wednesday's.



Kitco News: Comex gold futures ended the U.S. day session with sharp gains Wednesday, boosted by upbeat economic data coming out of China and by bullish "outside market" forcesÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂa lower U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. June Comex gold last traded up $24.20 at $1,473.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $21.50 at $1,474.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.079 at $23.885 an ounce.China on Wednesday reported a trade surplus of $18.2 billion in April compared to expectations of a $15.6 billion surplus. Both imports and exports exceeded market expectations. Asian stock markets were supported on the China news. Also, better-than-expected German industrial production data for April was reported, at up 1.2% when a 0.2% decline was expected. The better China and German data gave a boost to the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.





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For those that care: Rumours swirled around markets indicating once again the FED were due to announce the coming end of QE, this affected both the Forex market, and all commodities, but strangely enough the gold ETF "GLD" actually made its first purchase of gold for many weeks, buying 3 tonnes.


Whether that signifies anything or nothing time will tell.


Gold now held in the trust:




Value US$49,641,145,891.06

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Don't you think it is time tothink about some other commodities including neglected commodities? For examplespeople use gas and food oriented commodities in good and bad times.


If I am correct Gold investmentis based on safe heaven concept. On other hand some commodities can have demandand supply mismatch due to climate threat and less arable land in the future. Itis common to see drought in Africa time to time. It is same in other countriessuch as USA and Australasia now. Prolonged drought situations will reduce inventorylevel for some commodities. When we see drought in major grain producing countriessuch as USA, Russia and Australia there will be great demand for grains. Similarlywhen we see drought in Kenya, India or China not only grains but also tea and coffeeproduction can go down in the future.


I believe still the possibility that gold could retest themid-1300s before stabilizing.

Although some soft commoditiesare trading in the futures market some commodity such as tea, salt are not tradingthere except listed companies link to particular commodity globally.

If we analyse financial historyno commodity, currency, stock or any other stocks can go straight up or down. Timeto time there will be day for each and every commodity including commoditisesuch as coffee, sugar, salt, tea and potatoes.


Thanks and best regards

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Hi mw,

Analysis of the numerous factors which may result in a commodity rising or falling is too difficult for this trader.There are very informed folk who have contrary opinions when such analyses are undertaken :who does one believe? This,in a nutshell is why some of us here are T.A. operators:we don't need to decide who is the guru . The Market itself is the TA guide.

If one examines the forecasting records of the vast majority of Fundamental Analysts the findings are anything but good. A couple of years ago every Aussie bank were of the opinion that the AUD---then 80 cents was overvalued and would fall in the next 12 months.It actually rose to 90-100.These guys are not fools:the incorrect call demonstrates how difficult F.A. is. Many TA traders made a bundle out of the AUD,while the FA team kept on insisting that the AUD was overvalued.

Don't agree that Commodities go 'straight up and down'. " V " shaped reversals are actually quite uncommon. Usually there is a longish churning period at tops and bottom before a new trend begins.An example is the AUD.For quite a time it was churning between about 1.06 and 1.02. Now (imo) it has broken down and should go lower--have put my money on it.Noticed in the W/E press that most gurus don't think anything special happened last week,and that the AUD could bounce back,even go higher with a couple saying it may go lower.So,we will see.


Soft commodities are played out in the Futures market...still.Years ago,Gold,S+P 500,Oil and Currencies were all only traded on the Futures and to get set one needed fairly serious capital.From memory (used to play around with Options on futures,Gold Futures etc) a single contract was $100--$200 k.,and that was 30 years ago.To Trade Currencies,unleveraged one needed $500k.

These days there are many more ways to trade with less capital but all these are expensive compared to the real futures market.

Best of luck with your investing,and......keep it simple!

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