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While gold is not looking good at the moment, weekly chart has not yet broken down although it too is looking sick. Looks to be pretty oversold, but the MACD looks as though it has some continued weakness to come for a bit longer.


Cheers Charles



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Posted on another BB this morning:


Why Gold will crash!


1. The US will save billions of dollars by withdrawing all US troops from from Iraq. Peace will reign in the country and elsewhere.


2. Terrorism will stop. The terrorists will realise that they should not target the world's oil supplies and kill innocent people. They will sit down to negotiate their non-negotiable demands. Oil will be pumped out in such quantities so as to reduce the price by at least $20.


3. The US will be seen to be bringing all their massive budget deficits under control.


4. A very tight money policy will be initiated by the Fed. The US dollar will soar with no bad repercussions for the US such as worsening their trade deficit or sending the country spinning into a deep recession.


5. We will stop seeing "Made in China" appear on consumer items around the world. Instead it will be "Made in the USA."


Form your opinion about this. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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I encourage readers to check out www.financialsense.com

The article dated 7 may warns of an impending financial storm.

The belief is that gold will have its day,the low POG is only a temporary diversion

from what is really happening in the markets

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The daily chart shows that gold is currently oversold but as I said earlier it is not obvious at this point which way it will go. I agree with you jbeatty that none of your points are likely to occur and that the medium to longer term outlook I would think is strong but who knows. Certainly the short term appears to be weak for a bit longer if there is to be a turn around. Thanks for the link Isis, I will read it later.


Cheers Charles



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Any idea how often the link you posted is updated. I was interested in getting an update of the weekly analysis of gold. The link you posted doesn't have an update yet.


Cheers Charles


Gold bounced off the monthly 38.2 retrace level of 390 recently. This is the support at this point in time.

An interesting look at commodities is given on:


Kevin Riordan gives free seminars which are very good - recommended. He is very helpful and trades commodities using a variant on the Gartley 222 trades for those interested.

"The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision" -
Maimonides (Spanish born Jewish philosopher 1135 - 1204)

Before trading, each trade should be made with adequate research beforehand.
These opinions given above are my own alone, and are not to be considered as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
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Gold took another smash last night and appears to be sitting around the 50% retracement (376.75 USD & 62% retracement 363.71 USD) from recent highs and still looks to have more softness in its price. Certainly looks like a double top has formed, at the same time appears to be oversold.


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I suspect it's headed for the ~$365 support ..... maybe even ~$350. Below that $320 (don't even think about it!). Starting to look a bit overdone, like everything else in markets.


In AUD terms base metals actually lifted a bit last night (mainly because AUD/USD fell).


Thanks for the up-to-date charts Charles.



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